Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

  If you were recently stopped out of TQQQ or UPRO,  would you really want to start a new 'long' or 'short' position on a Friday going into the weekend, with the NASDAQ on day 25 of its daily cycle?"   Probably not, today is the last trading day of the week.   Let's take a look at the QQQ, for those already positioned however.

QQQ -  Again the Q's closed under the 10 sma and as it gets later in the daily cycle, the more it may not have enough buyers to push it to new highs. Even if it did, it might be a short lived push higher.

Earlier in the week I pictured the QQQs  just dropping and tagging the 50sma, and I wasn't encouraging jumping back in, for fear of getting stopped out again.

So far this is playing out, but I wanted to mention something else...

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There is an old saying that says, "Never short a dull market."   Why?  Professional traders know that under the right conditions, a quiet or dull markets can suddenly break out into a strong move higher.  I am going to discuss this a little later in the report, but right now, let's visit a couple of sectors that have been a bit more active.

The DJIA is at new all time highs.  The SPX is still near the recent highs, but let's look at the Nasdaq & Transports...

QQQ-   So this could be a bear flag, and we see that the NASDAQ cannot rise & close above the 10sma yet, even though the DOW is at all time highs.  I would remain 'cautious' or alert  until it does.  This looks like it may want to drop down to the 50sma.  Would this dip  just be a 1/2 cycle low?  Possibly, but it will need monitoring if it does drop further. APPL Earnings were bullish and AAPL is set to open at new all time highs, and this may help the NASDAQ.

TRANSPORTS -  I pointed out that we didn't really even get a bounce in the transports, so I wondered if this was a warning sign.  We got a drop, multi day pause, drop,  multi day pause so far. Looking at the IYT now, I see a possible 5 wave move to the 200sma, and it is approaching oversold.

The Transports obviously broke down here,  but at least a bounce to back test that 50sma is likely.

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With all of the detailed daily reports pointing out just about everything there is to look for, I like the weekend report to usually just be more of a big picture look at what happened over the past week and what we can expect going forward.  Well, there is just too much that stands out to me at this time, so I will cover the bigger picture and some of the smaller details too.

SPX - I understand the "buy the dips' Theme in a bull market, but is every dip being bought profitable or easy to buy & hold? This week we saw a market slam down on Thursday, and Friday had a small reversal.  Was that 'Buy the dip" on Friday? Notice June 12th.

The timing on June 12th for that slam was also similar to this past weeks slam, and price went sideways to lower for 4 weeks into a dcl. ( Each 5 candles is a week of trading). Buying that dip made no money for  weeks actually.

SO NOW LET'S CHECK OUT THE NASDAQ ...

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We did see a Bullish reaction in Gold immediately following the Fed decision, so let's take a look at a few charts...

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We have an FOMC Meeting this Wednesday, and the weekend report covered a lot of the general markets and various sectors expectations.  With that in mind, we will review a few of the things that took place on Monday, and then I will point out a few more stock picks...

WTIC JULY 21 - From the weekend report I pointed out that Wednesday with the inventory report, Oil broke over the 50sma.  This was bullish, an then it plunged 2 days later back below the 50sma.  I said that  I will be watching for this trend line to support the drop, for it to remain bullish.

WTIC JULY 24 - Well how about that! Let's see if Oil can get back over that 50sma.

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