UPDATE: Are We Still On Track?

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July 20  -   Please read my last report and you'll see how I was viewing things for the Metals and Miners market.  Then the next question is :   "Well, that report was July 17 and things got a little "whippy" since then,  are we still on track?"    The short answer is,  "Yes, so far it was a little whippy, but we are still on track."   As a review, I was expecting Metals and Miners to begin a 2nd leg higher, similar to what we saw at the June 2013 lows ( 2 legs up) and Dec 2013 lows. Using the GDX and the December 2013 run up -  I used this chart (Below) to help us visualize what the move could look like.  Now I want to just do a quick update .   PICTURE GDX LIKE THIS      Look again at my last report and I said that  If the Miners gap down Friday, you may want to add a position in one of your favorite miners, because they may reverse & start upward.  Well, Friday the miners DID gap down and stayed down almost all day, finally beginning to recover into the close with a reversal.   That was  (To me)  important because... Read More

Looking For Follow Through

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July 17    Yes, I am looking for follow through, but it may NOT be immediate.  IN my last report I showed how GDX had a HUGE     Buy On Weakness (B.O.W.) number - That big of a number usually shows the 'sell off' could turn up shortly.  It is Not a perfect timing tool, but those HUGE numbers usually indicate a change could happen shortly.   Well, Today Gold / Miners  did what I was again looking for (See last report),  but GDX also had a Large  Sell On Strength ( S.O.S.) Number today.  I'm thinking that  We may dip into OPEX tomorrow, so I'll be watching how that  possible dip "looks", and see if we DO get some follow through later that day or Next week.   Lets review some charts...  First- I Mentioned that I think some people think that these 2 "PEAKS" are similar & thus a strong sell off was expected.    Note the Triangle, POP & DROP.   GDX CONTRARIAN JULY 15   I want to point out the difference between  "Peaks" 1 & 2,  which is why I am expecting a run Higher & not a similar sell off.  Notice what I am seeing "time-wise on the following chart ....   Read More

Break Down Again or Shake Out?

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July 16, 2014      ARE WE SEEING A POSSIBLE SHAKE OUT FORMING & NOT THE START OF ANOTHER DEEP SELL OFF?  I am not a perma bull, so when market conditions change, one definitely needs to be able to react quickly, honor stops, and make the necessary adjustments  to save capital.  One thing that I do NOT advocate however, is flip long, then short , then long, then short whenever the markets change directions.  Some may do that successfully but most do not.  I have done that in the past  and have found that making money that way (Esp in whip-saw type conditions) is not easy.  Fear of "Missing the Move" can cause one to jump in & out like that, but In fact, It actually can rob you of good money in "whippy" markets - ESPECIALLY LEVERAGED POSITIONS. One doesnt ALWAYS need to be "In" and I have found that the best thing (For me) to do is examine possibilities and then watch for a trade-able trend to develop. With that in mind, lets examine the whippy Metals & Miners here- THIS is GOLD   GOLD july 15 bullhorn A bounce would be nice, because there are technical reasons to not like what we see if we are Bullish... Read More