NOT AGAIN?
OCT 9, 2014
WAIT! Is the train leaving the station again? Should I jump on – or – Is this quick reversal just a Fed induced pipe dream , only to suck in longs and pull the rug out from under them? Those are good questions and who can know for sure? No one, really. HOWEVER if we look for “Clues” – maybe it can shed light on the matter. I am going to continue on the theme that I started in the report entitled ” Its An Illusions” (Click “illusions” to read it) Illusions .
In that report , I was discussing how it seems that while everyone is being encouraged to “Look at GOLD & SILVER” crashing, Some Miners were holding up, apparently being accumulated. I want to re-visit that idea here, since the selling has escalated since I wrote that on Sept 25th, 2 weeks ago. Have things changed much? Lets see….
GDX certainly has joined in the sell off type move. You can see it bleeding 5 weeks in a row here
(This wkly chart was as of last week).
And look at this chart below!
$SILVER has broken down below recent “Lows”. Yes, many began calling for a cascade to $10 -$13. Now IF we bounce, likely they think that a “Test” of the breakdown is all we’ll get and they will “GO SHORT” there. They could be correct. The stage seems set for MAX PAIN to the downside !
WATCH for that SILVER TEST. IF everyone “Shorts” Silver there, and it breaks upward, the short covering rally could be huge.
SO…Again I look at SILVER MINERS and I recall that Whenever GOLD or SILVER would sell down A LITTLE – Miners would fall off a cliff!
Silver would be down from $25.40 to $25.20 and Silver stocks would be down 13%!!
Now with SILVER breaking to 4 yr lows and shouts of $13 Silver by year end…I see this???
MVG
EXK
FSM ran from $3.50 to $6.25 last May and just put in a strong reversal here, holding those May lows with SILVER broken down?
And are any GOLD STOCKS still holding up ok? Many are… look at the 3 “R”‘s – RICK, RBY, RGLD
Yes, its a little scary reading all these doom and Gloom warnings of GOLD $1000 and SILVER $10 , but I cant wrap my head around what I am seeing.
I guess the real question is…WHAT ARE YOU SEEING?
I loved that many didnt believe that the reversal and recovery yesterday meant anything. I loved this guys response – he made me laugh and I get what he is saying. ( I removed his name because I am NOT making fun of him. He posted this publicly, so I am just sharing it and ‘I think I get where he is coming from’).
He’s thinking, “yeah, get all excited about it…I’ve seen this trick before”. THAT is what I want to see at lows.
So picture this, BIG VOLUME REVERSAL at FED MINUTES and everyone is talking about it at 11:30 at night
and this guy posts….
You dont want everyone to BUY it now , huge gap up after gap up…you want nervousness , and caution.
THOSE are your buyers later, after some proof is evident to them.
SO The $USD has been KING as of late. THAT was a STRONG MOVE, and it very well may not be done yet. It has broken out above a couple of resistance lines (Click chart to open) , but even if it just pauses and goes sideways ( IT reversed hard on the FED Too)…It could look like this and allow commodities to rally. As always, we’re not trying to tell the market what to do, we’re trying to see what it is telling us it may want to do. TIME WILL TELL.
And speaking of BEATEN DOWN. Ever heard of that dark clunky matter that used to power trains in the old days? Well, Its called COAL and it has been deemed worthless lately.
Yesterday, they looked rather interesting too. EX: ACI ( but also see ANR, WLT, BTU, or ETF KOL)
And did IWM RUT QQQ SPY just say something?
In conclusion: It looks to me like there will be some good trading opportunities for us in the next few weeks!I dont care if GOLD pulls back today – its HOW it pulls back if it does. Pullbacks here and there keep the gaps to a minimum 
Thanks for reading along and thanks for the comments & feedback in last nights report. Best wishes for a few good trades!
~ALEX
Great post Alex. Thanks for all your hard work and terrific insights!
Hey Hamvestor – Nice to hear from you again. Hope all is well, and thx!
Great post Alex. Thanks for all your hard work and terrific insights!
Hey Hamvestor – Nice to hear from you again. Hope all is well, and thx!
Great post Alex…thanks for the hardwork.!
As you know I have been looking at the coal stocks and most had 100 % bearish sentiment this week on stockwits community.
Yeah, I was watching WLT , ACI, and ANR and I was afraid to step in. Usually I am eager to buy that set up…so is that a low? LOL
They finally look like they may be ready for some upside action : )
Great post Alex…thanks for the hardwork.!
As you know I have been looking at the coal stocks and most had 100 % bearish sentiment this week on stockwits community.
Yeah, I was watching WLT , ACI, and ANR and I was afraid to step in. Usually I am eager to buy that set up…so is that a low? LOL
They finally look like they may be ready for some upside action : )
Nice read, thanks
Thx to you too Bjowe, nice to see you again
Nice read, thanks
Thx to you too Bjowe, nice to see you again
Alex, thanks fo sharing – definitely not the action I was expecting in the market today – thought positive momentum would stay – at least with S&P and RUT. It looks to me like miners over-reacted to the upside yesterday and back to the downside today. I couldn’t stay away, grabbed some NUGT for rebound tomorrow. Just one day, I need to see more follow through before I’m ready for a swing.
Yes, I agree…its tough to tell EXACTLY what’ll happen here, but one good thing is a GAP UP tomorrow wouldnt really need to fill : ) 1st time i ever hoped for a gap up at the open
Alex, thanks fo sharing – definitely not the action I was expecting in the market today – thought positive momentum would stay – at least with S&P and RUT. It looks to me like miners over-reacted to the upside yesterday and back to the downside today. I couldn’t stay away, grabbed some NUGT for rebound tomorrow. Just one day, I need to see more follow through before I’m ready for a swing.
Yes, I agree…its tough to tell EXACTLY what’ll happen here, but one good thing is a GAP UP tomorrow wouldnt really need to fill : ) 1st time i ever hoped for a gap up at the open