Archive for year: 2015
Beige Book
/29 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart FreakJust a reminder that the Fed will be speaking at 12:45
Read MoreLeaders And Laggers
/19 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart FreakI believe that today the Beige book is released and Janet Yellen speaks. Will that change current conditions in the market? We'll see, but right now in a sector that sold off to new lows, we are seeing leaders emerge. We'll discuss that after a brief review of the markets.
.SPX - I'm noticing a weak MACD ,but the RSI looks good. I still think that the markets can break to new highs, but being the 3rd daily cycle I also think that the upside may be capped a bit for now. Notice how the 10sma held the decline.
Read MorePublic Post – Whats Happening With Gold?
/5 Comments/in Public /by Alex - Chart FreakI received a good number of emails where people said that they were “Going short for the final plunge in Gold below $1000!”. I’m not saying that that plunge wont come, but does the evidence point to last weeks break down being the signal to go short? Lets look at some charts and see what I wrote in my weekend report.
The USD Wkly looks strong and has weakened Gold, but will it break out & run or might it pause or even double top?
If this is a rising wedge, the dollar will stall (or fall) and Gold could pop. I wrote a few bullish and bearish points on the chart.
THE CRB – If the DOLLAR double tops, the CRB would likely bottom. It is at support and overdue for a 3 yr cycle low. This would imply that the Dollar will top.
Lets talk about what happened in GOLD last week.
EDIT: This is from the weekend report unless I note otherwise
GOLD – Friday New lows. Please note that Silver & Miners are not following. They usually lead the way down. With that I have to wonder if this is a final shake out similar to that quick drop in July? Many have gone short & are bearish now again.
UPDATE : Monday Gold recovered while the USD went higher.
SILVER– Silver held recent Nov 23 lows as it sold off and reversed higher Friday. In fact, the MACD is trying to cross upward at these lows. I would be nervous “Shorting Silver” here. It didn’t drop to new lows with Gold and the MACD is gaining traction.
AG – Is a silver stock. This looks strong for what happened this past week.
SSRI – A Silver stock that is holding up on the 10sma despite recent selling.
GDX – I drew this mid day Friday to show that GOLD broke to new lows and was staying down there, but Miners held their Sept 11 lows, and also didnt break the recent November lows from a week ago. HMMM
UPDATE AS OF MONDAY : So look at components of GDX. Is this a sign that Gold is about to plunge after breaking to new lows? or does this look like smart money could be accumulating Miners? Should you short this?
NEM – Gold broke down to new lows, NEM looks strong.
ABX – Gold broke to new lows, ABX is holding up well.
SA – Another Gold stock that is ignoring Golds drop. This set up was actually being pointed out as a buy at the 50sma for the past week.
Finally, this is the C.O.T. released Monday. It shows that SMARTMONEY has bailed out on their shorts for Gold. They are NOT heavily short Gold. The prior lows for GOLD are pointed out, and smart money shorts are less now than they were at the prior lows. Should you be shorting when SMARTMONEY is not?
GOLD broke down to new lows Friday and I read on stocktwits and in other areas that many people were now shorting. Silver and Miners didn’t follow as shown above. In fact, some Silver & Gold Mining stocks are even holding their 10sma as of Friday. The C.O.T. shows that Smart money was rapidly closing their short positions. In my weekend report I was pointing out that by leaving emotions about that break down aside, the evidence was bullish too. Monday we saw GOLD recover and Miners move higher, while the dollar was green too. If you are short, you must make sure you have stops in place. I believe we could Rally or have a good bounce at least.
Thank you for stopping by and reading along at chartfreak. If this is the type of analysis that may help you in your trading, why not sign up for a month and try it out. It is only $37.95 for 1 month. You can also sign up for free email alerts to let you know when these free posts are released. Again thanks for being here and happy trading!
~ALEX
Did You Short The Gold Break Down?
/48 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart FreakIn my weekend report I warned about a possible false break down in Gold. I received emails saying that many 'shorted this sucker for the final flush down phase'. I repeat, Please use & honor your 'stops', I see things differently. I'll explain after a market review.
The SPX was looking bullish and I expected a break to higher price, but today there are areas that need to be noted and watched.
IWM - This also had a semi high volume rejection at the 200sma. That doesn't mean that it is done, but we'll watch to see if the 10sma or another area of support can hold it up.
Here is where it gets interesting...
Read MoreLight Holiday Trading?
/20 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart FreakThis was possibly going to be a slow week of holiday trading, with Thursdays markets closed in the U.S. and 1/2 day Friday. In some areas we actually saw some noteworthy changes. Lets take a look at our weeks activities.
SPX - No change from what we expected, but we should see a push higher soon.
This is encouraging ...
Read MoreBullish Changes
/33 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart FreakToday is Wednesday and the last full day of trading this week for the markets in the U.S. There were some bullish looking moves yesterday, some expected and another was a little surprising. Lets review.
SPX - I expected a little drop, likely to the 10sma, and a BUY opportunity for UPRO, TQQQ, or another long vehicle that you may trade.
I posted this chart of UPRO yesterday, using the 10sma as a guide. The 2nd one was at the close.
That was a perfect "Buy" opportunity, but It could still be bought here if you missed it.
Read MoreSlow Week Ahead?
/27 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart FreakThis is a holiday week in the U.S., so I would expect that the markets may begin to slow down as the holiday approaches. Lets review what took place Monday. There actually were a couple of noteworthy occurrences since the weekend report.
Read MoreNov 22 Weekend Report
/52 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart FreakWith the release of the Fed Minutes Wednesday, we got a good amount of action in the markets this week. Lets review sector by sector.
The SPY - On Nov 16, with a day 25 high in place, I expected a bullish break higher and a DCL to be put in place.
SPX Nov 18 - This was a bullish break out back above the 200sma.
That was follow through after the release of the fed minutes. What can we expect?
Read MoreNew Trade Ideas
/50 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart FreakFriday November 20, 2015
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