Archive for category: Public

I have decided to post the weekend report to the public section of the website. Here at Chartfreak we have been mainly long Miners for several weeks weeks and shorting the bounces in the General Markets using SQQQ and SOXS. Using cycle timing, I have been expecting a pullback in the Precious Metals sector for the week of the Fed, so this is the weekend report leading us into that Fed Mtg on Wednesday March 16th. Enjoy!

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SPX DAILY – Friday was day 33 and after a gap open higher, price was rejected at the 10sma and sold off and closed near the day 33 lows. I have been expecting the day 22 lows to be broken and that should happen next week. These daily cycles can last for more than 40 days. Next week is a Fed Week.

SPX WEEKLY – We have seen a very strong bull market, but at this time we expected this market to break down and now we see the strong support of the weekly charts has been broken and price sold off below it. The General markets are dropping down into an ICL over time.

The General Markets had failed daily cycles , as pointed out in past reports, so they are dropping lower over time until they find their ICL. Is the next swing low going to be just a DCL or will it also be the next ICL? We’ll know only after it forms. For now I  expect a market drop into the next Daily Cycle Low.

LAST WEEK I USED THE FOLLOWING 3 CHARTS AFTER MARCH 9 TO EXPLAIN OILS SET UP:

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WTIC DAILY – Oil had an usually Sharp 1 day drop on March 9th and that MIGHT be putting in place a day 10 top for this daily cycle. If so this would become a left translated daily cycle.

WTIC DAILY – So we will be watching Oils path from here to see if a bounce can make new highs or to see if this is possibly topping with a lower high. Previously I had been looking at a $140+ Price target before that sudden surge and drop, but this might mean that the top is in for now. Price dropped from $130+ to $103 in 2 days.

WTIC DAILY -I pointed out the speed and straight up move as a possible parabolic blow off top. If day 10 is not exceeded, this is indicating that Oil has exhausted the move, but we’ll need time to see how this plays out. You can be long Oil with a stop, since it is still early in Oils daily cycle, but it may get choppy.

WTIC WEEKLY – 2 trading days later we got a large weekly doji (Indecision), but that was really expected, since it is only day 14 and Oil can trade for 40+ days. We just have to see what happens over the next few weeks ( and I think that more volatility can be expected with the war going on).  Passing time may reveal that this is a false break out.

XOP WEEKLY – The XOP also broke out, but Oil stocks did not get as extended as Oil and even if Oil just chops around in the $100-$130 area, Oil stocks may still rise.

USD WEEKLY – The only thing that I want to point out here is that what I had been saying for a year is playing out. I was pointing out that in 2018-2020, The USD & GOLD both ran higher together, so I said that if it happened then, it can happen again. It has been happening again. With this run in the USD late 2021-now, Gold ran from the lows of that large Cups ‘handle’, back up to the highs.

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In the past I have shown this topping candle – ‘The Shooting Star‘.

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GOLD WEEKLY – I hate to see what is usually a “topping Candle”. These usually do come at the top of a run as an exhaustion of buying & profit taking, but let’s discuss this just a little more.

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GOLD WEEKLY – I have seen in the past when these shooting stars did show up after profit taking,  as seen on this chart, but then paused and continued higher. This is how I am looking at this chart…

1. Each of these circled shooting stars had 1 red week that followed and then they went higher.

2. The current daily cycle is on day 30, so a dip into a dcl is due next week.

2. Next week is a Fed week. Please be mentally ready for a dip, I have been calling for that for weeks.

SILVER WEEKLY – This was a the strong break out from the downtrend that I was hoping for, but now we have a shooting star here too.  My discussion about this with Gold applies here too.

IN THE BIG PICTURE SILVER WEEKLY, I was pointing out that we needed a break out from that downtrend and then price could rocket higher, since Silver often moves very quickly. I think Silver will continue higher after we get a dip next week.

GDX WEEKLY– Miners have raced higher over the past few weeks as expected too. For the past few weeks all were admonished to buy and hold a basket of Miners ( or ETF) and ride this blast higher. We did this in past strong rallies like 2016, 2019, 2020, and I mentioned that those who were afraid to buy got left behind. Next chart please…

Here I am pointing out in 2016 that there were ‘Pauses’ at daily cycle lows along the way then too. I expect this current run to continue higher, but we may have ‘pauses’ along the way first.  Next week is a Fed Week and we are within the ‘cycle timing’ for a DCL, so we must expect a pullback on this coming week.

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SO THE GDX WEEKLY CHART has that ‘topping’ candle too.  I am cautious when I see that, but I have also seen those before and price continued higher too (blue arrows). Here I am pointing out ( where I wrote ‘top?’) an example of that where we had one of those candles about 1/2 way up. It dropped for 1 week and then shot up higher.  In the coming week a dcl (Daily Cycle Low) is due and the Fed meeting is scheduled.  We have to at least expect a dip.

GDX WEEKLY – This is the same view, but I drew in a possible 1 week drop on Fed Week next week, and then that continuation higher. I would love to see this chart play out this way even though we have to endure a dip on Fed Week. Many miners are still giving us surprises to the upside, so a basket of miners might not pull back all that much.

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If you get a chance, check out WEEKLY Charts of SSRM, NEM, GPL, VGZ, TRX, PVG, AUMN, and more. I think you’ll be surprised at how good these all look. It does look like the Juniors are starting to play catch up too.

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For example, GPL was recommended on March 4th with these 2 charts…

GPL was up 35% last week. Take a look at those others on a 2 yr weekly chart ( GSV, AUMN, PZG, etc). These may be set up to run next.

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Things have actually been playing out very much as expected over the past few weeks, with the General Markets struggling and pushing lower (we have shorted the bounces) and the Precious Metals running higher. Now we are at that point where the Fed Meeting has arrived and both of those sectors are ready to dip into a dcl.  Once we get through the F.O.M.C. Meeting and we get the anticipated dip into a dcl for the Precious Metals, that should be a buy signal for any that want to add. With the timing for Gold currently being day 31 Monday and day 33 Fed Wednesday, it is possible that the DCL COULD even come the day before Fed Wednesday, the day of Fed Wednesday, or the days after. We just have to watch how things play out, but things have really lined up well with our expectations!

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I hope that you’ve enjoyed the Weekend Review, thanks for being here at Chartfreak with me!/

~ALEX

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EDIT: These Weekend reports mainly cover the big picture and use weekly charts, but the day to day analysis can be found in the premium section Tuesday through Friday morning. I still cover the Markets as seen here, but when the set ups develop for trading or going long, I also include trade set ups in the daily weekday reports. If you think that this kind of analysis would compliment your trading, why not click on the ‘Sign up’ tab at the top of the page and try it out for a month. I have been  expecting this pull back in the precious metals and we are looking forward to buying opportunities and bullish set ups that should present themselves when the dust settles, possibly right after the Fed meeting. Thanks for checking out the weekend report.

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BITCOIN – This is not a bad set up ‘as is’, but the problem is that I expect lower price with the General Markets and Bitcoin often follows the General Markets . If it does NOT follow the General Markets lower and actually makes a higher low around day 60 in this triangle, this could be a bullish triangle for the next daily cycle to launch higher. The problem is that it hasn’t had follow through buying and we are on day 47.

1. We are running out of time for an upside rally to take place before a day 60 lows would be due.

2.  Chopping sideways and putting in a higher low near day 60 is Bullish.

3. The problem is that Bitcoin also has too much time left if it breaks down with the markets or Fed Mtg. It could break below the lows and head for a deeper 60 day low.

4. Conclusion: Caution is recommended, and I am on the sidelines watching for a break out  up or down. .

I wanted to open up my weekend report to the public.  Enjoy!

The Markets were ripping higher, and we enjoyed that ride for months too, along with the Bull Run in precious metals,  but the question is, “Were Chartfreak readers warned or even prepared in any way for the large drop that we got as this week started?”  The answer is Yes, we got a sell signal on Friday, one that I had been telling my readers to watch for .  Let me show you how we were looking at the markets.

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In late January, we were due to form a dcl  ( a dip daily cycle low).  The last one formed at the 34 sma, so I mentioned that this may be the next buy point,  but I did warn that this one is arriving late in the entire ‘intermediate cycle’.    With that in mind, I told my readers that we could buy it, but I also said that I would expect a break to new highs that could roll over quickly. We are due for a deeper drop into  an ICL over time, so I told them exactly what to look for day after day.

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SPX WEEKLY – On Friday, a sell signal that I had been giving my readers actually triggered, so we should sell & be out.  In the weekend report I pointed out other reasons why now we need to be very cautious about being long or jumping back in.  I had been showing strong divergence in my indicators. This looked toppy…

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I posted this.   Notice the blue arrows.  After a long run, a break of the 13 sma led to a drop into a dcl.  Thursday broke that 13 sma, and Friday was only day 14.  A close lower was a sell.  A BIG drop could follow over time, even chopping lower for weeks.

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Here I tried to show that even when markets get stretched, every 6-8 months we should get a deeper dip (ICL) and we have yet to see that. An ICL ( Deeper dip) is overdue.  We were expecting a drop, unless this market was just going to do a blow off parabolic drop.  The sharp drop would then come later.

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FINALLY THE SPX WEEKLY  FEB 21.   The Big Picture still looks as though markets could go parabolic if we only get a back test.  The bull may remain healthy after a deeper ICL correction, while the shorter term daily charts above are calling a top here.  This is  ONE thing that I will be watching going forward.   Will support hold or fail?

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What about GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS?  I had been tweeting out several charts showing that we were trading Miners successfully, but what was I putting in my day to day reports?  Here is a very brief review of how we played that sector too.

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GOLD – We actually caught the ICL in November and this break out of the wedge / triangle was confirmation of the bull run continuing.  NOTICE THAT I DREW IT AS LIKELY BECOMING CHOPPY AS IT HITS NEW HIGHS.   Like a cup & handle.   That was just to prepare us for the possible future  chop.

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THIS WAS ONE OF MANY GOLD BIG PICTURE CHARTS THAT I POSTED WEEKLY.  It shows us the Bull marching out of a base and back testing that break out.  I said that Gold should continue higher.

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JAN 17 –  There will be resistance causing choppiness, but it is still Bullish.

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And when we ran to prior highs,  it did get choppy as predicted earlier in December.  It was still Bullish, and here it broke out from a triangle again. I was encouraging my readers to remain long.  I posted many buy opportunities for  Various Miners, some that I tweeted out too.

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The GOLD BULL continued to act correctly with a bullish break out.

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SILVER IN JANUARY  was lagging Golds run, but it was still building a bullish base.  CAN YOU IMAGINE SILVER STOCKS WHEN THIS BREAKS OUT?  Some that we traded already doubled & tripled with Silver still inside of the base.

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Silver at the end of January was Bullish despite the chop &drop too in my eyes.  I said that I would expect to see this choppiness gradually form an inverse H&S.  THAT is a bullish pattern if you see one form…

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Well look at that! This is a current chart of Silver and the choppy inverse H&S formed.

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AND THE MINERS? We traded many of them. 

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 GDX was choppy as it dropped into the ICL, and I was getting a buy signal in November. I wanted to point out that that choppiness would soon be a blip in our memories in the big picture

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GDX –  It did run from $26ish to $28, but it remained choppy and frankly it was frustrating, but as it chopped, some individual miners were running higher…

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GDXJ –  by the time we got into early January price ran from the November lows to  prior highs.  I now expected a possible handle to form, and by  pointing that out here, it would help prepare my readers for possible more choppy sideways action.  I also tweeted this out.  Follow me at   @chart_freak

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GDX JAN 17 –  Though choppy, I wanted to show that the big picture weekly remained Bullish

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GDXJ – In mid February we finally got a break from our triangle, so I posted this at 10 a.m. in our live trading area ( an area set aside under each daily report for traders to discuss markets, share ideas, etc).  This was a good place to add.

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  GDXJ FEB 18 –  It held the 50 sma the whole time during that chop and By the close the break out was clear and volume was increasing.

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GDX FEB 24 – Now we have actually reached a ‘measured move’.  This is a conservative measure and it can stretch out higher, but for now we may see a Pause in the upside  (short term pause). A DCL is actually coming due.

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In todays premium report, I pointed out possible topping candles.  Some Miners got extended , and that black spinning top may be signaling that gains can be harvested and a pull back is coming.  A DCL is actually coming due in the Miners.

USAS  –Less extended Miners may not pull back as much as others.  USAS for example is a  Silver stock that may run higher if Silver breaks higher.  If Silver pulls back, this may do a smaller dip, since this is not as extended as other Miners.  A small dip as shown is reasonable.

ISLVF did get extended, so  a drop something like this is still possible and  yet it remains bullish.  This would  also offer a nice buying opportunity.

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Do you think that with your busy schedule, this kind of research may have helped assist you with your current trading style?  Many people just do not have the time to review the markets daily, and that is especially true if you are looking to trade many different individual stocks.   Along with TQQQ, AMD, SQ, TWTR, UBER, ZM, WORK, CRWD, and other tech companies during the bull run, we discussed & traded SOLARS, MJ STOCKS ( which were give & take as they put in their bottoming process) and of course many Miners like AUY, ELYGF, PAAS, SBGL, LGTDF, NEM, BARRICK GOLD, and more.  And just to be honest,  a few  that made great gains for us in May through September 2019 were set up nicely, but fell apart & stopped us out more recently like HMY , SVM, CDE.    What happens next? I cover it in my daily reports and I have a big weekend wrap up , usually released on Saturday.

  If you are too busy to do all of the research yourself, why not sign up & try a month or maybe even a quarterly subscription?  With some of the recent picks in Miners alone, your subscription would have paid for itself.  If you want to know more, click the link below.

Thanks for being here at Chartfreak !

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Hello and welcome back to Chartfreak. It has been a while since I did a public post, so what have we been busy with? While we have traded a variety of trade set ups, like AMD, MU, ENPH, VSLR, and other stocks like it in the General Markets, but we have also been watching the Precious Metals Sector very closely. Why? Well we caught the lows in May and rode many Miners higher into September. Some stocks like EGO, SBGL, HMY, DRD, etc doubled and tripled. After a strong rally, you often get a top and a consolidation period, so we exited leverage in August and sold many Miners in September, anticipating a consolidation period and then another strong run higher. Some individual Miners are still running nicely, like SBGL, SVM, HL, CDE, etc, so we continued to trade those, but we have been watching the correction in GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, etc closely, and I wanted to share what I am seeing now.

Monday Gold pushed a bit higher and it has closed above the 50 sma. On what would normally be a light volume week of holiday trading, GDX pushed away from the 50 sma with decent volume. We now wonder: "Is Gold about to rocket higher?" As mentioned, we have been anticipating that possibility for weeks as the sector churns sideways. The Bullish action in Miners on Monday seems to indicate that it is time to go higher and that this consolidation period will end soon.

Let's just take a look at some of the recent charts from past reports along with the current set ups, and discuss further what we have been looking for.