TRADE IDEAS
I have a lot to cover, so lets just do a quick review and on to the charts...
SPX - as the consolidation continues it goes from looking weak to looking more bullish
In prior posts I wrote that...
Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak
Entries by Alex - Chart Freak
Question: Do You Know What This Is Called?
Answer: Frustrating ! Actually its an example of a trading range. Often after a stock or index Price has run higher , you get a sideways consolidation that is called a trading range. They can form as flags, wedges, channels, etc. It can be a trading opportunity on one hand, buy the lows & sell the top/ flip and short the top , ride down to the lows. If you aren't an active trader, however, and you are just waiting for some directional move, a nice trend to ride? It can be a little frustrating. Its tough to tell which way it will break, and the chart above actually looks like it may break higher. The chart below is the end result of the chart above.
The reason that I bring this up is because our markets are currently in a consolidation too...
QUITE A BATTLE GOING ON
We have been watching some great battles going on, and thankfully we have been able to make some nice trades despite the up & down action of the various markets. Volatility can be a traders paradise, but an investors nightmare as price basically can remain the same in the up & down battle for direction. Having technical analysis, some cycle counts , and a bit of experience in our tool box , we gain an edge in certain areas. This weekend report will highlight some interesting charts ( 24 charts again to be exact!) ...so to the charts!!!
Well look at this break out in OIL
It exploded at the end of Friday and shot up 8%. That is a lot for a commodity like OIL. It closed above the 10 & 20 sma for the first time in a long time , as you can see.
Quick Friday Update
I dont always see the need to post Friday , because Thursdays report covers my expectations and Friday usually doesnt leave me with much to say until the big weekend report. Today I just felt the need for a quick update because 2 questions arise...
1. Has anything changed?
2. Do you want to hold over the weekend? QUICK commentary
$NATGAS - The "Floor" broke down. May just be a 'test', but you should be out
SPX/QQQ/DJIA ...
Things Are Looking A Little Clearer Now
You can just Re-Read yesterdays report on the General markets , and then come back here and see how much clearer it looks with the charts supplied today. Yesterday I was saying that Futures where up , but could it last? ....
Well, Let me just start with a chart that I posted yesterday ...
Now check this out...
F.O.M.C – Back At The Crossroads
(This report was written Tuesday night )
Warning, this report goes against " common group think" Why? Well , I want to show why slowly but surely it looks like the "Buy The Dips" crowd may be exiting the building and the next few charts may be proof. AAPL & YHOO had pretty good earnings, can they save the day? Or will it prove to be just another bounce? We shall soon see, but it's also another F.O.M.C. Wednesday and as you know...anything can happen after 2 P.M. Eastern time! In the meantime, lets glance at a few charts.
MSFT - Oh she used to be a wall street darling. This is a Weekly chart and so far the volume is HUGE for 2 days.
Is that just a fluke? A one bad amongst many beauties? ...
I WANT TO SHARE SOME TRADE IDEAS
Due to the Storm approaching New England, I may lose power ( As mentioned in my wkend report), So I want to share a few possible trade ideas for you to watch , in case I wont able to post anything tomorrow. Let me start by showing you an Energy stock that got taken out to the whipping post. It is beaten down and double bottomed. It seems like all of the downside ( At least for now) has been met. Risk reward is skewed toward less risk (Using stops) and more upside potential if conditions play out. Some of these stocks could just "Bounce" and do very well.
EXXI WEEKLY - Double bottom with a MACD cross?
Why would I call it low risk though? Isnt it high risk, in danger of getting cut in half again? Well, consider this...
I Want To Emphasize Caution
Have you ever seen Black Ice? living in New England I've seen it a lot. It looks like solid dry black pavement, but Suddenly you see someone walking along and Whoosh! , their feet fly out from under them and they are flat on their back. Invisible Ice. Well on occasion, I've seen something similar occur in the markets. You're going along and all things look solid and safe when suddenly...Whoosh! things slip away. I want to mention this now and first off, so that THAT image sticks in your mind when I cover the weekdend report.
Our recent consolidation that was looking a little Bearish in many ways (as shown in prior reports) Got Draghi juice and suddenly looks a little more normal. This is the SOX index on Friday
Does that mean we'll break out in Bullish fashion soon? ...
Look At Those Socks!
I have to be honest, I was recently looking at the markets and thinking that the apparent weakness was going to prevail. Recently I've been staring at the SOX and something is starting to pop out at me. let me explain...
I had mentioned to my readers back in DEC that I thought I saw internal weakness in the markets. As the markets began to weakly bounce & Roll over, I then posted this chart JAN 6 and mentioned that though I expect a bounce here, I thought we may 'fail " at the 50sma. BUY THE DIPS might not work, and possibly a short set up .
By Jan 21 the weak bounce had played out, I began to think we may get a good shorting opportunity, but wait for that ECB mtg.
But then I saw those SOCKS! No, not the multi colored array of Socks above, I mean ...
Pass The Draghi Juice Please
Did you see the $USD? Did you see the QQQ's? Did you see $Gold? Looks like "Happy days are here again" ? Well the markets certainly did react strongly after the ECB announcement, but will it last? Can it last? It really raised more questions than it answered, so lets look at some charts.
SPY - Which was struggling below the 50 sma got a bit of a boost yesterday
In some ways , the 3 Q's looked even a bit better...
