Is Bitcoin A Bubble Or Not? Blockchain Part 2

My last public post last week discussed Bitcoin & Blockchain trades.  They have been absolutely explosive, some trades running up 300-500% or even more.  On Monday (in my premium section) I then went over some of our current trades, and discussed the idea that Bitcoin could go parabolic and then crash down, so caution would be warranted.

 Does a parabolic move and crash mean the end of Bitcoin? No it doesn't, so before we get into a debate about whether or not BITCOIN is in a bubble, and whether a 'Bubble' phase means that this is the end of Bitcoin or not, please read on and then see how you feel.

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Nov 24th – The Blockchain Explosion!

NOTE: Please keep in mind that this report was written last week as a premium report, while Bitcoin was between $7000 & $8000.   Bitcoin almost hit 10,000 this weekend, and a follow up premium report was posted on Monday.  The following report gives you an idea of how we were viewing the blockchain charts. It also briefly discussed OIL, the XLE, Gold & Miners.

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While waiting patiently for the Gold market to set up properly, we have been trading other areas, and one of those areas recently has been the Blockchain trades. I mentioned that I had been trading these on the side, watching how they play out, seeing if they act as expected, before including them in the reports.  Well, they are quite volatile, but I was having success trading them, so I came to the conclusion that they were trade-able and that maybe I should put them in the reports with a small warning about risk last week. So we started trading Blockchain last week.

I'm not sure who decided to take these trades with me, and who watched from the sidelines, but I want to review some of these explosive moves (and gains) and point out a couple more set ups that may be ready to follow the leaders.

 

RIOT - This chart showed a consolidation that I had been trading with BIG SWINGS. After a series of lower lows, we see a higher low Nov 13 and it looked ready to break out, so I Used this chart as a buy and...

RIOT - This chart to show the bigger picture potential. I named a couple of upside targets that sounded kind of ridiculous, like $14 & $16, even in the $20's.

RIOT -  I sold 1/4 of my position at $16 & posted that in the comments section. Then it after hrs, it continued to ramp up and was at $18.35, so I placed a sell for 1/4 at $18.30 & it sold immediately.  I mentioned this in the comments too, so that others could follow if they wish.

 

GLNNFGLNNF, RIOT, and PRELF  were the main ones that I traded as an experiment. GLNNF has been very quick mover too, but they are also getting very exuberant and parabolic when they take off  ( Bit coin is breaking new highs too). I sold this one a bit early every time, but with solid double digit gains.  I mentioned this one near $1.20 I believe, and I sold it at $1.80  ( Red Arrow = early again) 🙂

So let's take a look at some other trade ideas in this sector...

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Oct 23rd – THE BIGGER BIG PICTURE

I AM OPENING UP THE WEEKEND REPORT TO THE PUBLIC.  IT IS A LONG REPORT, SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO READ, BUT I HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT. IT IS A BIGGER BIG PICTURE VIEW.  ENJOY & THANKS FOR CHECKING IT OUT!

 

This weekends report is going to be a bit different.  I often give the Big Picture review, and with that, we have been discussing since last January the possibility of a Blow Off Top / Parabolic move resulting from the general markets' bullishness.   Well, this is going to be an even Bigger Picture discussion, with a number of different Markets discussed.  It is a long detailed report designed to answer many emails that I have received about the bigger big picture , so grab some coffee or tea and let's begin...

 

NASDAQ -  This chart was from last May.  I posted this idea of how the current rally that we were seeing could be becoming  parabolic. Parabolic moves seem like they will never end, and you'll hear that "Nothing can kill this market", and it feels so true. Then suddenly, they die a brilliant death as you can see in the year 2000. See the chart below, where we examined similarities of a final shake out consolidation, a ramp up with somewhat choppy trading that would still having higher lows, higher highs, and then the final Ramp higher...

NASDAQ - Here we are now and the choppiness with higher lows and higher highs seems to be playing out now, and a blow off top would follow. OR, is this the blow off top in play as it just continues higher?  This move is verticle and could lead to the blow off top.  Just ride it long. I have drawn in  a post blow off top scenario with a normal 'back test' of the break out. Let's dig in further...

NASDAQ - Currently, the 'choppiness', when examined close up, is normal.  I have advised buying with a reasonable trailing stop. Each dip to the 50sma can be bought as a low risk entry. Was that tiny dip the DCL, because we are so late into this current daily cycle?  I'll show you why that could be possible later using the RUT AND TRANNIES. If it isn't a dcl, and we get a dip to the 50sma (even with a shake out there), that would obviously be a 'buy'- please read the chart. THis is a healthy strong bull run.

Now let's also look at the BIGGER PICTURE  SPX, RUT, TRAN, DJIA

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Is It A Melt Up?

I wanted to open up a slightly shortened version of  this weekends report to the public. In the weekend report, I usually cover the action that we saw in all of the Sectors that we have been covering lately, and in the daily reports, these are updated and stock picks are also added, if the set ups present themselves.  So even though the premium members will have a lot of additional information as things upfold, the Public should be able to get a solid idea of what we have been looking for, and how it has all been playing out.    Enjoy this weekends report.

 

SPX-  I will repeat,  I never called the recent dip an ICL. It lacks the characteristics of one, but what I did say is that we have been overdue for one for a while. So we have a dcl, and similar to the last couple of dcls, the move higher has been a bit choppy, but we have higher lows and higher highs, so an uptrend continues.

SPX - In August I reminded readers that we were due for an ICL, but visually, I still do not clearly see one.

SPX - Then on Sept 1st, I posted this as a cautionary note for the future - a possible rising wedge and mentioned that OCTOBER can be tough for the markets, historically speaking. We have seen some pretty big crashes in October. Will we get the ICL then?  We'll have to be alert going forward to any signs of weakness as this unfolds. So some are long from the recent dcl, I am just helping my readers to see a reason to stay alert, and I will monitor it along the way.

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The Weekend Walk Through – Aug 27

Were you prepared for this action today?  At chartfreak, we have been selectively buying Miners and other commodity stocks for weeks, and discussing the bullishness in this sector, despite many articles expressing concern over it.

 

I'm opening up the weekend report, because we have been expecting this break out in Gold for weeks now. I have been posting various Miners chart set ups to show which ones were good low risk buys over the past few weeks, and my reports have been very focused on the bullish side of GOLD, SILVER , & The Miners.  In addition to that, We also have been buying and trading commodity stocks like HBM, IPI, TGB, X, FCX, etc over the summer, and pretty much avoiding the General Markets as they topped out and  consolidated for a bit. I was able to call THE lows in Oil in July, but the Energy sector using XLE & OIH was tricky, so I didn't enter a trade there.  Set ups kept breaking down and even though the XLE did break out in late July and looked promising, it lacked strength and follow through after that  break out  .  This was this weekends report is posted below in it's entirety, and follows up on all of those areas.   IF you think that all the prior daily reports directing you to the Commodity stocks and Miners may have helped you with your trading, why not sign up for a month and try it out now?  I will be closely watching this sector after todays break out.  Enjoy!

   

NASDAQ -We still haven't dropped into our ICL, but you can see that the NASDAQ has basically gone sideways all summer.  Price is where it was in May. Is this reversal ready to move price higher out of this consolidation?

 

Well, we are within the timing for a DCL on the daily charts, but look at that lower indicator on the above NASDAQ chart.  This sideways move has internal weakness, so the next daily cycle could roll over too, if you buy the reversal here, use a stop.

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Subconscious

I have decided to release a large part of my last weekend report to the public, so that you can see what we at Chartfreak have been looking at.   Enjoy.

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Have you ever heard someone say, "In the back of my mind, I was thinking about..." ? Well, in this weekend report I'm going to discuss my analysis ( technical / Cycles / etc)  and the conclusions that are drawn from that, but I also wanted to mention a few things that have subconsciously been  ' in the back of my mind ' in a few areas.

 

SPX - Friday I pointed out that we could bounce here, but I still expect a bit more of a drop after a bounce.

We did get the bounce at multiple support areas after filling a lower gap & 'buy the dip' has been working. Now we could fill the overhead gap.

 

These patterns do look similar with a continuing rally, and some may think that it would lead to further rally upside...

But ' in the back of my mind '...

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“Where Have You Been?”

I received a couple of emails recently from the public readers ( one was an old friend, Thanks Bob C. !) , either asking where have I been when it comes to my public posts, or asking me to review what I have been seeing lately. I've been very busy this spring with the premium reports and a private chat area that we have in there, plus other outdoor activities and responsibilities that I care for every spring, but as for a review? I  would be happy to do that. 🙂

 

The General Markets became choppy in March and I was expecting a drop into a daily cycle low. I estimated that the 50sma would be a good target.

For over a month things were choppy and difficult to trade really, until we got a directional break. The drop was not as sharp as I had imagined,  so some of the trades that I was taking were working out, but others lacked follow through, got choppy,  and stopped me out.  I admit that this was choppy and a difficult environment to trade in.

 

From April 25 - Currently we see a pattern of consolidation and then moves higher ( With pullbacks along the way).  We do have a FOMC MTG this week, and there is a chance that that may cause the markets to dip into a low

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PUBLIC REPORT – Breaking Out

In several of my last public reports, I presented the Precious Metals markets as bullish.  Have you been able to take advantage of that?  At Chartfreak, we have been confident and able to make great gains in this sector since the December lows.  I want to again share with the public some of our weekend report.  This weekend we  just kept it simple.  This is some of what we have discussed recently in the premium side of Chartfreak.

I am going to skip the general markets , Oil, Natgas, etc. and just go right to…

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GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

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THIS SECTOR REMAINS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH MY EXPECTATIONS FROM THE DECEMBER LOWS. I repeatedly cautioned against over trading or getting too cute and losing position.  If you are new here, please read my report on what it means to ‘Get too cute’ during a Bull run, click the link below to go there.

DON’T GET TOO CUTE

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I’m going to keep this really really simple this weekend.

 

GOLD DAILY – This is a bullish chart and suffered no damage after FED WEDNESDAY. The dip at the end of January has recovered and I have us on day 5.

 

GOLD WEEKLY – GOLD has now recovered the drop below Mays ICL.   I still see a Bullish big picture, the Weekly MACD is turning higher.

SILVER – SILVER dropped on Friday, but it tagged the 10sma and recovered. That drop to the Thicker RED ARROW  was also the 50sma. Silver is on the Bullish Track too.

GDX – Miners  MIGHT want to dip down a bit inside of this rising channel, but it remains an upward sloping bullish channel. GDX has danced around the rising 10 sma and remains bullish.

 

GDXJ – This finally got above the 200sma .  Let’s keep it simple, it remains bullish at this point.  See the weekly chart below, even a drop to  $37.50 would be great.

 

GDXJ WKLY –  I cannot tell you enough how bullish this set up can be.   Wait – Yes I can, It is VERY BULLISH from what I have seen in the past.  GDXJ has run from $27 ish to $40 ish and looks like it wants to go back to 2016 highs eventually.  That’s a BIG MOVE higher after that long drop at the end of 2016. Can this drop to $37.50, the lower trend line?  Yes, and it would still remain very bullish.

To keep it simple, this precious metals sector remained Bullishly aligned, even after the Fed Week Meeting. The daily reports will monitor the activity as it unfolds going forward.  Newer subscribers, if you have time, why not go back and read some of the recent report from the past couple of weeks to see what we have been discussing & anticipating.  Again, enjoy your weekend!

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~ALEX

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So that was excerpts from the weekend report. For this Pubic report, let me share just a few more charts of the Miners from the Tuesday report, to add confidence to the bullishness of this sector thus far.

GDXJ WKLY –  Do you remember the Bullish chart that I posted of GDXJ above? This is the same wkly chart after Mondays trading. I told my readers that this was a bullish set up and no we see why I said that.

We bought the lows in December and I have repeatedly discussed with my readers why they did NOT want to over trade these positions.  I repeatedly mentioned that in this bullish set up, the selling could be minimal and difficult to buy back at a lower price.   Now, after a January consolidation, we see that that has been the case.  Many Miners began breaking out over resistance areas on Monday too. Let’s take a look…

 

NG – This did not have a big pullback, it consolidated December gains and started breaking out mid day Monday.

NG  – BY the close it was a lot higher. We are glad that we were not scared out of our positions.

PVG – Breaking out midday Monday, hardly a pull back here  during January too.

 

PVG was up over 13% by the close!  Again, at Chartfreak I reminded investors repeatedly not to get nervous and sell, losing positions.  We are not over-trading our positions since buying the Dec lows.

GORO – Breaking out Midday on Monday.

GORO followed through into the close.

PAAS WKLY –  You cannot deny that PAAS is a champion. It has returned to the 2016 highs already and others are not too far behind. This is a real confidence builder, isn’t it?

So using  Cycle analyses, technical analyses, and other methods that I have developed over the years, we have been doing very well with out positions in the miners.  For my readers, the reports have built confidence in the sector and various set ups that present themselves over time.  I will continue to monitor the move going forward and then there will be a time that it will be advantageous to gather some profits.   We then will see if we are presented with another opportunity to buy the dip.  This will be covered in future reports.  If you think that this type of analyses would help you with your style of trading, why not give us a try with a 1 month or quarterly membership? We also have a ‘chat’ section below each daily report where experienced traders gather and discuss their trades.  With your experience and another set of eyes, these reports could very well pay for themselves. Thanks for being here in the Public Section too!

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~ALEX

 

Chart Freak Premium

Chart Freak members receive up to 5 premium reports per week covering a wide array of markets, as this public post illustrates.  Come and join the ChartFreak community as we trade the new Gold Bull Market and various trending sectors.

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What’s In Your Wallet?

What have the readers at Chartfreak been looking at as the best near term investment?  Since the lows were put in in December, we have been buying and focused on Miners.  I did expect a pause or pullback in January, but I also wrote a special report telling my readers "Not to get too cute"  and over trade this sector, because more upside was on the horizon.  On the blog, last week I wrote specifically about GDX, see post: https://chartfreak.com/2017/01/market-vectors-gold-miners-gdx/ I've decided to give you a portion of the member report sent before Fed Wednesday.  The report covered all of the markets, but the main focus has been on the Precious Metals sector. So the following is a part of Wednesday's precious metals section. Read More
Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) - Chart Freak

Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)

 

Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)

 

A REMINDER OF JAN 2016 -

  Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) - Chart Freak - ChartFreak Read More