For Any Who Followed This Trade

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OCT 10    Midday  Sold Partial position in APT,  liberal stop set on the rest .

 

APT SELL today

 

   I dont usually post my “Sells” , I leave it to the reader to trade at their own risk / reward formula.  I just wanted to point out that THIS  is now extended 150% above the 50sma, since it went up over 100% in just this week.   It is possible that It may just go sideways for a while and allow moving averages to catch up  ( like VIMC did when I sold that), but taking some money off of the table is usually wise here.

Yes – VIMC has dropped & moved sideways to the 13 & the 20sma in the past couple of weeks, holding up well.  It is actually there now, so it’s even  a tad  higher now than where I sold it! Holding may have been ok for that one , but who can tell?  locking in at least partial profits is prudent when they get this overdone.   Look at DGLY  , for example.

ATTENTION ALL TRADERS

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OCT 10    

—Have you ever been skating on ice and suddenly you notice a big crack?  How about a HUGE CRACK? 

We may want to keep that  PANIC  BUTTON  handy.  THIS just raised its ugly head.

 

                                                                         CAUTION WARRANTED!

No – Not Yet

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Oct 10,2014     As I start writing before 7 a.m.,  Futures are down quite a bit     I Got a funny email, it said,  "With this sell off- When will you know that you're wrong?"  - LOL  Now I assume that the writer just worded that wrong and was really trying to say, "When would you know if this sell off was more than the normal correction that you expected?"  OR   Was that just a  Freudian slip  and the writer is telling me I AM wrong - when are you going to know that ?     Let me put it this way, I am watching closely and the CNBC TOPIC is "Is this more than a normal correction? Or Is this going to be a Panic Sell off? When everyone expects it before it happens, and FEAR is everywhere, they are usually wrong.  The best way to follow it is....TO THE CHARTS!! QQQ still looks strong. This is NOT a chart of Weakness (So Far)   QQQ Sell Off   Despite the cries of things getting scary - The QQQ on this next chart looks like every other correction before a strong rally   Read More

WELCOME BACK!

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Oct 9, 2014     WELL!!!   I thought that I should offer up an idea or two intraday since the color RED is the color of the day . I do NOT want to become a  'BUY & HOLD' or 'WISH & HOPE' kind of trader...I look to see if I can see whats happening and when a trade starts to act in a way that I didnt expect, I have to try my best to numb the "EMOTIONS" and just look at the facts. So I snapped this PIC of an intraday chart ,  the sell off of GDX today.   Its NOT meant to be grasping at straws or "HOPING" I'm right...its just what is happening , What I see right now.   GDX 50 percent      As you can see, GDX and GDXJ have pulled back to very 'RED' for the day - But they are only about 1/2 way into that move off of Lows yesterday, almost a "Test" of the top of a cup.   Read More

NOT AGAIN?

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OCT 9, 2014     WAIT! Is the train leaving the station again?  Should I jump on - or - Is this quick reversal just a Fed induced pipe dream , only to suck in longs and pull the rug out from under them?  Those are good questions and who can know for sure? No one, really.  HOWEVER  if we look for "Clues" - maybe it can shed light on the matter. I am going to continue on the theme that I started in the report  entitled " Its An Illusions"  (Click "illusions" to read it)   Illusions . In that report , I was discussing how it seems that while everyone is being encouraged to "Look at GOLD & SILVER" crashing, Some  Miners were holding up, apparently  being accumulated. I want to re-visit that idea here, since the selling has escalated since I wrote that on Sept 25th, 2 weeks ago. Have things changed much? Lets see....   GDX certainly has joined in the sell off type move. You can see it bleeding 5 weeks in a row here (This wkly chart was as of last week).   GDX WEEKLY   And look at this chart below!    Read More

“TIMING”!

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Oct 8, 2014     "Timing Is Everything"    - Have you ever heard that expression? Well today, Timing was both Good and Bad for me, but thankfully for me (and everyone else too)...there is always a little more time.   I was drawing up charts this morning for another  Bullish Report. This was how my day started and how Timing was both Good and Bad.  In this weekends report here at Chartfreak, I was writing about expecting a market reversal higher. SO MANY people were calling for a steep sell off. 'October Crash' I kept hearing and I wrote about the group think in the weekend report.  I heard that a 20% correction was coming on CNBC yesterday and I saw this sentiment reading below   (THANKS TO TICKER SENSE) as too bearish.  I just cant get comfortable following the crowd .     TICKER SENSE      And talk about BEARISH -  Metals & Miners were going to $800 to $1000 within a month.  I have been mentioning that I expect those MEANINGFUL Lows to come anytime now, and for several reasons.   Yes, Selling could continue later, but I feel that we are at an exhaustion point in both Cycle "Timing" and other areas.    But wait- What report? I didnt post a report this morning, did I? ...   Read More

WATCHLIST

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OCT 7, 2014    I thought I would just throw a couple of ideas out there, possibly  for your watchlist if you have one. In my last report I pointed out the set up in ZEN as looking like this (Chart below). Notice that, as an I.P.O. it experienced rapid buying and then just went sideways (no Sellers) consolidating those initial gains. Once you break above that area, another run up can take place, since no one is selling , everyone is along for the ride, and momentum buyers can jump in. I've seen this pattern a lot, and as long as a company is doing well, the results can be higher prices.   ZEN   With that in mind, take a look at this next chart...   Read More

GRACE UNDER PRESSURE

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OCT 5  weekend report      I love the way the above picture captures the theme of GRACE UNDER PRESSURE  ( Picture Credit to Rush & Hugh Syme).   Ermest Hemmingway wrote that "Courage is Grace under Pressure" and for the past few weeks, the markets began selling off,  thus pressuring  'buy & hold' investors.  Remaining Graceful while enduring the "Pressure' of the markets selling off allows one the "Courage" to make good decisions.  I feel that most readers here are that way.  For protection , We actually trade with stops in place  ( be it mental or a be it a hard stop),  looking  forward to pullbacks  in hopes of buying at 'discount prices'.   While I haven't see all out panic,I have seen CNBC  interviewing many lately asking,  "Is this it?  Have the Markets topped & is October going to be the month of a crash?"  The question is...."What were you doing?"    On Thursday , OCT 1 , I Tweeted this SPY CHART , pointing out OCT 2013 selling off to the 26 WMA (Red line) . Would we get that 193 area ?   SPY      We Did get that red line  (193) and it looks to have reversed.  Yay for the chart & reliability  of these markets so far.   SPY OCT 3   If you bought a nice set up in that reversal ,  you displayed Courage and  Grace under Pressure...   Read More

QUICK NOTE

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Oct 3, 2014    Just a quick note….It looks like its going to be a good day for traders.  Yesterdays late day reversal in the sell off of the markets has set up some very beautiful charts. Looking at the 50sma, many of the recent pullbacks landed and reversed there.  It was a time to start entering low risk positions.  For traders, the pullback and reversal in many of the high energy MOMO stocks is the place to be right now.

With the JOBS REPORT,  the dollar again took to the sky, and GOLD/ SILVER got slammed, is it just a final capitulation slam?  Volume in GDX  for the first hour is extremely high.    There is a lot of fear in the Metals market and cycle wise, we were due for a low, but  this selling was not exhausted yet.  I tried to take a few entries this week and go stopped out.  Still, this may be a final slam worth watching  , from the sidelines .

This quick note is just to say what I would look at if I was watching  Metals / Miners for the next trade.  I would look for :

–  For now GOLD /SILVER will open at new lows…Watch for Miners to slam down too , and then do they :

  1. recover?

      or

  2. close near the lows? 

BY the end of the day – we are watching THE CLOSE here.     If Metals  & Miners  close at or near the lows of the day….more downside likely.  The weekly charts will be ugly.  If they reverse higher, if they recover to break even for the day or green,  the weekly charts will still be  reversal candles.  It would show that they keep slamming it down and buyers are entering. It would shake out LONGS.

 

  Yesterday I was watching  many stocks that RAN UP FAST and have pulled back.  Here is just an example of a few , if you want to pull up some interesting charts are :

      RADA  (  LIZA mentioned this in the comments section yesterday)  it sat right down on the 10 sma with no selling volume yesterday ). I bought this one.

     I have also watched  COUP  double bottom for weeks, it is looking excellent. I bought this one .

     NETE was interesting after a deeper sell off than I expected. The volume is starting to come in this morning…It may or may not be quite ready yet  (its still below the 10 & 20 Sma and kind of basing sideways this week) Watch for a break above that 10sma?  

    OTIV – popping today, but the selling has been a slow steady bleeding. Doesnt look like a “real’ move yet.

     MBLY I mentioned in prior reports  and also RALY.…both acting as expected in that report.

     SCOK just popped back above the 10sma…I think it may be a buy now  or soon  (I would like to see it pop with more volume than today).

     CGA – No volume today and it got a little freaky the past few days, but the weekly chart is an excellent recovery.  ODD daily chart tho.

  I will get a  report out this weekend  to point out some nice set ups . After that multi day pullback to support,  its not too late.  Often stocks that take off in the morning slightly sag during lunch, then they get bought up in the final hr and close at the highs….so Mid Day may offer an entry too?    In fact –  I may add  to RADA,  and COUP later this morning.  They are pulling back intra-day now. 

Best wishes!

 

~Alex

 

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MARIO SPEAKS TODAY

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Thursday  Oct 2 ,  2014       Mario Draghi is speaking today , and likely it will affect the markets. We have JOBS Report Friday too, so the next few days can affect, even change the markets. The charts are very extended in some areas and almost calling for a little change. Nothing is certain, but lets look at some charts and see if there are clues what kind of changes could take place. We can start with something that certainly could be moved by Mario...   The Euro -  $XEU is due for AT LEAST a bounce and may have completed 5 waves for the Elliott Wave fans   $XEU   The opposite of the $XEU is the $USD.  Is that over-extended to the upside? ...   Read More