Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Thinking Out Loud

May 2, 2014 /4 Comments/in , /by

SUNDAY MAY 4  7 Charts Update on Metals/Miners

 

I'm still short term Bullish, long term 'Cautious'.  We have to be. The charts are shaping up nicely, but I'm always open to further lows into the Summer months. This caused me to want to look at Mostly weekly charts for this update. I want to keep commentary fairly brief and let you allow the charts to do the talking.

 

GDX WEEKLY- Notice how it Lost the 30WMA in the fall of 2012. It has regained and remained above it. It is something to watch. Will it hold Or will a perfect Inverse H&S form into the summer??

 

GDX WEEKELY

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SMOOOOTH SAILING! (w/Update)

April 25, 2014 /4 Comments/in , /by

APRIL 26 (Saturday Update added here)

In Trending markets, investing with a bias can be profitable.  At other times, however, like possible turning points or periods of volatility, you have to be willing to change direction FAST and Leave out any BIAS  until direction is established.  That said, lets quickly review the recent action in GDX. 

After a nice Dec to March Bull run in GDX , we got a false break out and an Impulsive drop. A tag of the 50sma & rejection (while Gold was up & $USD was down) alerted us to go short. THIS CHART shows that I thought we were in for another impulsive wave down.

 

GDX APRIL 14

 

THAT was April 14th, the Short was profitable.  Since then, my April 25th report (which can be read following this one) showed that GDX is possibly morphing into a long position?    I went long and here is my update of GDX from Fridays close---

Is is smooth sailing yet???Ummm.....

 

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-PLEASE DONT SHOOT THE MESSENGER-

April 20, 2014 /11 Comments/in , /by

UPDATE  4/23/2014 

 

POSSIBLY THE MOST IMPORTANT CHART FOR GOLD BUGS/ TRADERS  TO BE WATCHING I.M.H.O.

We just had a "WATERFALL" type sell off in MARCH.  Many started HATING MINERS again.  THAT sentiment is now turning to ,  "I NEED TO BUY THIS REVERSAL OR MISS THE MOVE".    THIS is what I am watching for, this chart should be Noted.

The prior "waterfall" sell offs last Fall DIDNT get above the 9 sma more than 1 time per month.  We already saw that in April,  So if we are going to have another leg down--- IT May be time to Fasten our seat belts?   Question

 

GDX WATERFALL SELL OFFS

 

From here it's easy-  as I write , we are currently right at the 9 S.M.A. , so its already  Show Time.  Can we break thru?  Or will it be held down here again?  Its definitely what I am watching.  ( Click chart to enlarge )

 

GDX LIVE April 23

Again...Please dont shoot the Messenger ,  I am just here trying to help people in their investing day. Best wishes to all Way To Go

 

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WHAT DO YOU SEE HERE?

April 15, 2014 /14 Comments/in , /by

APRIL 15    Some  see a BULL, but look closely , some see 2 men arguing whether its really a Bull.  Well ,if you follow me  on Twitter  you know that for a short while now I have posted charts calling for a drop in GOLD & especially the Miners GDX/GDXJ.   I still think the GOLD Bull is alive, but even strong Bull markets experience healthy corrections to lower sentiment and kick out the weaker hands.

 

In calling for a drop here, I have had a few Gold Bulls say that we recently had a 'double bottom', so another drop here and the Bull could be over. I was also told we'll crash thru last Junes lows , because "There is no such thing as a double bottom"!

Well, I found something that blew my mind Giving thumbs up animated emoticon and I wanted to share it with you. PLEASE STUDY & MEMORIZE THE SHAPE OF THE GOLD (GLD) WEEKLY CHART BELOW.  FOLLOW 1-5 on the right hand side, before moving on ...(Click chart to enlarge)

 

GLD PATTERN

The RUN UP, the TRIANGLE, the false break upward, the drop thru support, the double bottom...

-if we drop again,  MUST WE CRASH THRU JUNE 2013 LOWS?

-Is there really  "NO SUCH THING AS A TRIPLE BOTTOM"??

 

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UPDATE to my last post

April 11, 2014 /21 Comments/in , /by

APRIL 11, 2014 -  Please review my last report , it basically is still quite valid. I had some possible downside targets that havent been met yet (For ex: QQQ could visit the 200Sma), however with 'bounces' along the way and the "Should I 'Buy The Dip'? mode firmly in peoples minds- is it really just a roll of the Dice?

No.   BUY-SELL-HOLD is still a personal decision based on your trading/ investing goals...and our Energy & Steel  trades from weeks ago are still green, but for others - Tech stocks/Momo trades are a mess. Lets review a few charts ...

QQQ April 10

 

Nimble Traders can look for lower risk entries based on probabilities ( like oversold areas and trendline/moving average support,etc)  but in waterfall sell offs , even these can fail and one should not trade heavy sell offs unless they can monitor their trades intraday.

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The Phone Lines were ringing off the hook!!

April 8, 2014 in , /by

Well, to be honest, I got 2 requests on the Markets in general, but they are just as important to me Thumbs up animated emoticon

The Question was , "Did you see a pullback in the Markets approaching and is that why you moved to the Energy Sector?  If so, what did you see?"  

The answer is ,

"I did think the markets were toppy and in need of a pullback, and I expect a bounce soon, but It does not look like the downside is complete so far. (Recall my chart 2 posts back saying "Sell in May, Go away?").

The second part is , "No, I just entered the Energy sector because using tech Analysis, it was still 'set up properly'.  It also did withstand the heat recently."

 

Here is what I was looking at on March 21 . There was weakness in BOTH the weekly and daily charts ($1800 target?)

$SPX WEEKLY

 

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APRIL 3 – Too Much Of A Good Thing…

April 3, 2014 /13 Comments/in , /by

I dont want to overload anyone, but I look at so many charts and when I see what I think are  "Good probability set ups" or other "Interesting Ideas" & things to take note of, I'd rather give a variety of info and let the reader take what they want from it.

Let me start with simply something to take Note of...and then cover some  trade ideas past & possibly future.

 

$NDX Weekly-  Is this a sign of "Sell in May and go away"?   With each "higher High" (Colored arrows) the MACD momentum matched it.   Recently,however,  we see Momentum waning. Since this is a weekly chart , we could rise for a few more weeks (into May) , but THIS CHART causes me to take note and keep an eye on the strength of the next rise.

 

NDX TOPPING

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Explosive Energy

March 29, 2014 /14 Comments/in , /by

Those who've know me know that we've bought Energy Stocks successfully off and on since last summer.

Clean Energy, Green Energy , Nat Gas, Solars, Oil, etc have been On Fire (No pun intended?)   For newer readers, I want to post MANY visuals for you to see what has been happening recently, and then all will better understand what I am looking at when I post 'Energy Stocks that I am currently watching '. 

FIRST: Just notice the recent action in these energy stocks-

WG

 

PQ

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I didnt plan on talking about Gold & Miners but…

March 27, 2014 /5 Comments/in , /by

March 27, 2014     Yesterday I got a few emails asking what I thought about the meltdown in Miners. I cant say it wasnt expected, but I can say it was faster and steeper than I expected. On March 20th , we saw a "THRUST" in the price of Miners, but it quickly failed and broke below our consolidation triangle.  That means further downside....However I thought we would get a "TEST" of the Triangle and then continue down as seen in this chart of GDX from March 20

 

GDX March 20

 

The "TEST" was QUICK (Intraday) and the drop has been fast and on High volume, as seen in Todays chart.

 

 

GDX March 26

 

How far will it drop? Are we at support?  Is selling done? And  IS that an Inverse H&S forming?

 

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