Precious Metals Primer - A peek into the next phase - chart freak

Precious Metals Primer – A peek into the next phase

Precious Metals

You may have heard that you should not buy precious metals miners until after a ‘blood bath phase’.  I mentioned within my (premium May 18) report that I have received numerous emails telling me that warnings were out that the next Intermediate Term Cycle Low (ICL – A cycle low that occur every 5-6 months) will not come until we first see a huge sell off within precious metals.  Many fear that the blood-bath is still directly ahead, and some think it will occur around the Brexit vote (June 23rd).

Today, I would like to share with you just a brief excerpt on what I’m looking at here within the precious metals sector.  And within my coming weekend member report, I will be going into much more detail on what one should expect in the coming months.

Below is a chart that shows what happened coming out of the 2008 lows, when many were also looking for a an ICL and “blood bath” sell-off.  As you can see, advances out of bear market lows do not follow the typical script.  Simply put, there was no blood-bath to be found around six months after the Oct 2008 lows…it occurred almost one year later.


Precious Metals Primer - A peek into the next phase - chart freak

Actually, for the past two weeks, I have been saying that we could be at or past the next important low in the precious metals sector. Last weekend’s report discussed this idea further, and this weekend, I will include more research on that theme.

I also mentioned that a gold break above the overhead down trend line would give further evidence that we saw an ICL, without a blood-bath phase. This was gold on June 9th.


GOLD Precious Metals Primer - A peek into the next phase - chart freak


USD – The USD was in decline, but due for a Daily Cycle low (DCL) this week.  On Thursday, the USD took back three days of losses, but Gold and Silver moved higher despite this strength. We have seen a change of character here, where the dollar can rise and gold manage to resist the expect drop in response.  See also Feb 2016 on this chart.


USD vs GOLD Precious Metals Primer - A peek into the next phase - chart freak


It will never be a straight run higher with precious metals, it takes discipline and patience.  However, gold bull markets are known to surprise and have the ability to leave so many people behind.  With this weekend’s report, I will outline what I believe is occurring today and will cover what members could expect going forward.


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39 replies
  1. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    how about the other weird alternate reality of gold still being totally range bound and below it’s highs set March April and May, and yet the miners are still accelerating – at least they were, but gdxj just went red.

  2. Rob
    Rob says:

    Things still seem cloudy to me, using cycles. This is day 8 of Gold’s cycle, and it just peaked (perhaps). The questions is, “Is this the beginning of the half-cycle or is the top of the daily cycle?”. If it’s the top of the daily cycle, then we still have a ICL ahead of us. If a cycle is to be left-translated, it often tops by day 8….Gold is toying with us AGAIN. LOL

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:


          Well, I already started gather charts for the weekend Gold questions , and that was one of them.
          Whenever an ICL is in place and we dont think it is acting correctly, we question it. Fear of losses over rule.

          In the weekend report ( this is a clue, not the whole thing) , I point out the GOLD ICL Dec 3 2015.

          NOBODY believed that it was an ICl, because it wasnt acting the way people think it should. It didnt rocket right to the moon “Like an ICL must do”. I got so many emails saying that it was way too weak to be a real low.

          The current low doesnt look weak at all.

  3. Rob
    Rob says:

    This is day 11 in GDX’s daily cycle and it could have possibly peaked today. Does this mean it will be right translated?? Questions, questions. 🙂

  4. jscottrx
    jscottrx says:

    if gold was say $5,000 would that not create personal safety risks? crowns, rings, watches. the gov’t would probably k, let’s have it. all ya precious metals. illegal to physically possess.

  5. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    So here is my conspiracy theory: Wall Street was not pricing in a rate hike for June, and when Janet began sounding hawkish, they got nervous. The last jobs report might have been enough to put a damper on that idea– HOWEVER the case for a rate hike is even less likely if
    Oil tanks below $50 and the market looks shaky before the meeting.

    This is all a calculated ploy as well – weak hands that just jumped in on this oil and nat gas spike get spooked by all the fear mongers that will come out in the next couple days. Stops will be ruthlessly taken out. The big boys get to go bargain shopping in the final minutes of the market, so no one notices.

    Then when the Fed announces no rate hike on Wed– all those bargain buys take off ….

    And Leonardo de Caprio buys a yacht and sprays expensive champagne on the bikini clad bodies of young nubile women.

  6. jscottrx
    jscottrx says:

    looks like Russia is preparing to invade somewhere over there. wonderful. i guess they feel they have nut and honey to lose. unfortunately for them, u.s. is militarily in a go ahead, make my day mood lately. china better behave too.

    • Peter Castillo
      Peter Castillo says:

      Case man, I see us forming some pretty nefarious candles. I just sold out of CENX, VALE, and SID as well. Really thought SID would hold up better than AKS, and it has not. Keeping EXK and KGC still, but seriously thinking of what to do with those. This is a pretty ugly reversal, with GDXJ hitting a negative div in the weekly in RSI and histogram. I might go out of town next couple of weeks and won’t be paying attention to markets, so I’d rather be on the safe side.

  7. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    I was expecting this today :/ I am still hanging on to VALE, CENX, AA, AKS, FCX, BTE and SID (sorry Peter, I actually like having smaller positions in many stocks, rather than larger positions in less than 10)

    Things look bleak now, but this seems to happen regularly on “Fed Friday’s”

    Cue the music: (pardon the intro ad)

  8. SonOfGud
    SonOfGud says:

    I am hopeful for Brexit, but i feel the ‘establishment’ is just too strong at the moment and the EU will have to eventually destruct on its own undemocratic contradictions.
    I’m afraid the ‘remain’ side is far from level-headed, with the threats of global meltdown & war in Europe should we leave.
    .. or we are all just ‘little englander’ racists, if we wish to control our own borders.

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