Keep It Simple Stupid ( K.I.S.S.)

There was a lot of action in the markets today, maybe that was due to the Beige Book and Fed Yellen Speech .  Reminder: DRAGHI speaks Thursday morning and we have a jobs report Friday morning.

 I wanted to just keep It Simple today,  and let the charts do the talking. Lets see what they have to say...


SPX -  Dec 1 - I was pointing out that the chart looked bullish, but as it moved higher the MACD was 'concerning'.

SPX 12-1

SPX - Now both Price and the MACD are concerning. That could be a bearish engulfing, even though the futures are pointing higher as I write.

SPX 12-2

Read on for more...

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Beige Book

Just a reminder that the Fed will be speaking at 12:45

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Leaders And Laggers

I believe that today the Beige book is released and Janet Yellen speaks.  Will that change current conditions in the market? We'll see, but right  now in a sector that sold off to new lows, we are seeing leaders emerge.  We'll discuss that after a brief review of the markets.


SPX - I'm noticing a weak MACD ,but the RSI looks good.  I still think that the markets can break to new highs, but being the 3rd daily cycle I also think that the upside may be capped a bit for now. Notice how the 10sma held the decline.

SPX 12-1 Read More

Public Post – Whats Happening With Gold?

I received a good number of emails where people said that they were “Going short for the final plunge in Gold below $1000!”.   I’m not saying that that plunge wont come, but does the evidence point to last weeks break down being the signal to go short? Lets look at some charts and see what I wrote in my weekend report. 


The USD Wkly looks strong and has weakened Gold, but will it break out & run or might it pause or even double top?


If this is a rising wedge, the dollar will stall (or fall) and Gold could pop. I wrote a few bullish and bearish points on the chart.

USD 11-30



THE CRB  –  If the DOLLAR double tops, the CRB would likely bottom. It is at support and overdue for a 3 yr cycle low. This would imply that the Dollar will top.

CRB longer term




Lets talk about what happened in GOLD last week. 


EDIT:  This is from the weekend report unless I note otherwise


GOLD –  Friday New lows. Please note that  Silver & Miners are not following.  They usually lead the way down. With that I have to wonder if this is a final shake out similar to that quick drop in July?  Many have gone short & are bearish now again.

GOLD 11-27

UPDATE : Monday Gold recovered  while the USD went higher.  

GOLD 11-30 a

SILVER–  Silver held recent Nov 23 lows as it sold off and reversed higher Friday. In fact, the MACD is trying to cross upward at these lows. I would be nervous “Shorting Silver” here.   It didn’t drop to new lows with Gold and the MACD is gaining traction.

SILVER 11-27

AG – Is a silver stock.  This looks strong for what happened this past week.


SSRI  –  A Silver stock that is holding up on the 10sma  despite recent selling.


GDX – I drew this mid day Friday to show that  GOLD broke to new lows and was staying down there, but Miners held their Sept 11 lows,  and also didnt break the recent November lows from a week ago.  HMMM  

GDX 11-27


UPDATE AS OF MONDAY : So look at components of GDX.  Is this a sign that Gold is about to plunge after breaking to new lows?  or does this look like smart money could be accumulating Miners? Should you short this?

NEM –  Gold broke down to new lows,  NEM looks strong.

NEM 11-30

ABX – Gold broke to new lows, ABX is holding up well.

ABX 11-30

SA –  Another  Gold stock that is ignoring Golds drop. This set up was actually being pointed out as a buy at the 50sma for the past week.

SA 11-30

  Finally, this is the C.O.T. released Monday.  It shows that SMARTMONEY has bailed out on their shorts for Gold.   They are NOT heavily short Gold.    The prior  lows for GOLD are pointed out, and smart money shorts are less now than they were at the prior lows.   Should you be shorting when SMARTMONEY is not?

GOLD COT 11-30a



  GOLD broke down to new lows Friday and I read on stocktwits and in other areas that many  people were now shorting.   Silver and Miners didn’t follow as shown above.  In fact, some Silver & Gold Mining stocks are even holding their 10sma as of Friday.  The C.O.T. shows that Smart money was rapidly closing their short positions.  In my weekend report I was pointing out that by leaving emotions about that break down aside, the evidence was bullish too.   Monday we saw GOLD recover and Miners move higher, while the dollar was green too. If you are short, you must make sure you have stops in place.  I believe we could Rally or have a good bounce at least.

   Thank you for stopping by and reading along at chartfreak.  If this is the type of analysis that may help you in your trading, why not sign up for a month and try it out.  It is only $37.95 for 1 month. You can also sign up for free email alerts to let you know when these free posts are released. Again thanks for being here and happy trading!



Did You Short The Gold Break Down?

In my weekend report I warned about a possible false break down in Gold.   I received emails saying that many 'shorted this sucker for the final flush down phase'.  I repeat, Please use & honor your 'stops', I see things differently.   I'll explain after a market review.

The SPX was looking bullish and I expected a break to higher price, but today there are areas that need to be noted and watched.

SPX 11-30

IWM - This also had a semi high volume rejection at the 200sma. That doesn't mean that it is done, but we'll watch to see if the 10sma or another area of support can hold it up.

IWM 11-30

Here is where it gets interesting...

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