Riding The Dips

As expected, the Fed Mtg on Wednesday certainly gave us some dips to work with. We saw both strength and weakness as a result.

SPY -  This was a tough dip to ride 'real time', but the markets closed back at the highs.

SPY 10-28 Read More

Hang On Kids- Its Fed Wednesday!

What can I say here when we all know that charts could be quite different after the Fed Mtg on Wednesday? Lets just review some expectations.

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The SPX, Dow Jones and NASDAQ  have recovered nicely from the summer sell off, but a few areas have yet to catch up  (If they are going to). I showed this rather bullish looking set up yesterday, but...

IWM 10-26

Today the TRAN , IWM, and IWC  sold off nearing the close. Is it a fake sell off or is smart money heading for the exits Pre-Fed? Lets take a look...

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$NATGAS – Public Report

I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about the  NATGAS plunge.  It has dropped roughly from $3.00 to $2.00 since May!  It’s bouncing today , so I wanted to take a look at a couple of charts and point out to members in the premium report this morning what we have before us technically. I will share 3 of those charts here.

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Starting with a close up.  ( Note: This volume was erroneous and later adjusted at stockcharts).

NATGAS  has basically finished a measured move.  It also broke well below the Bollinger Band, so a bounce was to be expected.  A buy for a trade maybe, but will the  bounce put in a higher low or could it roll over like prior bounces?   It would be good to know. 

NATGAS 10-26

 

 So stepping back,  I see that a bounce to the wedge and another drop wouldn’t be out of the question.  If I was trading this bounce, I would keep this chart in mind. Prior lows in 2012 were at $1.90.  and the lower wedge trend line is around that area.  Lets zoom back one more time.

NATGAS 2012

 

This chart shows that a prior Double Bottom Low in 2002 in the $1.88 area. That 2nd low on that double bottom was an undercut of $1.85, so we may see support in the $1.80’s and lower $1.90’s.  $1.90’s since the 2012 lows were $1.90 shown in the chart above.

NATGAS LONG TERM

 

I am not trading NATGAS right now, but the bollinger band crash on Mondays daily chart was indicating that a bounce should follow shortly.  Stepping back and looking at a couple of longer-term charts, we see that we either made higher lows here or there could be better support a little bit lower near $1.90.  Double bottoms are common and sometimes they undercut recent lows with divergence. 

I will be looking for that in the future and we may see another entry point if  Natgas returns to its recent lows.  If I was trading this bounce,  and maybe you are, I would just keep the long term charts in mind and use a trailing stop or take profits with Fib Bounce #’s   or whatever method you use to cash in on a trade.   I would also keep in mind the crazy market activity that is often seen around FED WEDNESDAY and stay alert.

Happy trading

~ALEX

Ready To Run?

Not a whole lot has changed since my Weekend report. This is a week with a Fed Mtg on Wednesday, and I dont usually expect a lot of action until the deed is done.  My weekend report covered  a couple of different scenarios going into the Fed Mtg, so lets see how things played out on Monday.

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$USD -  2 left translated cycles and then a strong surge higher with news from the ECB & CHINA last week. We are pausing at resistance.  Is the USD waiting on the Fed?

USD 10-26 Read More

That Was Different – Weekend Review

The Dollar was ripping higher this week and we saw the Markets break out higher too. Oddly enough, Gold, Silver, and the Miners were staying green during that run higher too. That was different. Lets take a look at the weeks action and discuss what we are seeing.

SPX WKLY -  This was pretty impressive, I expected at least a pause at overhead resistance.  Notice the break above horizontal resistance / Magenta line  too  ( I will discuss that in a moment). 

SPX WKLY OCT 23

I had this chart in a report last week, to show that the SPX broke down from a long term channel and may struggle a bit ( Just a Back Test or break back inside?).  We are very close to breaking back inside.

SPX 10-22

So here is what I wanted to look at next...

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Was That Smoke & Mirrors?

Did you see the Dollar rocket higher 1.38 and not  send Gold, Silver, and the Miners to their knees? Silver and Miners actually closed higher, so that was like a crazy illusion.  And then AMZN reported a profit and shot up $70 in after hrs, MCD, GOOG,  and MSFT are up big in after hrs after the markets already broke out higher today. Lets check out the action...

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SPX -  The SPX , DJIA, and NASDAQ broke out today, but the BIIB, IWM & IWC  lagged seriously. 

SPX 10-22 2 Read More

Slight Variations

Did you read my Tuesday report and the Wednesday report? Not much has changed in the way of expectations really.  We could say that we are  just seeing a slight variation of the same theme.

Wednesday morning I pointed out the resistance above at the close on Tuesday for the   NASDAQ, SPX, IWM, etc.   Even though the Futures were Green, I thought that we would drop later in the day.

NASDAQ Tuesday OCT 20

NASDAQ 10-20

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Public Post – Equity Markets at Resistance

Many sectors of the market look ready to break one way or the other. Can we gain an edge as to which way they will go, or is it just a coin toss? Lets take a closer look.

 

This was the NASDAQ at the close on Monday. It was pushing against resistance in various forms.

NASDAQ 10-19

Notice what seems to have showed up by the close today...

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The Coin Toss

Many sectors of the market look ready to break one way or the other. Can we gain an edge as to which way they will go, or is it just a coin toss? Lets take a closer look.

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This was the NASDAQ at the close on Monday. It was pushing against resistance in various forms.

NASDAQ 10-19

Notice what seems to have showed up by the close today...

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Mixed Reviews

Mondays show opened up to mixed reviews.

SPX -  SO far we have seen a nice move up from the double bottom lows, but there is some resistance slightly overhead.

SPX 10-19

So here is where the reviews get a bit mixed...

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