Archive for month: December, 2015
In case one couldn’t tell , “It’s A Fed Thing”. I thought that maybe it would be a little quiet leading up to the Fed declaration on Wednesday and then we’d see a little fireworks, but its a Fed Thing. Things started shaking up long before Wednesday. Lets take a look.
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SPX WKLY – from the weekend report, the weekly looks a bit bearish.
SPX DAILY – from the weekly report. I did mention that we could bounce off of support, but will it get that far?
Todays reversal looked quite convincing, so has my thinking changed?
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I’m not one to blame news events or market manipulation for all of the moves that the market makes, but this Fed decision is likely already one that is affecting the markets. The charts are showing signs of change, so lets dig deep and see what we can find.
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SPX WKLY– DO you see weakness in recent weeks in our ‘Bull market’?
Pullbacks of 10 % can be healthy in a bull market, but lets take a deeper look…
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I just wanted to post a couple of quick thoughts before the weekend. I will post a couple of charts from yesterdays report, because nothing has really changed there, and a couple of new ones.
WTIC – This chart is from yesterday. That swing low did not hold, and I do not believe that it was a dcl that failed quickly. I still expect a bounce, but I think that would only be a Dcl, not an ICL in my opinion. After yesterday we are under the B.B. again. DCL soon.
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With only 4-5 trading days left until the Fed meeting next Tuesday & Wednesday, I’m not just watching what the markets do today, but also trying to discern how they could be aligned going into that Fed Mtg. Lets start with the $USD.
USD – as of Dec 4, the weekly chart of the Dollar bounced off of one of its important supports, the 10ma. I didnt like the MACD set up, this looks like a double top, at least temporarily.
But by Dec 7 it looked like a Bear Flag was forming on the daily chart. More downside likely.
That Bear Flag gave way, losing the 50sma yesterday and
That 10 ma weekly support has been breached ( so far) too. Notice that this never happened in the strong bull run higher from July 2014 to March 2015.
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Tuesday was a little like watching paint dry in the markets. Not a lot has changed, but it is important to watch how the various sectors set up going into the Fed Mtg next Wednesday. How they approach that Dec 16 decision might give clues as to which direction the next move will take.
SPX – This was Dec 7 and the markets dropped a bit, but remain above the 50sma for now.
SPX – Tuesday it is still holding the 50sma, but at this point I see signs of internal weakness , not strength.
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Have a plan, and stick to it. If something moves rapidly in the wrong direction, don’t get upset and don’t panic. Remain as calm as possible, take action if necessary. These are my rules for walking the Serengeti and Trading. 🙂
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GOLD BOTTOMS –
Lately Golds lows have been hard for some to hold. “Have a plan and stick to it. If something moves rapidly in the wrong direction, don’t get upset and don’t panic….”
More on precious metals later
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SPX – It will be interesting to see where we are on Dec 15th. This could break down or form a triangle here.
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After this weekends report, I wanted to look at some charts of stocks for buying opportunities. The theme chart above was an older buying opportunity that is now a bit extended. It may pullback and offer another low risk entry, but here are some current opportunities…
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It’s what we at Chartfreak have been expecting, but I think there could be even more to the story 🙂
More later in the report, lets review all market sectors first…
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The Precious Metals markets have been tricky lately, selling off to new lows day after day. There were clues along the way that were foretelling the big move that we see today. You can read my last report here under the public blog to see what I was looking at and expecting. This update will give add recent charts used in this weeks reports.
GOLD DEC 2 – Prices kept hitting new lows, but the Miners were staying above their 10sma. I was pointing out that the rising MACD and the C.O.T. report were actually just a couple of the Bullish signs indicating that soon Gold & Silver should rally higher.
This is the GLD today
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What a week! The Fed spoke on Wednesday, Thursday we saw Draghi shaking things up, and now on Friday we will have the November jobs report and The OPEC Leaders will discuss whether or not to cut production. Yesterday we saw some U-Turns in the market place and it’s not like they dont have further implications. Lets review.
SPX – I recently started pointing out weakness in the rise of the markets and the Dollar. These were from Dec 2.
USD Dec 2 – Bearish
Now lets see what happened and discuss what the implications going forward might be…
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