Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak
Entries by Alex - Chart Freak
WKEND REPORT – brEXIT STAGE LEFT
The Fed Decision is behind us and just when we thought that maybe we could enjoy a week free from extreme volatility, we have BREXIT this week. The vote regarding the European Union is on Thursday, and that could give us another week of volatility. That said, by using Cycle analysis and Technical analysis, we have been expecting a certain outcome and things do seem to be lining up as anticipated. Lets do a review.
.
SPX- We may have seen a 1/2 cycle low. This would lean more to the bullish side indicating that the current consolidation is building steam to attempt a break out. This looks like a 'W' pattern with a handle.
The W-Pattern is a bullish pattern mentioned in William O'Neil's Books. This one ran to $800, and is currently at $1800.
That is not the only Bullish chart on our Brexit Week, there are more ...
Public Report – The Uphill Climb
The Uphill Climb
When a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb is always easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness, even drop back and pursue a different path to the top. I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. (Long term they remain bullish in my opinion),
WTIC - This was June 14 and we were on day 50 of a Cycle, so it was already late in crude oil's daily cycle and I was expecting a low soon.
Not Always An Easy Climb
When a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb may be easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness, even drop back and pursue a different path to the top. I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. They remains bullish long term in my opinion. We will discuss that briefly, but first...
.
SPX - SPX put in a reversal on Thursday just as it started to lose the 50sma. We'll see if there is any follow through to its recovery today.
Our Hands Are Tied
.
That's what I heard from the Fed.
.
SPX - This needs to move higher soon. It is starting to show internal signs of weakness, even though it doesn't look like much of a pullback. The VIX looks like a bull flag may be forming.
June 15 – Relax, It’s A Fed Wednesday
This was my thinking from yesterdays report...
This is how Tuesday ended. We lost and regained the 50sma and today is Fed Wednesday. Will the 50sma hold or will this drop to the 200sma? Lets look at 2 more things.
Pre-Fed Syndrome Again
Monday we saw a little more selling in the general markets as we approach the Fed meeting Wednesday. I have been bullish for a possible break out to new highs, but recent action is less bullish and it may be that we wont know for sure until after Fed Wednesday. Tuesday may also be a little bit boring ahead of the Fed.
.
The SPX - This looks a bit better than the DOW, NASDAQ, And BKX at a glance, but notice that it looks to be dipping into a daily cycle low. MAYBE the Fed Wed decision will hold it at the 50sma and set a new trend line, but right now, this warrants caution.
The NASDAQ is a tad weaker
June 11th Weekend Report
After we review the general markets, Oil, the CRB, etc, this weekend report will focus mainly on Gold, Silver, and Miners. To the charts...
.
SPX - This is a Fed Week, so I am watching the markets very closely at this critical area. This is rather early in the daily cycle, and if this is "the Peak', it will likely be left translated. We saw a slight break to new highs and then it gave them up. On day 15, I'll we watching this closely going into the Fed mtg.
Read More
Precious Metals Primer – A peek into the next phase
Precious Metals
You may have heard that you should not buy precious metals miners until after a ‘blood bath phase’. I mentioned within my (premium May 18) report that I have received emails telling me that warnings are out that the next Intermediate Term Cycle Low (ICL – A cycle low that occur every 5-6 months) will not come until we first see a huge sell off within precious metals. Many think that it will instead occur around the Brexit vote (June 23rd).
Today, I would like to share with you just a brief excerpt on what I’m looking at here within the precious metals sector. And within my coming weekend member report, I will be going into much more detail on what one should expect in the coming months.
Below is a chart that shows what happened coming out of the 2008 lows, when many were also looking for a an ICL and “blood bath” sell-off. As you can see, advances out of bear market lows do not follow the typical script. Simply put, there was no blood-bath to be found around six months after the Oct 2008 lows.
Precious Metals Primer – A peek into the next phase – chart freak
Friday June 10th
We have 1 trading day left in the week and then we can relax. The weekend report will further our discussion on Energy and Precious metals, so today I am going to just show you 3 charts that will be in the weekend report.
.
You may have heard that you should not buy miners until after a 'blood bath phase'. As mentioned in my May 18 report, I have received emails telling me that warnings are out that the next ICL ( meaningful cycle lows that occur roughly every 5-6 months) will NOT come until we first see a huge sell off. Many think that will happen around Brexit ( June 23rd).
.
I used this chart to show what happened coming out of the 2008 lows, when we looked for our 2nd ICL. I do NOT see a deep bloodbath phase 6 months after Oct 2008 lows. I see higher lows for 1 year, so that is noteworthy.
