Golden Surprise

I want to open up part of my weekend report discussing GOLD, SILVER, and THE MINERS.  I have been saying that using Cycle Timing ( among other things) , we are due for an UPSIDE SURPRISE.   Let me get right into the discussion that I had with my premium readers this past weekend…

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USD DAILY  – This was July 15 and if you read the chart,  I thought that the USD could bounce once more, but then drop.  Why? LOOK AT THAT MACD WEAKNESS, and overhead resistance.

 

 

USD DAILY JULY 19  – So we got the bounce and the USD was rejected at resistance. A bear wedge was also now being pointed out by me. A drop in the USD is good for GOLD…

 

USD DAILY NOW – Friday showed that day 8 was likely the top, The USD Dropped below the 10sma. I see a swing high and this is overbought. The USD selling off should help Precious Metals…

 

USD WEEKLY – Rejected again and again at the double resistance on a weekly, it looks like the USD is ready to finally drop ( and  GOLD should rally).  What?  The Long awaited ICL in Gold?  I think so.  Let’s discuss Precious Metals now that we’ve seen the US Dollar situation…

 

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

GOLD KEEPS DROPPING, BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE MANY TIMES.  I really have.  Often people keep trying to buy the dips & remain very bullish when an ICL is due, but they must keep getting stopped out until fear prevents them from believing that GOLD is still a good buy.  This is the very kind of selling that is designed to “Flush out the weak hands” and to “Change the bullish Sentiment by emotionally scaring people away” while bigger players can enter.

You will read many  reasons why ‘Precious Metals are toast’,  ‘Gold is an Old relic with no value’, etc. etc. at an ICL. Ignore the crowd mentality, an ICL will form and Gold is going to rally.

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COT – The COT , as of last Tuesday, was  slightly better than last Julys ICL, and better than Decembers 2017 too. Gold dropped a bit more last week, so it probably even got better.

 

 

GOLD DAILY  – Gold put in a reversal on Friday.   Look at the steep drop of the last 3-4 weeks, but my propitiatory indicators are not dropping.  That is BULLISH, we should be at or close to the lows.

 

CLOSE UP GOLD DAILY FRIDAY REVERSAL – Here is the reversal Friday.

1. The lows of Thursday were not taken out, and the highs were, that is a swing low.

2. If Gold moves higher, we get further confirmation

3. Remember that the USD looks set to drop on a daily & weekly

4. We are LATE in our cycle timing

 

GOLD WEEKLY  – A very Nice Reversal Candle on the weekly chart.  I am using Green Arrows to show that once the lows are in, you get ‘weeks’ of upside as it sling shots out of the lows.  That would make my day thumbs up emoticon

 

SILVER WEEKLY  – Reversal Candle on Silvers weekly chart too.

 

GDX WEEKLY – Miners started to sell off, but nothing like Gold.  THAT is a big deal. We could see Miners do a quick FLUSH below the lower trend line, but so far Miners have been resisting Golds sell off.

 

GDXJ – GDXJ Is on support at this point.

 

And then you have the Miners,  which I have tried to put on display here to show how they are being accumulated despite the Metals selling off.   I have pointed out strong Miners racing higher as Gold sells off, like KL, GORO, RGLD, etc.

 

GORO-– Would you know by looking at this miner that Gold has been selling off?

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Now lets take 1 more quick look, I am now going to show you some of the  Miners that may still  be near or at their lows, because they could quickly play catch up with a GOLD ICL.  Then our weekend wrap up is finished.

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TRX –  When I say  Jim Sinclair, what do you think of?  Yes, Gold.  🙂  I have owned  Tanzanian Royalty in 2018. As Gold sold off to new 1 yr lows, this is actually trending higher. That was a solid reversal at support on Thursday July 19. Also the rally from March lows to May highs was roughly a 100% gainer for the alert trader. I sold that rally to lock in gains, but re-entered recently.

 

DRD WEEKLY – I mentioned that I bought DRD a couple of days ago, and now I see the weekly chart as a break out & back test. It was up 6% last week.

 

MUX WEEKLY – The weekly chart of MUX does not look like “Gold has been selling off and will not stop” like you read in ‘popular’ bearish reports.    It has been slowly rising for weeks and Popped this week 10%.  The Weekly RSI is over 60. This is not bearish action at the lows,  it is bullish, even  though GOLD is at 1 year lows.

 

EGO WEEKLY  –   I see EGO as a large inverse H&S too, and it closed above the 10ma on a weekly chart. If the RSI on a weekly basis is about to cross the 50% as Gold sells off to 1 yr lows,  that is also Bullish action, not bearish.

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I AM BULLISH.   MANY MINERS ARE SETTING UP NICELY.    Our Current set up in Gold looks Bullish too.  We are due for an ICL in Gold & we have a reversal late in our daily cycle as of Thursday.  On top  of that, the USD is set to drop into an DCL, and it is even coming due for an ICL over time.

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The sling shot has been stretched back over the past few weeks,  I’d love to see Gold start to Make Our Day this week!  We will watch for some upside follow through to ‘confirm’ whether or not  GOLDS LOWS are in place.   It does look very good, with Miners leading the way and the USD topping.    party blower smiley

 

~ALEX

 

SIDENOTE:  Recap & Review of 2 other sectors.

 

AKS – Last week I mentioned that I liked other metals too.  I used this chart of AKS, and mentioned to see  X, CLF, CLD.

 

CLF  –  CLF had some pretty sweet follow through Friday, so the other Metals may still have some too.

 

And the URANIUMS were pointed out weeks ago as having bullish set ups. This was UUUU breaking out in June…

UUUU – 3 weeks ago,  UUUU was up 25%, and then consolidated.  Others did this also.

 

UUUU – After consolidating, and quite frankly, looking a bit ugly Wednesday on that POP & DROP, it put in a reversal candle Thursday and popped 13,50% Friday. This is a bullish set up.

 

 

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A Matter Of Perception

 I want to post something here that I pointed out to my subscribers last week.  This is a great lesson on a day when Gold & Silver are selling down again.

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 Every now and then I do a little ‘lesson’ to keep us balanced.   This one has to do with the difference between ‘trading’ & ‘buy and hold’ for weeks or months.  The problem with Buy & Hold for some is that the daily wiggles can be uncomfortable to them.  No one wants to see a down day give back some of our recent gains, but it happens in buy & hold.   What can give us proper perspective?

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Staying focused on the bigger picture.  It is all about Perception.   I am both a trader short term and a longer buy & hold under the right bullish conditions, so let’s take a look at perceptions.  Enjoy!

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CDE #1– CDE has had many small runs in 2018, like a trading range between the green arrow to red arrow.  I would say that people that own it using ‘buy & hold’ may even be a bit sick of this action.  What you want to do is step back and get a bigger picture view of the situation.  As noted in prior reports, CDE did excellent in 2016. Let’s step back…

 

CDE #2 – So stepping back, we see a ‘Base’ is forming and a break out & run could tack on some nice gains rather quickly  (Silver stocks do run quickly once they get going). This could quickly run to $9, however…

 

CDE #3– By really taking a step back and looking at what we are dealing with, we see what I would say is a massive bullish pattern forming.  Look how CDE ran in 2016,  from under $2 to $16!   This year of 2018 has been the bottom right hand side of what looks like a massive base that could form a multi-year’cup’ on a run higher.  CDE from $8 back to $16 would be 100% for the buy & hold investor, and then a break out could send it even higher, if these rally like they did in 2016.

 

 

LAST WEEK, CDE WAS TRADING AT $7.20 AND STARTED MOVING HIGHER AGAIN.  WHAT HAS CDE DONE SINCE I PUT THIS IN THE  REPORT?  SILVER HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN MONDAY & TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS IS THE CURRENT CHART OF CDE

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CDE WEDNESDAY 7-11 –   $8.45.  CDE continues Higher, even with Silver dropping this week.  The BIG PICTURE VIEW would help one to avoid selling the ‘wiggles’, as long as the Precious Metals sector remains bullish  (and my analysis shows that it is).

 

When I was pointing that out in AG as a ‘BUY’ in April, it looked similar to CDE now.  A long descending wedge type of pattern had formed there too. This was my big Picture chart of AG for April 13.  I mentioned that buying AG under $6 would probably look like a gift in the future.

 

AG –  Ag now trades near $8.  Since the Feb lows, AG has begun to put in a steady run higher, breaking above the down trending channel.  It has done this WHILE SILVER SOLD OFF TOO.  Imagine when Gold & Silver run higher out of an ICL?  CDE, AG, and other Miners should all  do very well.

 

If Conditions remain bullish in this sector, whether it is inflation creeping in or the USD dropping into its 15 yr cycle low over then next few years, these Miners can become big winners in your portfolio.      Some already are, and I have pointed out the leaders like KL, GORO, and so on in my reports.  THEY ARE TRENDING HIGHER AS GOLD SELLS OFF TO NEW LOWS.

Try not to completely miss the train as it leaves the station by at least owning some Miners.  I have been recommending them for a while now, and I will continue to  cover individual miners as they set up to break out & move higher too.

Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

~ALEX

 

Don’t Get Left Behind

The Theme picture here speaks a thousand words. At Chartfreak, we've covered plenty of bullish set ups in the General Markets like TWTR, SQ, AMD, CREE, CY, TQQQ, SOXL, etc. over the past few months, but in addition to that, I have recently been very focused on the current set up in the Precious Metals Sector. For the public, I want to share what we have been doing with that here.

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We have been tracking Gold, Silver, and especially Miners with focus for the past couple of Months. I have been expecting a deep sell off into a Cycle Low that will lead into an excellent buying opportunity. Interestingly, even though I have expected a deep sell off into that ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low), I started recommending buying at least some Miners weeks ago, because something interesting was taking place. Unlike the prior bear market sell offs, where Miners crashed down as Gold sold off, I noticed several Miners appeared to very strong. They seemed to be under accumulation, despite Golds sell off.

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Take a look at KL for example. New 2018 highs occurred while Gold was selling off over the past few weeks. In fact, it has almost doubled in 2018.

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Did you notice GORO? I have been pointing this kind strength out for Months now, but many are still afraid of this sector. This sell off in Gold has fooled many into believing that "Gold is dropping and Miners are dangerous." I got emails to that affect, but charts do not lie and my daily reports have been sharing many bullish factors that go unnoticed at times.

     

So I've decided to show portions of my last 2 weekend reports combined together here for the Public to take advantage of.

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May 26th Weekend Report

 We have really been focusing on whats going on in the Precious Metals Sector lately, so with that in mind, I am releasing this weekends  Premium Weekend Report to the public, enjoy!

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SPX - We discussed the break out from the down trend / triangle as bullish 2 weeks ago, but we really need some upside to increase the big picture bullishness.  An ICL in Feb formed and I'd like to see new highs within this intermediate cycle. This is currently a bullish set up, as discussed in the weekday reports.

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Weekend of April 8th- Bottom Of The Ninth?

I AM RELEASING MY PREMIUM EDITION WEEKEND REPORT TO THE PUBLIC, IT IS MORE OF A BIG PICTURE VIEW OF THE MARKETS, ENJOY!

 In baseball, the simple call that this is " The Bottom of the Ninth' means that the game has entered the  second part of the ninth and final inning.  Unless there is another rally that extends the game, we reach The end of that game.  For the team worried about going home with losses, it is the beginning of the end, unless this final opportunity provides a winning rally ( or  at least extends the game into extra innings).

  Could the General Markets be nearing that time? I'm not necessarily talking about THE TOP, but maybe the end of this winning run and a consolidation period would follow?  Maybe, lets discuss this further.

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 In my last  'Weekend Report' we took a deeper look at the 'Big Picture', because we had additional views to examine at the end of March.  This gave us not only a weekly view , but also the end of the months Monthly view, and also a Quarterly view. I went over that report today and it did point out that behind the beauty, cracks appeared.  This week the cracks continued, and though I do not think that necessarily signals  The End of the Bull Markets season, We could be in the Bottom of the Ninth for this run.  Let's look at our Big Picture View...

 

SPX DAILY - This is our daily cycle count, with the most recent low of the SPX still at day 34, and it looks like we have a dcl when it closed over the 10sma.  Could that change? Unless buyers step in on Monday, I'd say that another 'shake out' dip below the 200sma is not out of the question into day 40 + and here is why I say that...

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January 16th – A GOLDEN BULL

 A large part of my weekend report was directed to The USD, Gold, Silver, & the Miners.  We caught the lows in December and have been investing in various Miners (& JNUG/NUGT) since even before Mid December.  In the daily reports I discuss various bullish set ups and buying opportunities, but each weekend  I often take a step back and give it a good ‘Big Picture View’.

I want to share some of this weekends report here. Things are playing out exactly as I have been thinking they would, and this is a good time to share some thoughts about it with you here.  Thanks for checking in, and enjoy…

 

 

USD

MY USD CHART FROM SEPTEMBER  –  If you have been with me for a while, then you know that a break down in the USD is exactly what I have been expecting around the end of 2017.  The USD broke below the 200 week MA and after a bounce I expected it to roll over. This would be a catalyst for the Gold Bull to continue running higher.

USD CURRENTLY – The USD did bounce, and then dropped below the ICL/YCL from early September on Friday. THAT is a Failed Intermediate Cycle and can lead to much lower prices over time. This is a weak USD, and that bodes well for Precious Metals.

USD DAILY  – about 2 weeks ago I drew the USD as having a dcl on day 24.  If this just rolled over with a day 5 peak & this is day 8, then we have a ways to go on the down side. It also MIGHT be an extended daily cycle and the dcl is not day 24, it would still be ahead.  Either way, the USD is showing weakness.

 

As December rolled around and GOLD & SILVER were selling off, I noted that several Miners looked rather bullish despite the selling.    Gold & Silver stocks looked to be ‘On Sale’,  and I posted charts of several bullish set ups in Miners.

GOLD DEC 7th – I was still being cautious in early December  before the FOMC MTG, but we were hunting for that next important ICL (low) to show up soon.

 

GDX DEC 15th Daily –  To give my readers a look at the risk / reward, I posted a few charts like this one below. Even if you were still ‘cautious’,  you could start small, use a stop,  and ‘add’ to position  as this proves itself. I mentioned that I bought JNUG after that FOMC meeting.

GOLD – So far the run left many behind that have been waiting to ‘buy the pull backs’. What pull backs?  Timing-wise, we are getting close to a seeing a ‘pull back’ into the next daily cycle low however. A normal dip in a bullish run.

GOLD – We are staying focused on the big picture, and this intermediate cycle has not peaked yet.

 Higher Cyclical lows ( ICLs) in Purple for 2017 are bullish. This 5 yr chart actually looks like a Giant base in recovery mode.

 

SILVER – Silver is on the verge of a major break out, and when silver & silver stocks run, they usually run QUICKLY.

 

SILVER – Look at 2003 when Silver got above the 200 weekly sma, buyers loved it. We seem to be at that point again.

Last week using this & other charts, I discussed buying a variety of Silver stocks,  because they popped on Jan 10th while Silver was down. Did you notice that when it happened?

 

GDX – I see this as a 1/2 cycle low and we did NOT sell as this dipped. Why not?

GDX CHART FROM JAN 8th – I had been pointing out ( red boxes) a possible ‘stall’ or ‘dip’ as a guide for my readers, comparing it to the one in August. We were expecting this recent choppiness.

GDX CURRENTLY –  This dip still looks similar to what we had in July, and you can see that the 2nd rush higher was better than the first.  We may not go straight up from here, that is just how bulls will try to kick you off.

JNUG – I have owned JNUG since the 13th of December. I also added when the ICL was confirmed.  I expect higher price over time regardless of these short term wiggles.

 

GDX – Even a smaller run similar to the Dec 2016 – Feb 2017  run would be a bit longer than what we’ve already seen in this run.

 

GDX WKLY  – OUR BIGGER PICTURE POSSIBILITY  –  Is that a multiyear inverse H&S?  This is NOT out of the question if we have a 6 month run like the 2016 run.

 

GG – GG went from weak and ugly in Decembers sell off , scaring buyers away.  Then it became very strong.  If you were ‘expecting’ the lows then too, you may hve caught this run.

CDE – Jan 2 was a buy for CDE under $8,  as it was breaking above the 50sma.

 

The BIG PICTURE FOR CDE – What if we get another run like the 2016 run?  This summer if CDE is at $22, we will all wish we bought it now at $7 or $8.

   I still have people telling me “Miners are in a bear market, it is too risky!  These could sell off at any time. “.   I understand that people have been burned by the miners at times,  but ‘timing’ is everything.  Cycles can help you to know when it is safer to enter & even exit. We have made Great gains at ICl’s and we caught the entire 2016 Run higher.

Not only that, but take a look at something that I also point out to my readers using various Miners charts.  We’ll use IAG for this example:

 

IAG WKLY – Is this stock still in a bear market sell off ?  I don’t think so at all.  IAG is back at the 2016 highs, and I see a bullish Cup & Handle pattern.

 

Conclusion for Miners:

  Some miners have had excellent runs higher, but they may be getting extended at this point. Some are due for a pullback, while others may be just getting going,  so I don’t just encourage jumping into just any ole  Miner right now.  I usually have lower risk set ups in the weekday reports as they present themselves, often after a small pull back.

 Also, using ‘cycle timing’ Gold will be coming due for a drop into a daily cycle low soon enough. Would you like a 2nd set of eyes to help you to navigate through the coming weeks or months ahead?  I will be covering this sector in the daily reports, so as things continue to unfold, you will be informed.  Why not sign up for a month or a quarter and make money with us here at Chartfreak? We also have a ‘comments’ section or chat section where many experienced traders share ideas.

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This portion of my weekend report is only a fraction of the weekend report that was posted in  the ‘Premium Members’ section.  That one actually consists of 45 charts this weekend, including individual Miners, SPX, OIL, NATGAS, and more!  It may be worth trying it out for at least a month, and see if my analysis combined with your own trading experience or views, can help you to become more profitable.   🙂

 

To sign up, click here

CLICK HERE

Thanks for checking us out!

 

~ALEX

 

 

Oil - But the Expected Dip

Oil – Buy the Expected Dip

OIL

 

OIL's C.O.T. - The shorts by 'Smart Money' increased again.  They are determined to ride a drop in Oil prices, though Oil has been bullish in recent weeks.

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The Mesmerizing Bitcoin/ Blockchain Trades

I have decided to release the Premium Dec 28th Premium Report &  a bonus Bitcoin report at the end,  to the public. Enjoy!

This is the regular market report, with an extended section on Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency at the end. The Bitcoin section will be released to the public later today too. For now, let''s review some of the areas of interest in Wednesdays markets.

 

SPX -  No change in expectations from yesterday.

 

You want to keep this in mind though...

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Is Bitcoin A Bubble Or Not? Blockchain Part 2

My last public post last week discussed Bitcoin & Blockchain trades.  They have been absolutely explosive, some trades running up 300-500% or even more.  On Monday (in my premium section) I then went over some of our current trades, and discussed the idea that Bitcoin could go parabolic and then crash down, so caution would be warranted.

 Does a parabolic move and crash mean the end of Bitcoin? No it doesn't, so before we get into a debate about whether or not BITCOIN is in a bubble, and whether a 'Bubble' phase means that this is the end of Bitcoin or not, please read on and then see how you feel.

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Nov 24th – The Blockchain Explosion!

NOTE: Please keep in mind that this report was written last week as a premium report, while Bitcoin was between $7000 & $8000.   Bitcoin almost hit 10,000 this weekend, and a follow up premium report was posted on Monday.  The following report gives you an idea of how we were viewing the blockchain charts. It also briefly discussed OIL, the XLE, Gold & Miners.

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While waiting patiently for the Gold market to set up properly, we have been trading other areas, and one of those areas recently has been the Blockchain trades. I mentioned that I had been trading these on the side, watching how they play out, seeing if they act as expected, before including them in the reports.  Well, they are quite volatile, but I was having success trading them, so I came to the conclusion that they were trade-able and that maybe I should put them in the reports with a small warning about risk last week. So we started trading Blockchain last week.

I'm not sure who decided to take these trades with me, and who watched from the sidelines, but I want to review some of these explosive moves (and gains) and point out a couple more set ups that may be ready to follow the leaders.

 

RIOT - This chart showed a consolidation that I had been trading with BIG SWINGS. After a series of lower lows, we see a higher low Nov 13 and it looked ready to break out, so I Used this chart as a buy and...

RIOT - This chart to show the bigger picture potential. I named a couple of upside targets that sounded kind of ridiculous, like $14 & $16, even in the $20's.

RIOT -  I sold 1/4 of my position at $16 & posted that in the comments section. Then it after hrs, it continued to ramp up and was at $18.35, so I placed a sell for 1/4 at $18.30 & it sold immediately.  I mentioned this in the comments too, so that others could follow if they wish.

 

GLNNFGLNNF, RIOT, and PRELF  were the main ones that I traded as an experiment. GLNNF has been very quick mover too, but they are also getting very exuberant and parabolic when they take off  ( Bit coin is breaking new highs too). I sold this one a bit early every time, but with solid double digit gains.  I mentioned this one near $1.20 I believe, and I sold it at $1.80  ( Red Arrow = early again) 🙂

So let's take a look at some other trade ideas in this sector...

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