Archive for category: Public

Many people are looking at this almost perfect Bullish Pennant forming in Gold. Many are also looking at the C.O.T. report that came out Friday and seeing bearish implications.  Yes, Bull Flags can fail, but for now it remains a bullish trading pattern, so lets discuss Gold here using a few of todays charts from the premium report.

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GOLD – Gold tagged the $1250 area overnight. That is the top of the flag.  Gold could break out from here, but since we are not at the Apex,  GOLD MAY ALSO POP & DROP TODAY (SHORT TERM) IF THIS FLAG HOLDS IT BACK. This flag has eased overbought conditions meaning that Gold could still break higher in time . 

GLD Monthly  ( Feb ended Monday). Thats a bullish chart .

Silver-  Silver actually dropped Monday and then bounced off of support.  This can be viewed as a test of the break out and also may be relieving overbought conditions. ( I don’t know why volume didn’t appear correctly here).

This is a Monthly view of GDX, since Feb ended Monday.  This surge with that kind of volume is exactly what you want to see. 

 

I had posted this chart last week with a triangle that I had drawn in at the lower left corner. I’m pointing out that when a Flag pattern breaks out upside,  one usually buys the break out and puts a stop below the apex. If it fails, you will be stopped out.

I also pointed out a couple of Miners that have ‘Lagged’ a bit and may be setting up to run even higher if Gold does Pop.  ( AGI  – Imagine thinking  that $2.40 to $4.30 is lagging)  🙂

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So why do I like the set up in AGI?   Look at the similarities between these next 3 charts. Long bases can lead to excellent rallies.

 

So AGI could break higher out of that base if Gold decides to break from that flag.

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What if Golds flag was only a 1/2 way point, and the RSI & STOCHASTICS gets embedded? That would prove to be a huge move out of the lows.

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Yes,  The C.O.T. was showing that Commercial shorts are as high as they have been at previous tops.  Will this flag fail?   It might, but I’m not going to jump the gun and short this bullish move higher.  I’ll just continue to tale it step by step, using and honoring stops along the way.

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Best wishes and thanks for being here.

 

~ALEX

Are you basking in the Traders paradise?  At Chartfreak, trading has been good in Precious metals and Commodities.  Lets take a look at a few of our expectations going forward and review some trade set ups that are still working out favorably.

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SPX WKLY –  After warning that there were signs of another  sell off coming in November,I have recently been expecting a rally to draw the bulls back in.  I expect that we could see a repeat of the run up last September, as highlighted.

 

OIL REVIEW

 

Back on November 13 , I had a $26.09 Target for Oil on a weekly chart.  I also pointed out a $24 target later , if the selling reached extremes.

Last week the XLE didn’t make new lows, but Oil did, dropping to $26.05.   That along with cycle timing caused me to look for Oil to possibly see a temporary bottom here.

 

I used these charts in my February reports.

Oil  gapped up recently , so I drew my expectation of a gap fill and a tag of trend line. Then the move higher.

We got a perfect tag of the trend line.   I still believe that Oil may be finding a bottom unless this trend line breaks?

Notice that Some Oil Stocks bottomed last summer, well before Oil.

 

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GOLD SILVER & MINERS

GOLD– We caught the strong run up in Gold and Miners right from the shake out lows in GDX.  On Feb 17 I thought that a FLAG could form to consolidate recent gains, while individual Miners may still rally or play catch up, so I presented this idea and a few alternative ideas as well.

You can see that the Bull flag is almost complete.

 

SILVER –  Silver never broke out, so it may do that this week or it may just continue to consolidate.

I definitely believe that we may be seeing the next phase of the Bull Market in Precious metals starting, as we surge out of the lows. Nothing goes straight up though, so lets also discuss what an eventual pull back could look like, as it may present another buying opportunity.

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This is one that would shake many people up. I don’t think that it is the most likely path, but it needs to be viewed to prepare us for any possibility.

These 2 charts were in my last public report. I favor these views.

#1

 

#2

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What about this Traders Paradise?  Past public reports have pointed out some of our trades in Miners  and  commodities.  Lets review a couple more here.

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SWC – This stock was pushing on the 50sma and was a good set up last week.

SWC –  SWN has broken out after reporting earnings. I expect higher prices.

MUX –  We recommended a 2nd buy on Jan 26 at $1.17

MUX  – today it is at $1.75.  If Miners pull back in a significant way, I can see a test of the 50sma as possible.

ABX – $ 7.65  inverse H&S with good volume pops.

 

ABX currently at $13.42.  This may just form a handle, before another strong mive higher.

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Here is some good news too.  Some of the commodity stocks presented  in past reports as ‘trade set ups’ now appear to be breaking from their bases and could have great upside potential  for the long term. 

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CENX – Feb 3, nice long base with a shake out, ran and pulled back to $4 at the 8 ema.

CENX   Has moved from $2.63 to above $7.   A pullback may be another buying opportunity. Look back at how ABX and NEM ran from their long bases.

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FCX was mentioned as bottoming near $4, and then a  2nd buy was at $6 as it broke above the 50sma.  FCX is near $8 today. This also may be bought on the dips if it remains healthy.

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Feb 3 – VALE at $2.32 , this was a low risk entry, since your stop would be placed below the lows.  Price  is now trading above  that blue triangle.

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X Daily–   Notice that US STEEL is  forming a multi month base with divergence.  This has a lot of upside  potential if it recovers from here.

 

Recent reports  featured AA, AKS, STLD, TCK, VALE, FCX , etc., and most of them now look like bases that may become longer term bottoms.

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I’ve been discussing the possibility of the Equity Markets topping and the Bull returning in Precious Metals and Commodities for a while now.   Many public reports have been posted at Chartfreak.com to highlight these events.  I liken it to a large freighter ship turning around in the ocean.  They can’t turn on a dime, but gradually they will reverse course and head in the other direction.   Is that what we are seeing here in the markets today?   Many Miners and commodity stocks look to have built their bases, and they could even become buy & hold investments longer term if conditions remain this way.  Why not join us as we continue to monitor the situation? Chartfreak.com

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~ALEX

In a recent weekend report I discussed what I thought about the USD going forward, also using the recent action in the XJY as a historical guide.  It could affect Gold in a big way. This is important, since The Big Picture of the USD has paused and may be preparing to choose a direction to move in again soon.

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USD – After a strong run up in 2014, the USD paused and flagged. It could drop & back test the trend line, that would help Gold further. As a bull flag, it would run higher.  That might not be so good for Gold.

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We are also watching Oils activity

WTIC WKLY LONG TERM– Oil looks close to putting in lows, but it has for a while now. Read the charts.

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GOLD SILVER & MINERS

 

I had been following the possible break out in XJY:USD and in miners.  We see it here in this Feb 12th chart.  This evidence still favors Lows in Gold, Silver, and Miners,  as discussed in a prior report.

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GOLD  I had 2 views for Gold, and it looks like this one may be playing with a pullback.

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    I would expect that Golds price would eventually test the 200sma, but this can occur later when the 200 is rising.  Shown here is a possible 38% retrace back down to the top of the cup shown near $1180.  A 50% retrace is $1154.65.  Either is possible, time will tell.

 

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GDX  MONTHLY UPDATE –  This chart posted a week ago is one that I have been following for a while. I also posted an updated one in this weekends report.

 

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30 yr chart of the XAU.  Did you miss the last move?  It may just be the start of a larger run.  That move that we just put in looks tiny from this view.

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We also reviewed some of the recent gains of the miners that we had discussed before.

MUX– Look for the base.

The run has begun, and could mimic the multi week drop on the left on the way to the top.

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Even the ‘cheaper’ priced Miners have been running quickly with large %-Gains.

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TGD was pointed out before it ran.

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BAA and AUMN  are ready to launch in my opinion.

So we are definitely seeing many reasons for believing that the Big Picture is changing as expected.  The Bear market lows could definitely be behind us with that classic shake out move in miners in January. We see Gold and Miners breaking above prior Intermediate cycle highs.  Many that were stopped out and left behind may now have to buy later and that could push this higher too.  The set up is very encouraging  and we will be trading it and following it to the best of our ability here.  Some “Mining Stocks” may act individually and set up even when Gold itself is pulling back,  and that will be noted too.  We saw this type of action when several Miners bottomed months, even yrs ago.  Other may now have reason to do the same.   I will be hunting for and sharing trading opportunities in this sector with that in mind.

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Sign up here, click and scroll down

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~ALEX

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I am currently doing several studies with very bullish implications for the GOLD & SILVER market.  Some areas that I have been tracking for months have been published here in the public area too.  Right now I see things that indicate that we could be very close or, or even experiencing the bear Market Lows,  and I will be writing about it in my weekend report.   Yes, I know that everyone is waiting for sub $1000 gold to buy, but everyone doesn't always get what they want in the markets, do they?  Could it be that they will be left behind, waiting?     No Bias, No Gold Bug Fever, No Emotions, my report will cover just some facts.    Let me explain...

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Notice this interesting occurrence for a change

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The HUI has had bear mkt rally after bear market rally since 2012, but each 'cycle' could not surpass the last one from low to high.   Lower highs and lower lows is a down trend.   THIS CHART is a first, and it is just 1  sign of change to cheer about.  We'll zoom in...

HUI CLOSE UP

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