What? Huh, Oil? Who said something about Oil?

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(Below is a sample of Alex’s works from the past week.) 

These past few weeks have been extremely frustrating for a lot of traders out there.  So many are getting chopped up and setups that look promising one day, fail the next.

There is something that many traders don’t want to hear, especially ones just starting out.  Sit on cash.  It isn’t sexy, it isn’t going to make you any gains but it is often the BEST advice.  Trading isn’t always about making money, but it is always about preserving your capital.  As great as it feels to make money, it is 100 times worse to lose your money.

One of the old cliches in trading is “don’t try to catch a falling knife.”  When a stock is falling, there is a temptation among some to try to guess the bottom.  Oftentimes, this leads to buying at a price only to continue to see it fall. There are some tactics you can use to nibble around the edges, but that is for another time.  Right now, we should focus on confirmation.

That leads to oil.

(From 11/14/18)

OIL ENTERED ‘FREE-FALL”, and a low should be close.

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WTIC – I expected that small support area to give Oil a bounce as support, because we were on day 60, but it sliced right through it.  We are over 60 days deep and this was the 12th straight day of selling.   The next solid support should be $54ish.  We are just about there.

 

WTIC – This chart shows how oversold it is approaching that support ( but they can extend, we need a reversal).

 

**  I thought that we could see an Oil reversal at the oil inventory report.  I was informed in the comments section  ( thanks ‘LittleTimeLeft’) that due to the Monday Holiday in the U.S. –   The Oil inventory report has moved to Thursday.   I looked it up, and that is correct.  So will we reverse before that report?   It is hard to say, so below are 2 ideas of what we could see as Oil seeks out a low around that report over the next 2 days…

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WTIC – We could ‘bounce’ Wednesday,  and then do a final slam ‘shake out’  Thursday at the inventory report,  and then rally higher.

 

WTIC – We could gap down Wednesday (  and even Wednesday & Thursday) and then take off higher. Oil is stretched though, so when a reversal low forms, I think it will eventually V-Bottom.

 

So we are looking at what I expected to be an ICL, and this has been a raging sell off, so it fits the description, but  I looked back and saw something that was pretty interesting.  This caught my eye…

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WTIC – After this monster sell off in 2015, the sharp V-Bottom rally was immediate,but then it slowly stalled, went sideways , and eventually rolled over into  another sell off,  bringing price much lower ( Bear market).  THIS WOULD BE DEFLATIONARY. Not good for Commodities,  so is Oil going higher after this ICL or will it stall?  If it stalls, I’d like to remember this chart.

I bought DWT (Short Oil) in October around $5 & sold if for a $1 gain.  It has since doubled.   I sold that way too early, so If we get another drop like 2015, I will recommend DWT buy & hold for a month.

 

(As a brief reminder, I have been noting that Oil was likely for a big sell off.  It was stronger than I had anticipated, but nonetheless, we wait for the bottom to form and could see a reversal in prices. Once price has confirmed the bottom, you can enter a position and set your stops at the lowest point.  Then move them to breakeven quickly.)

WTIC OCT 26 –  Due for an ICL, This chart showed Oils was expected to drop near $60 in the Big Picture.

UWT, USO, UCO are ‘long Oil’ plays.

 

(From Friday 11/16/18)

WTIC – Past reports discussed the Cycle count.  I looked back at OIL, and often it puts in small days at the lows, so  I added to my Long position, thinking that this time it will not be a bear flag.  See the chart. If we get to the 8 ema, I will sell a portion.

 

 

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

 

The MJ Stocks, Round 2?

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(below is a sample of Alex’s work from the week.  The marijuana stocks were highly volatile in recent months and after the news of legalization in Canada, they saw a sharp sell off [‘sell the news.’] A reversal appears in order.  There are dozens of companies to cover in the MJ sector, including the MJ ETF but these are just a few.)

MJ STOCKS –

Note: I have repeatedly warned about the great risk / Reward of this sector.  It simply moves very fast and any bad surprise can take price down quickly.  That said, they do also move higher 10-50% per day.  please use caution & control risk with position size. 

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CVSI – I mentioned that even with the “Sell off’ in this sector,  CVSI held up around that 50sma, so I bought it.  This is a bullish chart pattern.

CVSI – It continues higher

 

 

TGODF – I also said that I bought this as it was rising, because it was a bullish engulfing at the lows with good potential.

TGODF – It was up 35% Monday.Several have been moving off the lows, and just ran staright to the 50sma and even broke out.

 

 

PLNHF– Tammie mentioned this stock, and I actually loved this chart pattern.

1. Steady on the 50smaI

2, A long sideways consolidation, not a sell off t was already up 10% when I bought it,  but you can see that it ran higher and sold off.

3.  Big Volume

but why would I buy it if it already ran from $1.6 to $2.30 in 3 days?   I bought it as it sold off to $2.30 knowing that it can be bought back by the days end.  This set up was very bullish, and …

 

 

PLNHF – And it closed up 24%.  I is at new all time highs, and that is bullish.  As a measured move  (and with that volume), it does have a target of $4.20 or more, so even though it was already up-  This One was buy-able.

 

NOTE:   THAT PLNHF  CHART ABOVE WAS SPECIFICALLY BULLISH OVERALL.  I WOULD NOT JUST BUY ANY STOCK UP THAT MUCH, YOU CAN GET CAUGHT IN A DOWNDRAFT.

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GTBIF – This is an example of what I see many MJ stocks doing now. At first glance, I would expect a ‘Bounce to the 50sma”, but as you see, many of these are breaking out again.   Can you see how this slowly ran higher in August to the 50sma,  and then ramped up?  I’m wondering if We may see the same  ( read the chart).  This tiny move is already $10 to $14!

 

 

KSHB –  KSHB crashed below the 50sma in the recent sell off, but suddenly, the sector got heated up again,   and it ran from $4.50 to $6.40 in 5 days.  That’s not all…

 

KSHB – I always like to look at the big picture of these, and you can see that KSHB is a bullish triangle, heading for all time new highs.   Let’s just say that you held “Buy & Hold’ from last Oct lows, that was $2 to $8.50, but what a bumpy/choppy ride these can be!   It is now at $6.25 and could break to all new highs soon though.

 

 

 

 

OGRMF – Another long term bullish chart,  but VERY difficult to ‘buy & hold’.  It has now bounced off of the 50 week moving average after a steep 2 week crash.

 

OGRMF – This was the crash on a daily chart and it is just now starting to move higher, up 9% yesterday. Please read the chart, it is difficult to tell if this will meander higher or surge higher.

 

CGC –  Read this chart:   This is a tough call, and I mentioned it last week.  I can’t tell if it is ready for a massive run again, like in August?  Maybe it is.  Or will it meander, and if so, why?  I say this because there may be a lot of  Buyers in September that may now be stuck after that sell off, so they become sellers stuck in this stock just ready to bail out on a rise higher.  It is a buy near this support level though.

So I posted this and wrote this chart about CGC last week, thinking that maybe sellers could be caught in this stock ready to bail out.  I could also be wrong,  they may just add to position and ride it higher.

I have a list of maybe 60-80 MJ Stocks, and that is too many to mention here, So check your list of MJ STOCKS and see if they may be rising from a support level with increasing volume.  You may have a nice trade developing if you do.

 

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

OCT 23rd – Public Market Review

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I am opening up today's report to the public.  Enjoy.

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Nothing has really changed since the weekend report. The markets have been choppy and difficult to record any gains over the past few days, but I do love the way the Precious Metals sector acted yesterday, so let's  take another  look at what we have.

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SPX - You can see that these types of sell offs into an ICL can lead to a double bottom, and Monday our General markets sold off further.

 

DJIA -  You may want to look for something like this

 

HOWEVER....

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Top Notch Tops – Strategy Tips

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(The images below are a sample of Alex work and are to provide a little education on understanding tops in a market or asset) Like most things in technical analysis, spotting a top is as much art as it is science. When you see a top, it doesn't mean it is time to run for the hills, take all your positions off the table, hyper leverage shorting the market or throwing computers out of windows.  NOPE!  It just means you need to be extra cautious with your trades, you probably should take some profits, de-risk most of your positions, tighten stops and don't take on long positions on a large time frame. Here are some clues that the market was likely to experience the sharp sell-off we experienced last week. (From 10/13/18)

SPX WEEKLY - I've been looking for a drop into an ICL , similar to January.  There it is, read the chart, and there is more..

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The Warning Signs Were There

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(Below is a snippet of Alex’s work from the last week and the major US Indexes)

We all saw the major decline in the US Indexes and equities on October 10th. Were you prepared or caught off guard?

From Thursday October 4th:

NASDAQ –  Each morning I wake up and Futures are a lot higher, giving the idea of another bullish open, but The NASDAQ remains choppy really. All of September to now was sideways chop.

 

SPX –  The SPX is pushing along the upper B.B. Band and is also sideways and choppy lately.  The MACD is dropping.


And…
From October 10th (before the market opened)

JUST A HEADS UP : NASDAQ – I did mention the need for a stop after going long though, in case it is just a back test, rolls over  and something uglier develops like a deeper ICL.

So now what do you do? Remain calm, let the dust settle and wait for optimal entries.  Have you taken a look at precious metals or commodities?   https://chartfreak.com/2018/10/a-golden-bull/

Please consider a membership and you’ll find more great charts and opportunities to trade.

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

A Golden Bull?

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Below is a snippet of Alex’s work from the past few days and his coverage of Gold.

 

(From Saturday)

2 BULLISH SIGNS IN GOLD LAST WEEK

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1. The USD was higher, GOLD, SILVER  & MINERS were not phased by it.

2. Remember that last week was known as the Chinese Golden Week, a week long holiday in China where Gold has sold off sharply ( $40 – $60) over the past few years.

Well, GOLD closed Higher this Golden Week, with the USD rising.

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GOLD  WEEKLY  –  That is a nice weekly reversal higher , despite the head winds mentioned above.

 

GOLD  WEEKLY  – We could see buying next week that pushes Gold above its down trend line.  Last week I mentioned that on Chinese Golden Week, the losses of $40 – $60 were often regained in 2 days the following week, when the holiday ended.  The GOLDEN WEEK holiday  has now ended with no loss.

 

GOLD DAILY LAST WEEK

SILVER  WEEKLY  – Silver still holds above the shake out

 

GDX  WEEKLY  – Miners held above their shake out

 

 

(MEANWHILE ON MONDAY…)

 

What was surprising about Monday?  It was this- Gold dropped over $17 and the Miners fought their way back to green…

 

GDX:GLD –  I discussed the bullishness when Miners lead Gold,  so this is how Golds drop & Miners POP affected the GDX:GLD ratio. Bullish.

 

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

Golden Surprise

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I want to open up part of my weekend report discussing GOLD, SILVER, and THE MINERS.  I have been saying that using Cycle Timing ( among other things) , we are due for an UPSIDE SURPRISE.   Let me get right into the discussion that I had with my premium readers this past weekend…

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USD DAILY  – This was July 15 and if you read the chart,  I thought that the USD could bounce once more, but then drop.  Why? LOOK AT THAT MACD WEAKNESS, and overhead resistance.

 

 

USD DAILY JULY 19  – So we got the bounce and the USD was rejected at resistance. A bear wedge was also now being pointed out by me. A drop in the USD is good for GOLD…

 

USD DAILY NOW – Friday showed that day 8 was likely the top, The USD Dropped below the 10sma. I see a swing high and this is overbought. The USD selling off should help Precious Metals…

 

USD WEEKLY – Rejected again and again at the double resistance on a weekly, it looks like the USD is ready to finally drop ( and  GOLD should rally).  What?  The Long awaited ICL in Gold?  I think so.  Let’s discuss Precious Metals now that we’ve seen the US Dollar situation…

 

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

GOLD KEEPS DROPPING, BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE MANY TIMES.  I really have.  Often people keep trying to buy the dips & remain very bullish when an ICL is due, but they must keep getting stopped out until fear prevents them from believing that GOLD is still a good buy.  This is the very kind of selling that is designed to “Flush out the weak hands” and to “Change the bullish Sentiment by emotionally scaring people away” while bigger players can enter.

You will read many  reasons why ‘Precious Metals are toast’,  ‘Gold is an Old relic with no value’, etc. etc. at an ICL. Ignore the crowd mentality, an ICL will form and Gold is going to rally.

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COT – The COT , as of last Tuesday, was  slightly better than last Julys ICL, and better than Decembers 2017 too. Gold dropped a bit more last week, so it probably even got better.

 

 

GOLD DAILY  – Gold put in a reversal on Friday.   Look at the steep drop of the last 3-4 weeks, but my propitiatory indicators are not dropping.  That is BULLISH, we should be at or close to the lows.

 

CLOSE UP GOLD DAILY – FRIDAY REVERSAL – Here is the reversal Friday.

1. The lows of Thursday were not taken out, and the highs were, that is a swing low.

2. If Gold moves higher, we get further confirmation

3. Remember that the USD looks set to drop on a daily & weekly

4. We are LATE in our cycle timing

 

GOLD WEEKLY  – A very Nice Reversal Candle on the weekly chart.  I am using Green Arrows to show that once the lows are in, you get ‘weeks’ of upside as it sling shots out of the lows.  That would make my day thumbs up emoticon

 

SILVER WEEKLY  – Reversal Candle on Silvers weekly chart too.

 

GDX WEEKLY – Miners started to sell off, but nothing like Gold.  THAT is a big deal. We could see Miners do a quick FLUSH below the lower trend line, but so far Miners have been resisting Golds sell off.

 

GDXJ – GDXJ Is on support at this point.

 

And then you have the Miners,  which I have tried to put on display here to show how they are being accumulated despite the Metals selling off.   I have pointed out strong Miners racing higher as Gold sells off, like KL, GORO, RGLD, etc.

 

GORO-– Would you know by looking at this miner that Gold has been selling off?

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Now lets take 1 more quick look, I am now going to show you some of the  Miners that may still  be near or at their lows, because they could quickly play catch up with a GOLD ICL.  Then our weekend wrap up is finished.

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TRX –  When I say  Jim Sinclair, what do you think of?  Yes, Gold.  🙂  I have owned  Tanzanian Royalty in 2018. As Gold sold off to new 1 yr lows, this is actually trending higher. That was a solid reversal at support on Thursday July 19. Also the rally from March lows to May highs was roughly a 100% gainer for the alert trader. I sold that rally to lock in gains, but re-entered recently.

 

DRD WEEKLY – I mentioned that I bought DRD a couple of days ago, and now I see the weekly chart as a break out & back test. It was up 6% last week.

 

MUX WEEKLY – The weekly chart of MUX does not look like “Gold has been selling off and will not stop” like you read in ‘popular’ bearish reports.    It has been slowly rising for weeks and Popped this week 10%.  The Weekly RSI is over 60. This is not bearish action at the lows,  it is bullish, even  though GOLD is at 1 year lows.

 

EGO WEEKLY  –   I see EGO as a large inverse H&S too, and it closed above the 10ma on a weekly chart. If the RSI on a weekly basis is about to cross the 50% as Gold sells off to 1 yr lows,  that is also Bullish action, not bearish.

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I AM BULLISH.   MANY MINERS ARE SETTING UP NICELY.    Our Current set up in Gold looks Bullish too.  We are due for an ICL in Gold & we have a reversal late in our daily cycle as of Thursday.  On top  of that, the USD is set to drop into an DCL, and it is even coming due for an ICL over time.

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The sling shot has been stretched back over the past few weeks,  I’d love to see Gold start to Make Our Day this week!  We will watch for some upside follow through to ‘confirm’ whether or not  GOLDS LOWS are in place.   It does look very good, with Miners leading the way and the USD topping.    party blower smiley

 

~ALEX

 

SIDENOTE:  Recap & Review of 2 other sectors.

 

AKS – Last week I mentioned that I liked other metals too.  I used this chart of AKS, and mentioned to see  X, CLF, CLD.

 

CLF  –  CLF had some pretty sweet follow through Friday, so the other Metals may still have some too.

 

And the URANIUMS were pointed out weeks ago as having bullish set ups. This was UUUU breaking out in June…

UUUU – 3 weeks ago,  UUUU was up 25%, and then consolidated.  Others did this also.

 

UUUU – After consolidating, and quite frankly, looking a bit ugly Wednesday on that POP & DROP, it put in a reversal candle Thursday and popped 13,50% Friday. This is a bullish set up.

 

 

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

A Matter Of Perception

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 I want to post something here that I pointed out to my subscribers last week.  This is a great lesson on a day when Gold & Silver are selling down again.

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 Every now and then I do a little ‘lesson’ to keep us balanced.   This one has to do with the difference between ‘trading’ & ‘buy and hold’ for weeks or months.  The problem with Buy & Hold for some is that the daily wiggles can be uncomfortable to them.  No one wants to see a down day give back some of our recent gains, but it happens in buy & hold.   What can give us proper perspective?

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Staying focused on the bigger picture.  It is all about Perception.   I am both a trader short term and a longer buy & hold under the right bullish conditions, so let’s take a look at perceptions.  Enjoy!

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CDE #1– CDE has had many small runs in 2018, like a trading range between the green arrow to red arrow.  I would say that people that own it using ‘buy & hold’ may even be a bit sick of this action.  What you want to do is step back and get a bigger picture view of the situation.  As noted in prior reports, CDE did excellent in 2016. Let’s step back…

 

CDE #2 – So stepping back, we see a ‘Base’ is forming and a break out & run could tack on some nice gains rather quickly  (Silver stocks do run quickly once they get going). This could quickly run to $9, however…

 

CDE #3– By really taking a step back and looking at what we are dealing with, we see what I would say is a massive bullish pattern forming.  Look how CDE ran in 2016,  from under $2 to $16!   This year of 2018 has been the bottom right hand side of what looks like a massive base that could form a multi-year’cup’ on a run higher.  CDE from $8 back to $16 would be 100% for the buy & hold investor, and then a break out could send it even higher, if these rally like they did in 2016.

 

 

LAST WEEK, CDE WAS TRADING AT $7.20 AND STARTED MOVING HIGHER AGAIN.  WHAT HAS CDE DONE SINCE I PUT THIS IN THE  REPORT?  SILVER HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN MONDAY & TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS IS THE CURRENT CHART OF CDE

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CDE WEDNESDAY 7-11 –   $8.45.  CDE continues Higher, even with Silver dropping this week.  The BIG PICTURE VIEW would help one to avoid selling the ‘wiggles’, as long as the Precious Metals sector remains bullish  (and my analysis shows that it is).

 

When I was pointing that out in AG as a ‘BUY’ in April, it looked similar to CDE now.  A long descending wedge type of pattern had formed there too. This was my big Picture chart of AG for April 13.  I mentioned that buying AG under $6 would probably look like a gift in the future.

 

AG –  Ag now trades near $8.  Since the Feb lows, AG has begun to put in a steady run higher, breaking above the down trending channel.  It has done this WHILE SILVER SOLD OFF TOO.  Imagine when Gold & Silver run higher out of an ICL?  CDE, AG, and other Miners should all  do very well.

 

If Conditions remain bullish in this sector, whether it is inflation creeping in or the USD dropping into its 15 yr cycle low over then next few years, these Miners can become big winners in your portfolio.      Some already are, and I have pointed out the leaders like KL, GORO, and so on in my reports.  THEY ARE TRENDING HIGHER AS GOLD SELLS OFF TO NEW LOWS.

Try not to completely miss the train as it leaves the station by at least owning some Miners.  I have been recommending them for a while now, and I will continue to  cover individual miners as they set up to break out & move higher too.

Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

~ALEX

 

Don’t Get Left Behind

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The Theme picture here speaks a thousand words. At Chartfreak, we've covered plenty of bullish set ups in the General Markets like TWTR, SQ, AMD, CREE, CY, TQQQ, SOXL, etc. over the past few months, but in addition to that, I have recently been very focused on the current set up in the Precious Metals Sector. For the public, I want to share what we have been doing with that here.

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We have been tracking Gold, Silver, and especially Miners with focus for the past couple of Months. I have been expecting a deep sell off into a Cycle Low that will lead into an excellent buying opportunity. Interestingly, even though I have expected a deep sell off into that ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low), I started recommending buying at least some Miners weeks ago, because something interesting was taking place. Unlike the prior bear market sell offs, where Miners crashed down as Gold sold off, I noticed several Miners appeared to very strong. They seemed to be under accumulation, despite Golds sell off.

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Take a look at KL for example. New 2018 highs occurred while Gold was selling off over the past few weeks. In fact, it has almost doubled in 2018.

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Did you notice GORO? I have been pointing this kind strength out for Months now, but many are still afraid of this sector. This sell off in Gold has fooled many into believing that "Gold is dropping and Miners are dangerous." I got emails to that affect, but charts do not lie and my daily reports have been sharing many bullish factors that go unnoticed at times.

     

So I've decided to show portions of my last 2 weekend reports combined together here for the Public to take advantage of.

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May 26th Weekend Report

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 We have really been focusing on whats going on in the Precious Metals Sector lately, so with that in mind, I am releasing this weekends  Premium Weekend Report to the public, enjoy!

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SPX - We discussed the break out from the down trend / triangle as bullish 2 weeks ago, but we really need some upside to increase the big picture bullishness.  An ICL in Feb formed and I'd like to see new highs within this intermediate cycle. This is currently a bullish set up, as discussed in the weekday reports.

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