ATTENTION ALL TRADERS
OCT 10
—Have you ever been skating on ice and suddenly you notice a big crack? How about a HUGE CRACK?
We may want to keep that PANIC BUTTON handy. THIS just raised its ugly head.
CAUTION WARRANTED!
No – Not Yet
Oct 10,2014 As I start writing before 7 a.m., Futures are down quite a bit
I Got a funny email, it said, "With this sell off- When will you know that you're wrong?" - LOL Now I assume that the writer just worded that wrong and was really trying to say, "When would you know if this sell off was more than the normal correction that you expected?" OR Was that just a Freudian slip and the writer is telling me I AM wrong - when are you going to know that ? 
Let me put it this way, I am watching closely and the CNBC TOPIC is "Is this more than a normal correction? Or Is this going to be a Panic Sell off?
When everyone expects it before it happens, and FEAR is everywhere, they are usually wrong. The best way to follow it is....TO THE CHARTS!!
QQQ still looks strong. This is NOT a chart of Weakness (So Far)
Despite the cries of things getting scary - The QQQ on this next chart looks like every other correction before a strong rally
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Let me put it this way, I am watching closely and the CNBC TOPIC is "Is this more than a normal correction? Or Is this going to be a Panic Sell off?
When everyone expects it before it happens, and FEAR is everywhere, they are usually wrong. The best way to follow it is....TO THE CHARTS!!
QQQ still looks strong. This is NOT a chart of Weakness (So Far)
Despite the cries of things getting scary - The QQQ on this next chart looks like every other correction before a strong rally
Read MoreWELCOME BACK!
Oct 9, 2014
WELL!!! I thought that I should offer up an idea or two intraday since the color RED is the color of the day . I do NOT want to become a 'BUY & HOLD' or 'WISH & HOPE' kind of trader...I look to see if I can see whats happening and when a trade starts to act in a way that I didnt expect, I have to try my best to numb the "EMOTIONS" and just look at the facts. So I snapped this PIC of an intraday chart , the sell off of GDX today.
Its NOT meant to be grasping at straws or "HOPING" I'm right...its just what is happening , What I see right now.
As you can see, GDX and GDXJ have pulled back to very 'RED' for the day
- But they are only about 1/2 way into that move off of Lows yesterday, almost a "Test" of the top of a cup.
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As you can see, GDX and GDXJ have pulled back to very 'RED' for the day
- But they are only about 1/2 way into that move off of Lows yesterday, almost a "Test" of the top of a cup.
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NOT AGAIN?
OCT 9, 2014
WAIT! Is the train leaving the station again? Should I jump on - or - Is this quick reversal just a Fed induced pipe dream , only to suck in longs and pull the rug out from under them? Those are good questions and who can know for sure? No one, really. HOWEVER if we look for "Clues" - maybe it can shed light on the matter. I am going to continue on the theme that I started in the report entitled " Its An Illusions" (Click "illusions" to read it) Illusions .
In that report , I was discussing how it seems that while everyone is being encouraged to "Look at GOLD & SILVER" crashing, Some Miners were holding up, apparently being accumulated. I want to re-visit that idea here, since the selling has escalated since I wrote that on Sept 25th, 2 weeks ago. Have things changed much? Lets see....
GDX certainly has joined in the sell off type move. You can see it bleeding 5 weeks in a row here
(This wkly chart was as of last week).
And look at this chart below!
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And look at this chart below!
Read More“TIMING”!
Oct 8, 2014 "Timing Is Everything"
- Have you ever heard that expression? Well today, Timing was both Good and Bad for me, but thankfully for me (and everyone else too)...there is always a little more time. I was drawing up charts this morning for another Bullish Report. This was how my day started and how Timing was both Good and Bad. In this weekends report here at Chartfreak, I was writing about expecting a market reversal higher. SO MANY people were calling for a steep sell off. 'October Crash' I kept hearing and I wrote about the group think in the weekend report. I heard that a 20% correction was coming on CNBC yesterday and I saw this sentiment reading below (THANKS TO TICKER SENSE) as too bearish. I just cant get comfortable following the crowd .
And talk about BEARISH - Metals & Miners were going to $800 to $1000 within a month. I have been mentioning that I expect those MEANINGFUL Lows to come anytime now, and for several reasons. Yes, Selling could continue later, but I feel that we are at an exhaustion point in both Cycle "Timing" and other areas. But wait- What report? I didnt post a report this morning, did I? ...
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And talk about BEARISH - Metals & Miners were going to $800 to $1000 within a month. I have been mentioning that I expect those MEANINGFUL Lows to come anytime now, and for several reasons. Yes, Selling could continue later, but I feel that we are at an exhaustion point in both Cycle "Timing" and other areas. But wait- What report? I didnt post a report this morning, did I? ...
Read MoreWATCHLIST
OCT 7, 2014
I thought I would just throw a couple of ideas out there, possibly for your watchlist if you have one. In my last report I pointed out the set up in ZEN as looking like this (Chart below). Notice that, as an I.P.O. it experienced rapid buying and then just went sideways (no Sellers) consolidating those initial gains. Once you break above that area, another run up can take place, since no one is selling , everyone is along for the ride, and momentum buyers can jump in. I've seen this pattern a lot, and as long as a company is doing well, the results can be higher prices.
With that in mind, take a look at this next chart...
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With that in mind, take a look at this next chart...
Read MoreGRACE UNDER PRESSURE
OCT 5 weekend report
I love the way the above picture captures the theme of GRACE UNDER PRESSURE ( Picture Credit to Rush & Hugh Syme).
Ermest Hemmingway wrote that "Courage is Grace under Pressure" and for the past few weeks, the markets began selling off, thus pressuring 'buy & hold' investors. Remaining Graceful while enduring the "Pressure' of the markets selling off allows one the "Courage" to make good decisions. I feel that most readers here are that way. For protection , We actually trade with stops in place ( be it mental or a be it a hard stop), looking forward to pullbacks in hopes of buying at 'discount prices'. While I haven't see all out panic,I have seen CNBC interviewing many lately asking, "Is this it? Have the Markets topped & is October going to be the month of a crash?"
The question is...."What were you doing?"
On Thursday , OCT 1 , I Tweeted this SPY CHART , pointing out OCT 2013 selling off to the 26 WMA (Red line) . Would we get that 193 area ?
We Did get that red line (193) and it looks to have reversed. Yay for the chart & reliability of these markets so far.
If you bought a nice set up in that reversal , you displayed Courage and Grace under Pressure...
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We Did get that red line (193) and it looks to have reversed. Yay for the chart & reliability of these markets so far.
If you bought a nice set up in that reversal , you displayed Courage and Grace under Pressure...
Read MoreQUICK NOTE
Oct 3, 2014 Just a quick note….It looks like its going to be a good day for traders. Yesterdays late day reversal in the sell off of the markets has set up some very beautiful charts. Looking at the 50sma, many of the recent pullbacks landed and reversed there. It was a time to start entering low risk positions. For traders, the pullback and reversal in many of the high energy MOMO stocks is the place to be right now.
With the JOBS REPORT, the dollar again took to the sky, and GOLD/ SILVER got slammed, is it just a final capitulation slam? Volume in GDX for the first hour is extremely high. There is a lot of fear in the Metals market and cycle wise, we were due for a low, but this selling was not exhausted yet. I tried to take a few entries this week and go stopped out. Still, this may be a final slam worth watching , from the sidelines .
This quick note is just to say what I would look at if I was watching Metals / Miners for the next trade. I would look for :
– For now GOLD /SILVER will open at new lows…Watch for Miners to slam down too , and then do they :
1. recover?
or
2. close near the lows?
BY the end of the day – we are watching THE CLOSE here. If Metals & Miners close at or near the lows of the day….more downside likely. The weekly charts will be ugly. If they reverse higher, if they recover to break even for the day or green, the weekly charts will still be reversal candles. It would show that they keep slamming it down and buyers are entering. It would shake out LONGS.
Yesterday I was watching many stocks that RAN UP FAST and have pulled back. Here is just an example of a few , if you want to pull up some interesting charts are :
RADA ( LIZA mentioned this in the comments section yesterday) it sat right down on the 10 sma with no selling volume yesterday ). I bought this one.
I have also watched COUP double bottom for weeks, it is looking excellent. I bought this one .
NETE was interesting after a deeper sell off than I expected. The volume is starting to come in this morning…It may or may not be quite ready yet (its still below the 10 & 20 Sma and kind of basing sideways this week) Watch for a break above that 10sma?
OTIV – popping today, but the selling has been a slow steady bleeding. Doesnt look like a “real’ move yet.
MBLY I mentioned in prior reports and also RALY.…both acting as expected in that report.
SCOK just popped back above the 10sma…I think it may be a buy now or soon (I would like to see it pop with more volume than today).
CGA – No volume today and it got a little freaky the past few days, but the weekly chart is an excellent recovery. ODD daily chart tho.
I will get a report out this weekend to point out some nice set ups . After that multi day pullback to support, its not too late. Often stocks that take off in the morning slightly sag during lunch, then they get bought up in the final hr and close at the highs….so Mid Day may offer an entry too? In fact – I may add to RADA, and COUP later this morning. They are pulling back intra-day now.
Best wishes!
~Alex
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MARIO SPEAKS TODAY
Thursday Oct 2 , 2014 Mario Draghi is speaking today , and likely it will affect the markets. We have JOBS Report Friday too, so the next few days can affect, even change the markets. The charts are very extended in some areas and almost calling for a little change. Nothing is certain, but lets look at some charts and see if there are clues what kind of changes could take place. We can start with something that certainly could be moved by Mario...
The Euro - $XEU is due for AT LEAST a bounce and may have completed 5 waves for the Elliott Wave fans
The opposite of the $XEU is the $USD. Is that over-extended to the upside? ...
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The opposite of the $XEU is the $USD. Is that over-extended to the upside? ...
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What Are You Looking At?
OCT 1, 2014 What am I looking at? When we have a sell off in Markets or even individual stocks, I am always looking at my list. I want to see if anything I wanted to buy but missed (or owned & sold) is possibly "Setting up" as another buying opportunity. I AM REALLY liking the setting up of some Miners , but for this report, I just want to show some stocks that look interesting and I'll also include one of the GDX . Its the start of a new Month, Its the start of a new Quarter. Funds may do some shopping pretty soon to attempt 4th quarter bragging rights ( And thus a 4th Quarter rally?). Today , these are JUST A FEW of the stocks I was looking at.
GDX - It may have a DEC 2013 type low forming? Or it MAY have a 5th wave to go...But seriously I have a FEW indicators & sentiment calling for an ICL sooner than later.
Going back to my recent Gold report here http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/09/26/illusion/
and look at many of those MINERS that I said were acting rather special in this beat down. READ That report---look at what I said about FSM, RBY, RIC, etc .
NOTHING HAS CHANGED 
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Going back to my recent Gold report here http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/09/26/illusion/
and look at many of those MINERS that I said were acting rather special in this beat down. READ That report---look at what I said about FSM, RBY, RIC, etc .
NOTHING HAS CHANGED
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