Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

The Forest or The Trees?

Have you ever heard the expression " Cant see the Forest through the Trees" or "Cant see the Forest For the Trees" ?  Its about being so focused on 1 Tree ( Or 1 idea) that you cant see the big picture, the Forest . Its important for investors to see all things big and small , because it can affect the outcome along the way.

For example, we may see a nice set up in a stock. EBAY looks to be breaking out

EBAY

 

EBAY just might be breaking  out & take off from here, but stepping back and looking at the bigger picture helps us to see if we should be buying / waiting / or what?

 

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The larger View

  The Big Picture .  Its important to your investing to know what you're looking at, each piece  big  and Small together.  Why? Sometimes it can help us to be patient and wait for the best trade set ups, other times it gives us confidence that our trade ideas will have positive follow through or minimal downside risk. Both are important as we watch the movement in the markets unfold. Well,  Today is Friday and not a whole lot has changed from the report yesterday, so I want to do a quick review and after today we can do a weekend report that may shed even more light on things.

 

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Exercising Patience

    In some situations, patience just doesn't just come naturally.  We need to train ourselves to be patient.  Here at Chartfreak, while looking at a few nice trade set ups here and there,  we've really been waiting patiently for...

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MESMERZING !

It gets mesmerizing & hypnotic if you stare at it too long.   Yes, the picture above, but also the Metals and miners markets.  I wanted to just pop in intra-day and address a few thoughts,  I am getting some "Concerns" about Miners dropping even lower here.    Yes, GDX is lower and Miners look weak, but in a drop to a daily cycle low...that is what fools everyone.  Let me show you 3 charts that can help us to gain confidence.

 

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Comfortable?

As Gold drifts around the lows of November,  many wonder whether it means Metals are about to break through the bottom again and head for new lows, or break out higher?  For many its hard to get really comfortable with the constant ebb and flow of the Metals , especially with the Dollar acting so strongly lately.   We can look at some charts in the public section here and comment a little about whats been happening, but a Premium report just went out this weekend, so the review has to be limited, not taking away from those reading the premium version. 

 Gold hasn't broken down in a lasting manner  from this channel, but its at the low end now and faces resistance above. (Click chart to open)

 

GOLD DEC 8

 

If you look at a long term chart of SILVER, it finds itself in a similar place ...

 

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Comfortable- But Never Overly Relaxed

  Right now I am comfortable with the present information indicating that we did see an ICL in Early November. It also appears that when we look at Gold and Miners, they  have moved forward in what is likely going to be a "Right Translated"  daily cycle.  There is no way to KNOW this ahead of time, but what This means is  that it "Peaks" its highest point in that Daily Cycle more than halfway through it. That also means that it will break to new highs once it has found its daily cycle low and reverses higher.  So while I am comfortable that things are still lining up properly... I never like to get Overly Comfortable. The markets can do anything , so we stay alert .  Lets examine what the Gold/ Silver/ Miners are looking like after last week, and then discuss a few other things.

 

Gold On Friday after the jobs report ended like this -

 

CLOSE FRIDAY

Notice this important fact about Gold ...

 

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Jobs Report

Today we get the Friday Jobs Report.   Yes...FRIDAY! If you've followed my reports for the past 4  Fridays, it has been a day for GOLD shake outs. This is GOLD as I start writing, we might as well expect some shaking . Looking at this chart , however, You can see that a drop below the bottom trend line  (& later a recovery) would just be more noise.

 

DEC 5 gold

 

 

We are also anticipating a Daily Cycle Low, so a drop in GOLD and Miners is possible, but should lead to a higher low.   REMEMBER - Daily Cycles can last 20  + days ...

 

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I Think Its Time

After looking at a few thousand charts yesterday , I am thinking that it might just be time to take some positions if you dont have one.  Though we "COULD" dip down into a daily cycle low, I again have to wonder if that SMACK DOWN last Friday-Monday was the end of a short daily cycle.  THAT would mean we are in the 2nd DCYcle.   Also looking at charts of many Miners yesterday, they look like good set ups , some have very little downside risk vs what could be a nice %-Gain to the upside.  Take a look with me and see what you think. 

 

GOLD 4 hr chart this morning.  Looks pretty bullish as I write  (7:00 A.M.)

4 HR GOLD

 

SO I mention above a possible future DCL with the Jobs report Friday, but this cup & Handle also looks like it could POP higher for a couple of days.  IF a DCL is still ahead, it THEN may only drop to a DCL that isnt  much lower than right here if break out of this cup/handle soon.   LOOK AGAIN at GOLD WKLY as of yesterday...

 

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