Let me tell you a story about gold.

Gold has been on a run during this market correction.  There is more to the story and I’d like to show you.

 

Before we get started, lets look back at $GDX and $GDXJ how they closed out 2018…

THE MONTH OF DECEMBER HAS NOW CLOSED,  AND THERE IS NOTHING BEARISH ABOUT THIS MONTHLY CHART.  THIS IS A VERY BULLISH LOOKING CHART!  THIS LOOKS VERY BULLISH FOR 2019!

 

GDXJ MONTHLY –  December has ended and this is the first Positive Month since MAY!   I pointed out that down trend line last weekend,  and it has been broken!   Again, I see NOTHING BEARISH about this chart.  2019 Could be a very profitable year !

(The following is a sample of Alex’s work from the past week)

(1/9/19)

GOLD LIVE WEDNESDAY JAN 9th-  Gold has been dropping, but it is mild at this point.  I’d like to see more of a drop.

ALO –  In December I pointed this out as a lagger that Popped and was a buy. I pointed out that these bases can actually produce a nice run . 

ALOIt ran and is now Bull Flagging.   I then pointed out other stocks that resemble this set up, and mentioned that they could be bought as those ‘lagging stocks trying to play catch up’  ( Advice:  a small basket to avoid individual risk, and  you can also use a small position size).  

 

 

NGDHere we go,  JAN 3rd, a similar base as ALO  was pointed out here and looking ready to go.  It popped 10 % here and I was looking for a nice run to the 200 sma as possible over time.  

NGD –  Boom Boom Boom-  it is playing catch up, even on days when GDX & GDXJ were down.  So I see that as an indication that some of these will act on their own,  as buyers step in to accumulate. 

GORO DEC 31  – So I used this chart and said that it looks similar to ALO and NGD, but it needs a bit more sign of strength. I wouldn’t just buy a 1 day reversal, but…

GORO  – It started pushing on that 50sma, and Tuesday it POPPED above it. THAT IS A BUY.  GDX & GDXJ were down at the time,  they were pulling back, but GORO was being bought up.  This  is a buy, but I did notice the DEEP RED CRASH DAY every 3 months before the base (red arrow).  That MIGHT be earnings, so be aware of the earnings date. 

 

HL –  HL was a BUY on JAN 3 too.  It has lagged, and it was a Silver stock still at the very lows, MACD rising.  Low risk, with a stop at the lows.   $2.47

HL –   It started flagging sideways and Tuesday HL has a 10 % POP.  Again,  this happened while GOLD, GDX, and GDXJ were down.  SO IF CYCLES SAY GOLD & GDX Need  a pull back,  maybe some of these that didn’t join in on the run higher in December  (laggers or Base building) will still just do  their own thing in January?   

 

 

HL – It could easily run, crawl along the 50sma, and break out as shown here. 

 

(1/11/19)

GDX  – If we can get a drop,  it might only look like this,  but so far GDX got choppy again.   Believe it or not,  this is 3 weeks sideways. It is simply going sideways along the 200 sma now, and that can be a Bullish Crawl.  IF GOLD BREAKS OUT HIGHER, THIS CRAWL ALONG THE 200 SMA MAY BE THE ONLY PULL BACK THAT WE SEE ALSO. 

CDE  –  So some Miners do look like they could pull back for a buy opportunity.  CDE could tag that 50sma unless it just breaks this apex higher. 

 

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Some Winning Stocks You Might Have Missed

The overall market has been very choppy and that an be frustrating for a lot of traders. However, there were some real winning stocks this week. Did you catch them? Some of the highlights were $NBEV $TWTR $UBX

(Below is a sample of Alex’s work from throughout the week. )

(Below chart from 12/11)

NBEV  –  WHAT A RUN IN SEPTEMBER!    I bought NBEV  instead of  WTER and it moves fast.    It is pushing on the 50sma,  so lets take a look at WTER.

(Below chart from 12/14)

NBEV  – NBEV Reversed Thursday, and I think that it could drop to the $5 area,  if this is a back test of the 50sma.

 

(Below charts from 12/12)

TWTR  – The Stock Market (NASDAQ)  is back at the October lows,  but  TWTR  moved from $26 at the October lows to almost $36 in at October highs, and now it is still at $34 and looks ready to break out even higher.   And…

 

TWTR  – I stepped back and saw

1.  A large inverse H&S formed

2.  With price now above the 50sma,  and

3.  The 50sma is already curling upward.  This looks Bullish now.

(Below chart from 12/14)

TWTR  –   This remains a bullish set up.  I  personally would not use too  tight of a stop on a set up like this.  A stop under the 200sma should keep you in the trade and not have to worry about the wiggles.   This has rallied since the October lows and did NOT follow the markets back down to the lows, so it is a bullish set up.

 

(Below chart from 12/6)

I said that I bought UBX near the 50sma, and it continued higher.

 

(Below chart from 12/14)

UBX  –  This stock just will not stop  🙂     $12 to almost $17  since last week.   I liked this one for the volume coming out of that base too.

 

As a bonus: Keep an eye on Oil.

(Chart from 12/14)

WTIC  –  Oil seems to be basing after putting in  a low 9 days ago, and the MACD is rising. This looks pretty promising.

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Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

OIL UPDATE DEC 5th

Just a quick update of what we at Chartfreak were looking for with Oils recent plunge.

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OIL – Nov 20th, I was telling my readers that I would be watching for a break above the 8 ema, to make a safe entry at a swing low.  Each pause sideways was breaking down  ( Bear flags) .

 

NOV 23-  Each pause in the drop remained a bear flag, the 8 ema still capping any progress

 

 

WTIC  NOV 27th –  This is very oversold and also we were keeping a cycle count.  The daily cycle near 70 days was VERY extended, so again, we are watching for a break out above that 8 ema  ( or 10sma) .

 

 

WTIC NOV 29th,  we had a reversal or pause and it was late time-wise,  so we stayed on alert for a break out

 

 

I even did some research and looked back at another similar deep sell off  ( in the summer of  2015), and saw that it lasted 61 days ,  then after the break of the 8 ema,  it eventually bounced to the 50sma.  A good trade with leverage or options.

 

 

We finally had our break out, and this could be a signal to go long  (with a stop) .

 

DEC 5th  ( Today)  we have a swing low and a back test.

 

THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE WAITED FOR AS A SAFER ENTRY , WHERE WE CAN PLACE A STOP AND AVOID GUESSING

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SO  I also was monitoring the XLE with Oils sell off –  IT RESISTED OILS SELLING  TOWARD THE END.

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XLE NOV 29 – We saw a falling wedge and I would expect at least a run to back test the 50sma, but possibly more if this is a yearly cycle low in Oil.

 

 

XLE POPPED on Dec 3rd  and…

 

XLE #1 –   It dropped with the Tuesday Market sell off.  So far, we have a Back test of the 10sma & Higher?  Or…

 

XLE #2 –  Back test the wedge & Higher?   

 

Time will tell, but a stop can be placed under recent lows , and you may even choose to trade options or GUSH. 

 

So this is how we have been tracking OILS big sell off, and the possible opportunity that could come after a low forms.   We are also looking at Oil & Energy Stocks.  Will the market sell off drag them down?  I will update these developments in future premium reports.  We may have a major buying opportunity here,  time will tell 🙂

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Why not join us if you think that this kind of analysis would assist you with your trading style too. Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

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~ALEX

 

Let Me Show You Something about Gold (& the Miners)

 

LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING ABOUT GOLD

(Below is a sample of Alex’s work from the week. )

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1. GOLD  MONDAY – Above the 50sma, it looked hopeful and Bullish on Monday, even though this was the start of the 3rd daily cycle.

2. GOLD TUESDAY  –  This was Gold closing under the 50sma during Golds 3rd daily cycle.  This now  looked QUITE Bearish breaking down Tuesday, since volume increased on the sell off and the RSI & MACD crossed down.

 

3. GOLD WEDNESDAY  – After the close under the 50sma, Gold surged with the Fed Speech midday, putting in a strong reversal?  Yes,  this looks bullish, but it looked quite bearish just 1 day before.  Again, these choppy frustrating markets continue to give us a sideways ride.  What can be said about this reversal ? …

 

  GOLD  – Many strong reversals or surges higher still just turned into sideways moves, as shown here. This still may not amount to very much in the bigger picture.  A break above this down trend line would definitely add to the bullishness and would threaten a run to the green 200 sma line. Read the chart.

I don’t want to burst anyone’s hopes, but please just allow me to point something out with the G-20 Mtg ahead…

 

  GOLD  – Gold has had a very big move higher recently on November 1st, but it rolled over too, right?  My emails are asking me, “Did this change everything?”  We cannot know from one strong day, since we have had that in the past and nothing more became of it.   We still need to use stops and be cautious if you went or remained long.  These markets are choppy & devious.

 

 

SILVER  – Silver actually looks like a bullish base with a shake out, recovery, trend line break and back test. I honestly think that Silver looks bullish here, but this has gone absolutely no where for 3 months, it can continue to do that. ‘Base’.

1. GDX YESTERDAY   – This definitely looked Bearish as it broke and closed below the 50sma.

 

2.  GDX   – Now GDX looks to have reversed at the lows?  Yes, this now looks bullish again, and so it can be bought with a tight stop, but 1. G-20 is ahead and  2. this has really been a choppy frustrating set up. 3. Day 6 can still remain the peak & this could break down next week, we just can’t tell at this point.       For example: My stop was below the blue arrow DCL when I bought, but I moved it up under the 50 sma, and I got stopped out at the 50sma as a result.  I would have to re-buy & risk getting stopped out for another short gain or loss.  Choppy sideways action is difficult.

Note: Choppy sideways action seen above is difficult, but after building a base like this, a  break out & run higher would probably begin to trend in that direction and buying pull backs would be easier & rewarding.  Nobody wants to ‘miss the move’ out of the lows, but this sideways chop has been causing paper-cuts for weeks now.  You must decide what is the best trade set up for you to pursue, meanwhile some individual Miners do continue to act bullishly.  Lets discuss this sector a little bit further.

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GDXJ   – We are looking for follow through.  We have seen large up days, but there is no guarantee that we will see higher price continue. Looking at the large day higher on September 14, the next 2 days were red.

 

GDX  – The current set up is that GDX has a day 6 ‘peak’ and today is day 11.  If that peak does not get  taken out, this will be a left translated daily cycle.  If price beats day 6 Thursday or Friday,  it’ll be a peak on day 11 or 12 so far ( Still can be L.T.) And then we face G20.   Do you feel lucky, kid? Do ya?   It is a very tough call here, because we have seen large up days and large down days often.

 

 

MINER THOUGHTS

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Are you frustrated because you feel you may be missing a move in Miners with all of the false starts and shake outs? ABX , AEM, KL, and others have been shown as Miners that have been leaders, and they ran well?     Well,  SILVER STOCKS are still at the lows,  you haven’t missed a thing, because Silver often roars higher when it gets going, when the time is right for it.  🙂  Notice…

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AG   – This is actually a series of lower highs and lower lows, so several Silver Miners like AG are at their lows. IF A big run was going to start now with the FED SPEECH followed by the G20 Mtg,  this would be a shake out, but you’d still be getting bargain prices.

 

EXK   –  EXK hit new lows, but suddenly looks like a bullish wedge. So we are getting more Mixed signals.

 

HL  –  Inverse H&S with HL.   Hecla  is also still at THE LOWS, but the RSI is at 50%.  Silver stocks look like they want to move higher. Next weeks post G-20 results may be the answer.

 

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AU-  And then we have bullish leaders pushing higher. Amazing.  These are choppy frustrating markets. so…

All I can say is that this is possibly the most mixed I have ever seen the Miners.  We have seen Many Silver stocks breaking to new lows right now, and yet several other Miners have been running higher and remaining bullishly at highs, like ABX, AU, etc.    We have GOLD & GDX breaking down below the 50 sma one day, and then sharp reversals that are news driven and often short lived. The USD is due for a drop, which is usually good for Gold, but GOLD is in a 3rd daily cycle, that is often when it weakens.  Throw in a FED discussion that sounded a bit more dovish and a G-20 meeting that may see Trump enforce greater tariffs on China or come to a trade agreement that is favorable, and you have more volatility, whip saw possibilities, and uncertainty.   I think Fridays action will be important when deciding how much of anything you want to hold going into this weekend.

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Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

What? Huh, Oil? Who said something about Oil?

(Below is a sample of Alex’s works from the past week.) 

These past few weeks have been extremely frustrating for a lot of traders out there.  So many are getting chopped up and setups that look promising one day, fail the next.

There is something that many traders don’t want to hear, especially ones just starting out.  Sit on cash.  It isn’t sexy, it isn’t going to make you any gains but it is often the BEST advice.  Trading isn’t always about making money, but it is always about preserving your capital.  As great as it feels to make money, it is 100 times worse to lose your money.

One of the old cliches in trading is “don’t try to catch a falling knife.”  When a stock is falling, there is a temptation among some to try to guess the bottom.  Oftentimes, this leads to buying at a price only to continue to see it fall. There are some tactics you can use to nibble around the edges, but that is for another time.  Right now, we should focus on confirmation.

That leads to oil.

(From 11/14/18)

OIL ENTERED ‘FREE-FALL”, and a low should be close.

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WTIC – I expected that small support area to give Oil a bounce as support, because we were on day 60, but it sliced right through it.  We are over 60 days deep and this was the 12th straight day of selling.   The next solid support should be $54ish.  We are just about there.

 

WTIC – This chart shows how oversold it is approaching that support ( but they can extend, we need a reversal).

 

**  I thought that we could see an Oil reversal at the oil inventory report.  I was informed in the comments section  ( thanks ‘LittleTimeLeft’) that due to the Monday Holiday in the U.S. –   The Oil inventory report has moved to Thursday.   I looked it up, and that is correct.  So will we reverse before that report?   It is hard to say, so below are 2 ideas of what we could see as Oil seeks out a low around that report over the next 2 days…

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WTIC – We could ‘bounce’ Wednesday,  and then do a final slam ‘shake out’  Thursday at the inventory report,  and then rally higher.

 

WTIC – We could gap down Wednesday (  and even Wednesday & Thursday) and then take off higher. Oil is stretched though, so when a reversal low forms, I think it will eventually V-Bottom.

 

So we are looking at what I expected to be an ICL, and this has been a raging sell off, so it fits the description, but  I looked back and saw something that was pretty interesting.  This caught my eye…

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WTIC – After this monster sell off in 2015, the sharp V-Bottom rally was immediate,but then it slowly stalled, went sideways , and eventually rolled over into  another sell off,  bringing price much lower ( Bear market).  THIS WOULD BE DEFLATIONARY. Not good for Commodities,  so is Oil going higher after this ICL or will it stall?  If it stalls, I’d like to remember this chart.

I bought DWT (Short Oil) in October around $5 & sold if for a $1 gain.  It has since doubled.   I sold that way too early, so If we get another drop like 2015, I will recommend DWT buy & hold for a month.

 

(As a brief reminder, I have been noting that Oil was likely for a big sell off.  It was stronger than I had anticipated, but nonetheless, we wait for the bottom to form and could see a reversal in prices. Once price has confirmed the bottom, you can enter a position and set your stops at the lowest point.  Then move them to breakeven quickly.)

WTIC OCT 26 –  Due for an ICL, This chart showed Oils was expected to drop near $60 in the Big Picture.

UWT, USO, UCO are ‘long Oil’ plays.

 

(From Friday 11/16/18)

WTIC – Past reports discussed the Cycle count.  I looked back at OIL, and often it puts in small days at the lows, so  I added to my Long position, thinking that this time it will not be a bear flag.  See the chart. If we get to the 8 ema, I will sell a portion.

 

 

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

 

The MJ Stocks, Round 2?

(below is a sample of Alex’s work from the week.  The marijuana stocks were highly volatile in recent months and after the news of legalization in Canada, they saw a sharp sell off [‘sell the news.’] A reversal appears in order.  There are dozens of companies to cover in the MJ sector, including the MJ ETF but these are just a few.)

MJ STOCKS –

Note: I have repeatedly warned about the great risk / Reward of this sector.  It simply moves very fast and any bad surprise can take price down quickly.  That said, they do also move higher 10-50% per day.  please use caution & control risk with position size. 

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CVSI – I mentioned that even with the “Sell off’ in this sector,  CVSI held up around that 50sma, so I bought it.  This is a bullish chart pattern.

CVSI – It continues higher

 

 

TGODF – I also said that I bought this as it was rising, because it was a bullish engulfing at the lows with good potential.

TGODF – It was up 35% Monday.Several have been moving off the lows, and just ran staright to the 50sma and even broke out.

 

 

PLNHF– Tammie mentioned this stock, and I actually loved this chart pattern.

1. Steady on the 50smaI

2, A long sideways consolidation, not a sell off t was already up 10% when I bought it,  but you can see that it ran higher and sold off.

3.  Big Volume

but why would I buy it if it already ran from $1.6 to $2.30 in 3 days?   I bought it as it sold off to $2.30 knowing that it can be bought back by the days end.  This set up was very bullish, and …

 

 

PLNHF – And it closed up 24%.  I is at new all time highs, and that is bullish.  As a measured move  (and with that volume), it does have a target of $4.20 or more, so even though it was already up-  This One was buy-able.

 

NOTE:   THAT PLNHF  CHART ABOVE WAS SPECIFICALLY BULLISH OVERALL.  I WOULD NOT JUST BUY ANY STOCK UP THAT MUCH, YOU CAN GET CAUGHT IN A DOWNDRAFT.

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GTBIF – This is an example of what I see many MJ stocks doing now. At first glance, I would expect a ‘Bounce to the 50sma”, but as you see, many of these are breaking out again.   Can you see how this slowly ran higher in August to the 50sma,  and then ramped up?  I’m wondering if We may see the same  ( read the chart).  This tiny move is already $10 to $14!

 

 

KSHB –  KSHB crashed below the 50sma in the recent sell off, but suddenly, the sector got heated up again,   and it ran from $4.50 to $6.40 in 5 days.  That’s not all…

 

KSHB – I always like to look at the big picture of these, and you can see that KSHB is a bullish triangle, heading for all time new highs.   Let’s just say that you held “Buy & Hold’ from last Oct lows, that was $2 to $8.50, but what a bumpy/choppy ride these can be!   It is now at $6.25 and could break to all new highs soon though.

 

 

 

 

OGRMF – Another long term bullish chart,  but VERY difficult to ‘buy & hold’.  It has now bounced off of the 50 week moving average after a steep 2 week crash.

 

OGRMF – This was the crash on a daily chart and it is just now starting to move higher, up 9% yesterday. Please read the chart, it is difficult to tell if this will meander higher or surge higher.

 

CGC –  Read this chart:   This is a tough call, and I mentioned it last week.  I can’t tell if it is ready for a massive run again, like in August?  Maybe it is.  Or will it meander, and if so, why?  I say this because there may be a lot of  Buyers in September that may now be stuck after that sell off, so they become sellers stuck in this stock just ready to bail out on a rise higher.  It is a buy near this support level though.

So I posted this and wrote this chart about CGC last week, thinking that maybe sellers could be caught in this stock ready to bail out.  I could also be wrong,  they may just add to position and ride it higher.

I have a list of maybe 60-80 MJ Stocks, and that is too many to mention here, So check your list of MJ STOCKS and see if they may be rising from a support level with increasing volume.  You may have a nice trade developing if you do.

 

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

OCT 23rd – Public Market Review

I am opening up today's report to the public.  Enjoy.

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Nothing has really changed since the weekend report. The markets have been choppy and difficult to record any gains over the past few days, but I do love the way the Precious Metals sector acted yesterday, so let's  take another  look at what we have.

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SPX - You can see that these types of sell offs into an ICL can lead to a double bottom, and Monday our General markets sold off further.

 

DJIA -  You may want to look for something like this

 

HOWEVER....

Read More

Top Notch Tops – Strategy Tips

(The images below are a sample of Alex work and are to provide a little education on understanding tops in a market or asset) Like most things in technical analysis, spotting a top is as much art as it is science. When you see a top, it doesn't mean it is time to run for the hills, take all your positions off the table, hyper leverage shorting the market or throwing computers out of windows.  NOPE!  It just means you need to be extra cautious with your trades, you probably should take some profits, de-risk most of your positions, tighten stops and don't take on long positions on a large time frame. Here are some clues that the market was likely to experience the sharp sell-off we experienced last week. (From 10/13/18)

SPX WEEKLY - I've been looking for a drop into an ICL , similar to January.  There it is, read the chart, and there is more..

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The Warning Signs Were There

(Below is a snippet of Alex’s work from the last week and the major US Indexes)

We all saw the major decline in the US Indexes and equities on October 10th. Were you prepared or caught off guard?

From Thursday October 4th:

NASDAQ –  Each morning I wake up and Futures are a lot higher, giving the idea of another bullish open, but The NASDAQ remains choppy really. All of September to now was sideways chop.

 

SPX –  The SPX is pushing along the upper B.B. Band and is also sideways and choppy lately.  The MACD is dropping.


And…
From October 10th (before the market opened)

JUST A HEADS UP : NASDAQ – I did mention the need for a stop after going long though, in case it is just a back test, rolls over  and something uglier develops like a deeper ICL.

So now what do you do? Remain calm, let the dust settle and wait for optimal entries.  Have you taken a look at precious metals or commodities?   https://chartfreak.com/2018/10/a-golden-bull/

Please consider a membership and you’ll find more great charts and opportunities to trade.

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

A Golden Bull?

Below is a snippet of Alex’s work from the past few days and his coverage of Gold.

 

(From Saturday)

2 BULLISH SIGNS IN GOLD LAST WEEK

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1. The USD was higher, GOLD, SILVER  & MINERS were not phased by it.

2. Remember that last week was known as the Chinese Golden Week, a week long holiday in China where Gold has sold off sharply ( $40 – $60) over the past few years.

Well, GOLD closed Higher this Golden Week, with the USD rising.

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GOLD  WEEKLY  –  That is a nice weekly reversal higher , despite the head winds mentioned above.

 

GOLD  WEEKLY  – We could see buying next week that pushes Gold above its down trend line.  Last week I mentioned that on Chinese Golden Week, the losses of $40 – $60 were often regained in 2 days the following week, when the holiday ended.  The GOLDEN WEEK holiday  has now ended with no loss.

 

GOLD DAILY LAST WEEK

SILVER  WEEKLY  – Silver still holds above the shake out

 

GDX  WEEKLY  – Miners held above their shake out

 

 

(MEANWHILE ON MONDAY…)

 

What was surprising about Monday?  It was this- Gold dropped over $17 and the Miners fought their way back to green…

 

GDX:GLD –  I discussed the bullishness when Miners lead Gold,  so this is how Golds drop & Miners POP affected the GDX:GLD ratio. Bullish.

 

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.