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Golden Surprise

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I want to open up part of my weekend report discussing GOLD, SILVER, and THE MINERS.  I have been saying that using Cycle Timing ( among other things) , we are due for an UPSIDE SURPRISE.   Let me get right into the discussion that I had with my premium readers this past weekend…

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USD DAILY  – This was July 15 and if you read the chart,  I thought that the USD could bounce once more, but then drop.  Why? LOOK AT THAT MACD WEAKNESS, and overhead resistance.

 

 

USD DAILY JULY 19  – So we got the bounce and the USD was rejected at resistance. A bear wedge was also now being pointed out by me. A drop in the USD is good for GOLD…

 

USD DAILY NOW – Friday showed that day 8 was likely the top, The USD Dropped below the 10sma. I see a swing high and this is overbought. The USD selling off should help Precious Metals…

 

USD WEEKLY – Rejected again and again at the double resistance on a weekly, it looks like the USD is ready to finally drop ( and  GOLD should rally).  What?  The Long awaited ICL in Gold?  I think so.  Let’s discuss Precious Metals now that we’ve seen the US Dollar situation…

 

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

GOLD KEEPS DROPPING, BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE MANY TIMES.  I really have.  Often people keep trying to buy the dips & remain very bullish when an ICL is due, but they must keep getting stopped out until fear prevents them from believing that GOLD is still a good buy.  This is the very kind of selling that is designed to “Flush out the weak hands” and to “Change the bullish Sentiment by emotionally scaring people away” while bigger players can enter.

You will read many  reasons why ‘Precious Metals are toast’,  ‘Gold is an Old relic with no value’, etc. etc. at an ICL. Ignore the crowd mentality, an ICL will form and Gold is going to rally.

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COT – The COT , as of last Tuesday, was  slightly better than last Julys ICL, and better than Decembers 2017 too. Gold dropped a bit more last week, so it probably even got better.

 

 

GOLD DAILY  – Gold put in a reversal on Friday.   Look at the steep drop of the last 3-4 weeks, but my propitiatory indicators are not dropping.  That is BULLISH, we should be at or close to the lows.

 

CLOSE UP GOLD DAILY – FRIDAY REVERSAL – Here is the reversal Friday.

1. The lows of Thursday were not taken out, and the highs were, that is a swing low.

2. If Gold moves higher, we get further confirmation

3. Remember that the USD looks set to drop on a daily & weekly

4. We are LATE in our cycle timing

 

GOLD WEEKLY  – A very Nice Reversal Candle on the weekly chart.  I am using Green Arrows to show that once the lows are in, you get ‘weeks’ of upside as it sling shots out of the lows.  That would make my day thumbs up emoticon

 

SILVER WEEKLY  – Reversal Candle on Silvers weekly chart too.

 

GDX WEEKLY – Miners started to sell off, but nothing like Gold.  THAT is a big deal. We could see Miners do a quick FLUSH below the lower trend line, but so far Miners have been resisting Golds sell off.

 

GDXJ – GDXJ Is on support at this point.

 

And then you have the Miners,  which I have tried to put on display here to show how they are being accumulated despite the Metals selling off.   I have pointed out strong Miners racing higher as Gold sells off, like KL, GORO, RGLD, etc.

 

GORO-– Would you know by looking at this miner that Gold has been selling off?

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Now lets take 1 more quick look, I am now going to show you some of the  Miners that may still  be near or at their lows, because they could quickly play catch up with a GOLD ICL.  Then our weekend wrap up is finished.

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TRX –  When I say  Jim Sinclair, what do you think of?  Yes, Gold.  🙂  I have owned  Tanzanian Royalty in 2018. As Gold sold off to new 1 yr lows, this is actually trending higher. That was a solid reversal at support on Thursday July 19. Also the rally from March lows to May highs was roughly a 100% gainer for the alert trader. I sold that rally to lock in gains, but re-entered recently.

 

DRD WEEKLY – I mentioned that I bought DRD a couple of days ago, and now I see the weekly chart as a break out & back test. It was up 6% last week.

 

MUX WEEKLY – The weekly chart of MUX does not look like “Gold has been selling off and will not stop” like you read in ‘popular’ bearish reports.    It has been slowly rising for weeks and Popped this week 10%.  The Weekly RSI is over 60. This is not bearish action at the lows,  it is bullish, even  though GOLD is at 1 year lows.

 

EGO WEEKLY  –   I see EGO as a large inverse H&S too, and it closed above the 10ma on a weekly chart. If the RSI on a weekly basis is about to cross the 50% as Gold sells off to 1 yr lows,  that is also Bullish action, not bearish.

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I AM BULLISH.   MANY MINERS ARE SETTING UP NICELY.    Our Current set up in Gold looks Bullish too.  We are due for an ICL in Gold & we have a reversal late in our daily cycle as of Thursday.  On top  of that, the USD is set to drop into an DCL, and it is even coming due for an ICL over time.

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The sling shot has been stretched back over the past few weeks,  I’d love to see Gold start to Make Our Day this week!  We will watch for some upside follow through to ‘confirm’ whether or not  GOLDS LOWS are in place.   It does look very good, with Miners leading the way and the USD topping.    party blower smiley

 

~ALEX

 

SIDENOTE:  Recap & Review of 2 other sectors.

 

AKS – Last week I mentioned that I liked other metals too.  I used this chart of AKS, and mentioned to see  X, CLF, CLD.

 

CLF  –  CLF had some pretty sweet follow through Friday, so the other Metals may still have some too.

 

And the URANIUMS were pointed out weeks ago as having bullish set ups. This was UUUU breaking out in June…

UUUU – 3 weeks ago,  UUUU was up 25%, and then consolidated.  Others did this also.

 

UUUU – After consolidating, and quite frankly, looking a bit ugly Wednesday on that POP & DROP, it put in a reversal candle Thursday and popped 13,50% Friday. This is a bullish set up.

 

 

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Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) - Chart Freak

Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)

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Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)

 

A REMINDER OF JAN 2016 -

  Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) - Chart Freak - ChartFreak Read More

JANUARY 2017 – WHAT TIME IS IT?

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It's time to see what 2017 has to offer us as traders and investors!

We've started the new year and trading has already been very exciting in various sectors that we at Chartfreak have been looking into.  So 'What time is it?'  It's also time to get on board and make some money in a variety of bullish set ups that are appearing in the markets!  This is a glimpse what we have been looking at lately.

 

GOLD - I love deep sell offs, because they can lead to strong bounces or recovery.  We were waiting for a close above the 10sma. Some Miners bottomed first, but Gold needed to close above the 10sma to start a bullish move higher.

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Precious Metals – Alive Or Dead?

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Precious Metals - Alive Or Dead

I see a lot of people have started absolutely hating Precious Metals and Miners in recent weeks, and that is understandable.  Gold, Silver, and the Miners have taken a dive, especially since the recent Election results in the U.S.  They cannot seem to catch a bid, and each reversal just doesn't seem to stick, even though Oil and Metals like Steel, Aluminum, and Copper rocketed higher. 

We have to ask: Is the Bull dead or Alive in this sector?

 

Here at Chartfreak, we have been discussing this extensively throughout the past several weeks.  I'd like to open up a portion of the weekend report from Dec 4th, along with a few charts from earlier reports, to show how we have been monitoring these areas.  Enjoy.

As of Nov 18th,  GDX was already at an important Fib retracement of 61.8%, so we looked for the sell off to stop in this area.

  gdx-11-18 Read More

RECALCULATING ROUTE

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Have you ever been driving along using your GPS and you decide that maybe you're going to take a short cut to your destination?  The GPS detects that you have left the designated course and immediately needs to compensate by announcing, "Recalculating Route!".  Well last week sectors of the markets took sharp detours right after the elections. Using over 50 charts, this weekend report will discuss the road we find ourselves on now.

 

SPX - Nov 1st , Expecting a trade-able  ICL, maybe in the 2070 area.

 

spx-10-31

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Are You Shopping For Your Favorite Miners?

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Sometimes it is not enough to go shopping when things are on sale, we all like to get the rock bottom prices. In the Precious Metals sector we caught the lows in Mid January and at the end of May, when they experienced a serious sell off.  Looking for certain signs of a bottom, we started to see it as it was approaching. As you probably know, the Precious Metals sector has again been caught up in a deep sell off.  Here at Chartfreak we’ve been expecting this, as seen in my public posts as well as my premium posts.  I had been mentioning as far back as July and August that we should be looking for a deep correction and then a trade-worthy bottom, likely at the end of September or October.  Will this sell off continue, or are we near the bottom? Lets look at some of the charts from my weekend report and see what we’ve been looking at!  We’ll skip right to the Precious Metals section.

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 GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

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The COT levels are back where they were in May at that Deep trade-able low (ICL), and GOLD is now late in the ‘daily timing’ for a cycle low, so this starts to look good. 

cot-11-14

 

GOLD – Golds did not have a proper swing low in place as of Friday, but we do see signs of bottoming.  Daily cycles do not extend much further than 25 -30 days, and we see that a low formed on day 25 so far.  That means that Friday was either Day 30 of this sell off daily cycle or day 5 of a new daily cycle and lows could be in place at $1243.20. Follow through higher above 1267.60 places a swing low in place.

gold-10-14

SILVER – Silver has a proper swing low, but it is not really ‘confirmed’ yet. I want to see a break above the 10sma as follow through.

silver-10-14

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NEAR OR AT THE LOWS? TIME TO DIG DEEPER

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GDX – Looking back to Oct 6th, I started to tell everyone that often GDX bottoms in a way that looks easy to buy in hindsight, but it is NOT.  Look at those May lows. I said that we could see the same type of bottom form around the 200sma, as we saw at the 50sma. It scares away buyers looking for support in that area…

gdx-10-6

And there you go, twins.  Easy to buy, right?  No.  🙂  On this chart I got 1 ‘buy’ signal that triggered Wednesay using an indicator that I developed over time (the lower section).

gdx-10-14

 

GDX OCT 12th – This system that I developed years ago triggered a ‘buy’ on Oct 12th ( see the lower section).  It is at times scary, because it often triggers before a strong move higher.  In the past it has been very accurate. Again, the progress since this Oct 12th chart is seen on the above chart in the lower section.

gdx-trigger

GDX – This points out that Day 27 was either the low and we saw Day 3 on Friday, or if we drop 1 more time, we extend this daily cycle to the limits.  That in mind, I believe that any drop would be a shake out and then rebound.

gdx-10-14-a

Please recall that back on Oct 6th , I said that $22.08 was a measured move that is possible too, but not necessary.  It also leads to a back test of that orange channel, but notice that we did back test that already in the May sell off. So another quick slam down and recovery is still possible, but that tag of that blue channel is usually enough in a bull market sell off. This sell off should be finishing up.

gdx-10-6-2

I used this chart in a report last week to show that the GDX:GOLD ratio was turning up.  I wrote in the middle of this chart that a cross of the 8sma is a buy for some technical traders, but I find it a bit risky and not a low risk buy when used all by itself. We did not have a cross over yet at that point.

gdx-gold

GDX:$GOLD UPDATE : We got that cross over.  If Gold drops or Miners rise faster than Gold, we get the cross over.  Monday we will look to see if this holds or gives way. 

gdx-gold-10-14

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EDIT:  This is Mondays chart, the cross over the blue line held and it looks like it back tested. This shows us that even though GOLD hadn’t places a proper swing low in place, Miners are leading.

gdx-gold-10-17

WEEKEND REPORT CONCLUSION: We are waiting for a confirmed swing low and a push higher.  Oil and NATGAS remain bullish,  but I sold my energy positions to focus on the Precious metals.  We are deep into the timing for a low in Gold, Silver, and Miners, and I think that this is where some nice gains will be made next.  I expect a run higher very soon, and I will cover set ups and entries in Miners when those lows are confirmed.

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Are you ready to go shopping in the precious metals sector? Back in May 2016 at the lows, we entered what I considered to be low risk bullish set ups in VGZ, MUX, and TRX and these ran up 100-250% in 2 months! Why not sign up at chartfreak and add this analyses to your own method of trading. If this run is anything like the run we saw out of the January lows or the May lows, 1 trade will more than pay for your monthly or quarterly membership. In Monday evenings report, I discussed a few Miners that had low risk set ups.

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Chart Freak Premium

Chart Freak members receive up to 5 premium reports per week covering a wide array of markets, as this public post illustrates.  Come and join the ChartFreak community as we trade the new Gold Bull Market and various trending sectors.

join-now

~ALEX

 

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SIDENOTE: BPGDM

 People have asked me, “Does the BPGDM have to drop further like in Aug 2015”? No, not if we are in a re-newed bull market.

In the summer 2015, Miners were TRASHED and the BPGDM was about as low as it gets, then some Miners started to recover before the GDX lows were really in place.  So when we were looking for the LOWS in GDX last year ( they actually came in mid January 2016)  BPGDM was rising, not falling. Some Miners were already being accumulated  BEFORE THE ICL.

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Look at the MAY 2016 ICL.  If someone says that the BPGDM has to drop lower now, before an ICL can be in place,  then why did it hold up so well at the May ICL?  We are already lower than the May ICL, isnt that enough? We are almost at the January 2015 ICL level  (but we do not have to go there).

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Currently, the BPGDM has dropped as much as it needs to to remove bullish sentiment. Many people are no longer interested in ‘taking a chance on Miners’.  THAT IS BULLISH.

bpgdm

Gold Core Positions and Miners

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 Gold Core Positions and Miners

 

Note: This post is an except from a nightly member only report.

 

SPX - Not much has changed over the past several days, but consolidations often lead to strong moves.

SPX 8-1

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Public Report – The Uphill Climb

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The Uphill Climb

When a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb is always easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness,  even drop back and pursue a different path to the top.  I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. (Long term they remain bullish in my opinion), WTIC - This was June 14 and we were on day 50 of a Cycle, so it was already late in crude oil's daily cycle and I was expecting a low soon.   WTIC 4-14 Read More
Precious Metals Primer - A peek into the next phase - chart freak

Precious Metals Primer – A peek into the next phase

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Precious Metals

You may have heard that you should not buy precious metals miners until after a ‘blood bath phase’.  I mentioned within my (premium May 18) report that I have received numerous emails telling me that warnings were out that the next Intermediate Term Cycle Low (ICL – A cycle low that occur every 5-6 months) will not come until we first see a huge sell off within precious metals.  Many fear that the blood-bath is still directly ahead, and some think it will occur around the Brexit vote (June 23rd).

Today, I would like to share with you just a brief excerpt on what I’m looking at here within the precious metals sector.  And within my coming weekend member report, I will be going into much more detail on what one should expect in the coming months.

Below is a chart that shows what happened coming out of the 2008 lows, when many were also looking for a an ICL and “blood bath” sell-off.  As you can see, advances out of bear market lows do not follow the typical script.  Simply put, there was no blood-bath to be found around six months after the Oct 2008 lows…it occurred almost one year later.

 

Precious Metals Primer - A peek into the next phase - chart freak

Actually, for the past two weeks, I have been saying that we could be at or past the next important low in the precious metals sector. Last weekend’s report discussed this idea further, and this weekend, I will include more research on that theme.

I also mentioned that a gold break above the overhead down trend line would give further evidence that we saw an ICL, without a blood-bath phase. This was gold on June 9th.

 

GOLD Precious Metals Primer - A peek into the next phase - chart freak

 

USD – The USD was in decline, but due for a Daily Cycle low (DCL) this week.  On Thursday, the USD took back three days of losses, but Gold and Silver moved higher despite this strength. We have seen a change of character here, where the dollar can rise and gold manage to resist the expect drop in response.  See also Feb 2016 on this chart.

 

USD vs GOLD Precious Metals Primer - A peek into the next phase - chart freak

 

It will never be a straight run higher with precious metals, it takes discipline and patience.  However, gold bull markets are known to surprise and have the ability to leave so many people behind.  With this weekend’s report, I will outline what I believe is occurring today and will cover what members could expect going forward.

 

Chart Freak Premium

Chart Freak members receive up to 5 premium reports per week covering a wide array of markets, as this public post illustrates.  Come and join the ChartFreak community as we trade the new Gold Bull Market and various trending sectors.

join-now

~ALEX

 

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Market Turning Points And Trading

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Market Turning Points And Trading

 

In a recent premium report, I reviewed interesting Market turning points that are showing up across various sectors.  I'd like to share some of that with you now.  Please note that most of this information was released in the weekend report of May 21st or within previous reports.

 

S&P 500 - SPX -  We see a mild pullback in the General Markets after a strong rally.  Not even a 38.2% retrace yet.  Many advisors were becoming very bearish and pointing to a possible H&S pattern, with a big drop to come. I see that H&S pattern, but they often fail, as I was more focused on a few other areas that indicated the markets were going to break out higher, not lower.

  Chart Freak - $SPX Read More