Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

AUGUST 4th Weekend Report – It Looks Very Close

August 4, 2018 in /by

In the weekend reports, we take a step back and try to look at the big picture.  It looks like we are VERY CLOSE to some changes.    Let's take a look...

 

 

SPX WEEKLY #1  -  I have been discussing this divergence. It is not a sign of strength at the highs, though the big picture is obviously a bull run.  Bull runs can & do pause and falter as the consolidate recent gains, see 2015 into 2016.  This can take months.  Read the chart.

 

SPX WEEKLY #2 - Again, Bull runs can go choppy and difficult for weeks, months, even years, as seen here.  Read the chart.

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Friday August 3rd – The Employment Report

August 3, 2018 in /by

I don't expect any big surprises with the July Employment report , scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.  It shouldn't really affect things, but since that is the next event on deck,  we'll just have to wait and see if it does or doesn't affect our markets. Let's take a look at Thursdays action, shall we?  We have  A LOT to discuss...

 

IWM From July 24 -  I have been looking for a dip into a dcl, and so we would expect a top of some sort to form.  The IWM started us off looking weak .   Notice how the Weak  MACD & High volume drop makes the IWM, a former leader, look weak  That 50sma did NOT look like it would act as support and it didn't.  Price broke below the 50sma...

 

IWM COPY/PASTE FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT -   I thought that the 'pattern was bullish, but indicators remained weak".  It looked like it could bounce though, as the markets have become oversold.   You can read my thoughts from yesterday.

 

IWM  CURRENTLY- The 50sma did not hold, but the bounce did come Thursday and Price did regain the 50 sma. The bounce actually looks bullish, but indicators still do not. That makes this "Iffy".  Any reversal like this ( regaining support) can be bought with a tight stop,  just in case these markets break out higher.

 

  So timing-wise, We are coming due for a dcl, but that could be a 1/2 cycle low, as mentioned on the NASDAQ yesterday, and we may go a bit higher.  These markets are surprising both to the upside & downside lately during earnings season,  and that makes it a bit trickier as things become choppy.  It is a stock pickers market when things get choppy like this.   Lets continue...

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August 1st – Fed Day – Fed Up

August 1, 2018 in /by

 

 

SPX -  I am still expecting the General Markets to begin rolling over.

 

Even with great earnings beats that GOOG and AMZN had, the NASDAQ fell for a couple of days.  AAPL beat too, but I still think that the markets are going to have a hard time resisting a drop from here.

 

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Tuesday July 31st – The Triggerfish

July 31, 2018 in /by

In anticipation of a change in the way a market sector is moving, we sometimes start looking for a possible catalyst or a trigger that will cause that change in direction.

 

NASDAQ - The NASDAQ  was strong and moved to new highs.  Everyone was really bullish, but I was expecting a drop.  The Trigger seems to have been 'earnings'.  We saw FB, NFLX, TWTR among others disappoint, and even though AMZN and GOOG blew away their forecast estimate, it was not enough to prevent the drop that we are now seeing.  Friday and Monday took back 3 weeks of gains. We could get a 1/2 cycle low bounce here, but we may not.

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Pick An Emoji

July 26, 2018 in /by

Talk about a love / hate relationship and you're talking about being a disappointment during earnings.  They love you when you perform well, but it's a different emotion when your earnings 'miss'.

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Facebook released earnings on Wednesday night, and it was set to open about $50 lower.  We'll just have to wait and see how things shake out during the regular markets hours, but this is where it would open at this rate.  Talk about "filling that gap at $170"!

 

On to the markets...

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Golden Surprise

July 25, 2018 in /by

GOLD DAILY – Gold put in a reversal on Friday. Look at the steep drop of the last 3-4 weeks, but my propitiatory indicators are not dropping. That is BULLISH, we should be at or close to the lows.

Beautiful At The Top

July 25, 2018 in /by

I am not saying that we are at THE TOP, but I have been saying that we could be due for A top. One thing that I have found to be true when trading the markets is this:  It is always Doom & Gloom right before a bottom is in place, and Everything is Beautiful when we are at or near a  top.  Right now the buzz is all about bullish earnings, and how you need to be buying the stock market bull run.  Well, we were buying at a dcl 3 weeks ago, but now?  I discussed my thoughts on Googles  earnings yesterday, so lets look at the charts and see what they are telling us...

 

I'm going to start with GOOG, because all the buzz on Twitter and in trading forums Monday was how it shot up $70 after hrs on Monday, and now GOOG & the NASDAQ would just blast off higher.  People were saying that you need to just  "buy this Bull Market".   I wrote last week and in Monday nights report a bit of a different take on things, including Googles $60 Gap after hrs...

 

GOOG -  I used this chart to show that it GAPPED OPEN last October after a long sideways chop, and then it just stalled, went sideways for weeks, and drifted down to fill the gap over a month later. It didn't start a giant rally then, and may not this time due to the 'timing' of things.

GOOG -  Tuesday,  Yes  Google gapped up but it formed a Black topping candle.  Black candles at the top of a move usually exhaust or end the move.   I think that GOOGLE is going to stall and drift or drop soon.

Now let's look at the rest of the markets...

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