Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Just A Short Review

August 5, 2014 /18 Comments/in , /by

AUG 5  12 Eastern time -     I just wanted to quickly review my expectations. Things look normal in the Metals and Miners at first glance, but are they really just Normal? Or are there other things to consider?  I'll show you what I expect short term, but I am also seeing something else in the bigger picture.   To the charts!

 

GLD  looks like a normal re-trace & Gap fill.

 

GLD AUG 5

 

As mentioned in Yesterdays report - With the descending wedge and oversold conditions, I would expect a break higher soon.

What about Silver?  It looks like its selling off harder than Gold today, so Lets look at a few more charts ...

 

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The Good News First

August 4, 2014 /4 Comments/in , /by

August 4 2014 -   Well, after looking at the weekly charts of Metals, Miners and the $USD...I would say that the Good News is that we can expect a Bounce In $Gold & Miners short term,  but does that mean there's Bad News Too?   To the Charts!

 

The $USD has had a nice run, it is a bit extended now.  

Using both daily cycles timing and Tech Analysis, I think it is due for a rest.

 

$USD AND GOLD 2You can also see from that chart above in the middle column that a wedge has formed in Gold...so what does this indicate?

 

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MIXED SIGNALS

August 1, 2014 /38 Comments/in , /by

AUG 1 2014 -  First off , There has been a lot going daily this week in my personal life, my friends son was in a severe accident and a few other things have kept me busy, so I have not been in front of the screen as much as usual this week.   That said,  I haven't Tweeted & Posted as often as usual so I wanted to  Quickly just throw out some brief Charts & Thoughts  since it got a little CRAZY after the Fed Mtg.

 

SPX - It was DUE for a pullback using cycles and Technical analysis, but you can never tell how much or how fast.  This COULD get serious - but as I mentioned, there were signs that it was coming.  The VIX, $CPCE, Internals , and of course PRICE PATTERNS  showed we were due.  See the daily & weekly below.

 

SPX WEELY - Overbought RSI WEEKLY & it hit the Top of the channel

$SPX weekly

 

The SPX DAILY also showed that it was ready for a pullback (Note the Rising Wedge - MACD , RSI, and Orange arrow) ...

 

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Its a Tiny Bit of a Bull here

July 26, 2014 /6 Comments/in , /by

July 26  Weekend thoughts     Well, after the final day of the week, I would say that the reversal in the Metals Mkts Friday  into the close grew a tiny bit more like a Bull.   A baby bull.  It APPEARS to be a bullish reversal, but there are still some cautionary notes and things to watch for....lets have a look.

 

GOLD -  At this point it looks like it is playing out exactly as I mentioned in my last 3 write ups.  A Bullhorn formed, a run of the stops below $1292, bounced off of the 200sma...a reversal.

 

GOLD July 25 bullhorn

 

Perfect right?  Well...caution remains because there are other factors to consider...

 

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This Bounce Bears Watching

July 25, 2014 /20 Comments/in , /by

July 25 -   As I write pre-Mkt, a bounce is unfolding.  Many people feel that they always need to be "In the trade". Sometimes during the strugglesome periods and possible turning points, its best to either hedge positions or just step back and watch how it plays out. If you follow my series of posts on this web site, I was BULLISH Metals & Miners at the end of May.  I caught the lows.  I was Bullish through June and into July, but recently things have changed a bit- with a "Shake out".   Review my posts -  you'll see that I started warning of weakness,   but still a bullish recovery possible.  Then it went to a baby bear. Then a battle of Bull vs Bear is becoming more evident. Now?  I expect a bounce....but this bounce could just be the Bear playing around or is the Bull going to take over?  QUICK review -To the Charts...

 

July 15-   I pointed out the steep sell off in Gold needed to bounce, was that a Bullhorn forming? -

 

GOLD july 15 bullhorn

GOLD - is this still just a Bullhorn ? Notice Gold bounced off of the 200sma, closed above the 50sma. Now a bounce?

 

GOLD BULLHORN

 

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Pre-Mkt sell off in GOLD – Still just a battle of the Bulls & the Bears

July 24, 2014 /14 Comments/in , /by

JULY 24 -  Pre mkt    

I spent some time yesterday researching, since we are at a point where some people are ready to throw in the towel in GOLD , others arent.

Some are saying that "GOLD is weak here (And miners) and if this were a 2nd daily cycle...it should have blasted off by now. It has no follow through & is too weak."   Others even think  (And it could be)  that "Maybe a 2nd DCycle may not have started yet...maybe we are still in an extended 1st DCycle?"  I began to wonder myself too.  Since We have no overhead trend line break, it IS a possibility that we are still in the 1st DCycle , even  if they "Run the stops " here in GOLD and it dips below $1292. It could recover.  We are selling off pre-mkt,  as mntioned yesterday, there are signs of weakness, however,  I am not THAT concerned yet.   

$GOLD - So Lets look at some charts-

 

$GOLD JULY 24

 

GOLD  - is  selling off in pre mkt , but this chart shows that its not that bad. Its still a normal pullback using Technical Analysis, so we'll keep our eyes on things.

 

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Just a little Bear(Ish)

July 23, 2014 /10 Comments/in , /by

July 22, 2013     I didnt want to scare anyone, so I decided to just show a playful little bear to make my next point, instead of a Full Blown Bear.  If you've been following my thinking, you know that I expected another Leg higher. Using cycles for timing, it should've popped higher or at least should  POP really soon. If not  -  this second leg up may just fail.  So why the little bearishness?  Well, as time goes on and the consolidation continues, we are losing the "strength" that was adding confidence. Notice the following charts...

 

GOLD is weakening & looks actually tired

 

GOLD TIRED

I want to see GOLD get above those 2 moving averages overhead & not struggle so much.

What about the Miners?

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UPDATE: Are We Still On Track?

July 20, 2014 /2 Comments/in , /by

July 20  -   Please read my last report and you'll see how I was viewing things for the Metals and Miners market.  Then the next question is :   "Well, that report was July 17 and things got a little "whippy" since then,  are we still on track?"    The short answer is,  "Yes, so far it was a little whippy, but we are still on track."   As a review, I was expecting Metals and Miners to begin a 2nd leg higher, similar to what we saw at the June 2013 lows ( 2 legs up) and Dec 2013 lows. Using the GDX and the December 2013 run up -  I used this chart (Below) to help us visualize what the move could look like.  Now I want to just do a quick update .

 

PICTURE GDX LIKE THIS

 

   Look again at my last report and I said that  If the Miners gap down Friday, you may want to add a position in one of your favorite miners, because they may reverse & start upward.  Well, Friday the miners DID gap down and stayed down almost all day, finally beginning to recover into the close with a reversal.   That was  (To me)  important because...

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Looking For Follow Through

July 18, 2014 /4 Comments/in , /by

July 17    Yes, I am looking for follow through, but it may NOT be immediate.  IN my last report I showed how GDX had a HUGE     Buy On Weakness (B.O.W.) number - That big of a number usually shows the 'sell off' could turn up shortly.  It is Not a perfect timing tool, but those HUGE numbers usually indicate a change could happen shortly.   Well, Today Gold / Miners  did what I was again looking for (See last report),  but GDX also had a Large  Sell On Strength ( S.O.S.) Number today.  I'm thinking that  We may dip into OPEX tomorrow, so I'll be watching how that  possible dip "looks", and see if we DO get some follow through later that day or Next week.

 

Lets review some charts...  First- I Mentioned that I think some people think that these 2 "PEAKS" are similar & thus a strong sell off was expected.    Note the Triangle, POP & DROP.

 

GDX CONTRARIAN JULY 15

 

I want to point out the difference between  "Peaks" 1 & 2,  which is why I am expecting a run Higher & not a similar sell off.  Notice what I am seeing "time-wise on the following chart ....

 

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Break Down Again or Shake Out?

July 16, 2014 /8 Comments/in , /by

July 16, 2014      ARE WE SEEING A POSSIBLE SHAKE OUT FORMING & NOT THE START OF ANOTHER DEEP SELL OFF?  I am not a perma bull, so when market conditions change, one definitely needs to be able to react quickly, honor stops, and make the necessary adjustments  to save capital.  One thing that I do NOT advocate however, is flip long, then short , then long, then short whenever the markets change directions.  Some may do that successfully but most do not.  I have done that in the past  and have found that making money that way (Esp in whip-saw type conditions) is not easy.  Fear of "Missing the Move" can cause one to jump in & out like that, but In fact, It actually can rob you of good money in "whippy" markets - ESPECIALLY LEVERAGED POSITIONS. One doesnt ALWAYS need to be "In" and I have found that the best thing (For me) to do is examine possibilities and then watch for a trade-able trend to develop. With that in mind, lets examine the whippy Metals & Miners here-

THIS is GOLD

 

GOLD july 15 bullhorn

A bounce would be nice, because there are technical reasons to not like what we see if we are Bullish...

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