Precious Metals - Alive Or Dead
I see a lot of people have started absolutely hating Precious Metals and Miners in recent weeks, and that is understandable. Gold, Silver, and the Miners have taken a dive, especially since the recent Election results in the U.S. They cannot seem to catch a bid, and each reversal just doesn't seem to stick, even though Oil and Metals like Steel, Aluminum, and Copper rocketed higher.
We have to ask: Is the Bull dead or Alive in this sector?
Here at Chartfreak, we have been discussing this extensively throughout the past several weeks. I'd like to open up a portion of the weekend report from Dec 4th, along with a few charts from earlier reports, to show how we have been monitoring these areas. Enjoy.
As of Nov 18th, GDX was already at an important Fib retracement of 61.8%, so we looked for the sell off to stop in this area.Read More
You may have heard that you should not buy precious metals miners until after a ‘blood bath phase’. I mentioned within my (premium May 18) report that I have received numerous emails telling me that warnings were out that the next Intermediate Term Cycle Low (ICL – A cycle low that occur every 5-6 months) will not come until we first see a huge sell off within precious metals. Many fear that the blood-bath is still directly ahead, and some think it will occur around the Brexit vote (June 23rd).
Today, I would like to share with you just a brief excerpt on what I’m looking at here within the precious metals sector. And within my coming weekend member report, I will be going into much more detail on what one should expect in the coming months.
Below is a chart that shows what happened coming out of the 2008 lows, when many were also looking for a an ICL and “blood bath” sell-off. As you can see, advances out of bear market lows do not follow the typical script. Simply put, there was no blood-bath to be found around six months after the Oct 2008 lows…it occurred almost one year later.
Actually, for the past two weeks, I have been saying that we could be at or past the next important low in the precious metals sector. Last weekend’s report discussed this idea further, and this weekend, I will include more research on that theme.
I also mentioned that a gold break above the overhead down trend line would give further evidence that we saw an ICL, without a blood-bath phase. This was gold on June 9th.
USD – The USD was in decline, but due for a Daily Cycle low (DCL) this week. On Thursday, the USD took back three days of losses, but Gold and Silver moved higher despite this strength. We have seen a change of character here, where the dollar can rise and gold manage to resist the expect drop in response. See also Feb 2016 on this chart.
It will never be a straight run higher with precious metals, it takes discipline and patience. However, gold bull markets are known to surprise and have the ability to leave so many people behind. With this weekend’s report, I will outline what I believe is occurring today and will cover what members could expect going forward.
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The Gold Bull MarketDo you think the Gold Bull Market has returned? Obviously I do, and have been trading as if the Gold Bull Market has returned. You need to be aware of this opportunity and appreciate that another big move in this Gold Bull Market is again developing. If this next move is anything like the moves seen during past Gold Bull Market's, then you will not want to miss the next buying entry after this current correction winds down. I was able to successfully guide Chart Freak members through the recent 100% rally in gold miners when we bought the lows back in the middle of January. Those gains were exceptional, to say the least. In some cases, junior miners rose up by 500% off the lows, and are now consolidating those gains in preparation for the next leg higher. My recent weekend report (premium version) took a deeper look at Gold's recent correction and how the current action in the US Dollar may impact the precious metals market. However, it is again time to start paying closer attention to the Precious Metals markets, because after-all this is a Gold Bull Market. Let me take you through some of the premium content I shared recently and review what I believe is occurring.
Gold WeeklyGold has finally started that correction, as seen on this weekly chart. Read More
After a solid 5 day rally, gold sold off on Thursday, and the precious metals miners were sold-off indescriminetly. Both GDX and GDXJ were down almost 6%, leading many to be shaken out of position on the pullback. For me, these events are expected and become opportunities, so lets examine the charts to see why.
$GOLD - a pullback to the 10 & 20 sma as support is normal.Read More