June 9,2014 I see a lot of trading set ups in the markets lately, various sectors too, but am I comfortable taking them? MAYBE as trades, but please be careful and don't get TOO comfortable. Like the Hammock above, These markets may look comfortable place to jump up on & rest (as they rise day after day) , but they are getting extended- and even nice set ups could fall through if a sell off starts. I am expecting a sell off (Not sure how much) sooner than later.
I TWEETED these charts last week , thinking that we would get a pullback, but they paused or dipped for 2 days and UP UP UP they went .
Now they are again overextended...
Read More May 27
As I speak , Gold is down $13. Is it breaking down from this triangle pattern that has formed over the past month? Quite possible- Most have heard that a triangle pattern is a "continuation pattern" and that follow thru is in the direction that the pattern started in. So Question is: Was Gold moving UP or DOWN when it started the Triangle?? Many expect GOLD to continue DOWN from here, since it appears that it entered this triangle as it headed down .
FOR EX: This is what the continuation pattern looks like in action. Heading up into the triangle pattern, it broke out upside.
EVEN THOUGH GOLD is selling off now , and looks to be follow thru to the downside, I wanted to point out something that I found interesting and AT LEAST WORTH A DOUBLE TAKE
Read More MAY 23 $NATGAS
I am looking at $NATGAS after its extremely bullish run up January & February. Last week a friend of mine POLY of The Financial Tap.com mentioned it as a possible short candidate a week ago, but I saw things a little differently . I was looking at $NATGAS close up & shared this chart,showing possible support & MACD divergence . Notice also, however, the 50sma overhead "Could" act as possible resistance. I was obviously thinking it could be a "Long".
I've said this many times...you cant argue with the markets, you must change with them if what you think you are seeing changes. Well POLY may have been early & correct in what he was seeing. Another friend of mine, Steve Chapman of The Refined Investor also noted NATGAS as a possible short , so I re-visited the charts and low & behold I noticed that NATGAS was rejected at the 50sma & the RSI 50% also turned down. (See the chart below, click to enlarge) .
Read More May 22
Computers are painting the charts? I'll believe that when I see Elephants painting Elephants! Oh wait- I HAVE seen that. So 'IF' they have hired a bunch of tech savvy students to run algorithms to "Paint the Charts" into forming Head & Shoulder patterns that break upwards and the MACD crossing down only to see prices spikes up after many go short, etc , then they're doing an AWESOME job in the P.M. markets. I've been Bullish ,flipped to bearish , and now I'm seeing signs of bullishness again. Lets look at the charts and then review some OTHER areas of possible trades setting up too.
$GOLD
So far, when it comes to the expected drop , they haven't been able to sell it off. PRICE , RSI & MACD in GOLD have formed higher lows so far. A close above the 50sma is Bullish I.M.O.
Read More FRIDAY MAY 9
Hi , This is me 
- Above you'll see a picture of a Bear. See the difference? I am not a bear. I just thought that I should clear that up, because after my last report I was asked , "Why are you a bear?"
Really I am not a bear when it comes to Gold & Miners, but taking things step - by - step , there was simply a little downside coming and I'm not so sure that its done yet. I DO see both bullish and not so bullish things in the charts at the end of this week, so how about a quick review.
GDX WEEKLY - Everybody is staring at this pattern, so I almost feel like it wont quite play out the way it seems...but here is how it is set up anyways. Inverse H&S. For now, I must say that a weekly chart with price UNDER THE 10WMA struggles. Notice what GDX did the past few weeks under the 10WMA.
And what does that Stochatics tell you?
And there is more...
Read More MAY 7 (Intraday thoughts)
Lets not find out the hard way. When Gold / Miners are acting correctly , Trading can be profitable. Have you ever traded them when they get caught up in a sell off though? I mean a REAL SELL OFF? They pick up speed and start defying support levels , Moving avergaes, over sold markers, and so on. We may be starting one of those now, so I wanted to point out a few reasons why I think that that may be.
GDX DAILY - we just lost support of the 10 & 20 sma this morning. That was my line in the sand, especially with the Stochastics overbought and the R.S.I. rejecting 50 again (REMEMBER- THIS WAS JUST AFTER THE DOLLAR WAS GETTING CRUSHED YESTERDAY).
I was holding JNUG, but flipped to JDST this a.m.--I believe we may see Metals / Miners accelerate in their selling - lets discuss why and look at a few POSSIBLE targets along the way.
Read More SUNDAY MAY 4 7 Charts Update on Metals/Miners
I'm still short term Bullish, long term 'Cautious'. We have to be. The charts are shaping up nicely, but I'm always open to further lows into the Summer months. This caused me to want to look at Mostly weekly charts for this update. I want to keep commentary fairly brief and let you allow the charts to do the talking.
GDX WEEKLY- Notice how it Lost the 30WMA in the fall of 2012. It has regained and remained above it. It is something to watch. Will it hold Or will a perfect Inverse H&S form into the summer??
Read More APRIL 26 (Saturday Update added here)
In Trending markets, investing with a bias can be profitable. At other times, however, like possible turning points or periods of volatility, you have to be willing to change direction FAST and Leave out any BIAS until direction is established. That said, lets quickly review the recent action in GDX.
After a nice Dec to March Bull run in GDX , we got a false break out and an Impulsive drop. A tag of the 50sma & rejection (while Gold was up & $USD was down) alerted us to go short. THIS CHART shows that I thought we were in for another impulsive wave down.
THAT was April 14th, the Short was profitable. Since then, my April 25th report (which can be read following this one) showed that GDX is possibly morphing into a long position? I went long and here is my update of GDX from Fridays close---
Is is smooth sailing yet???
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