Its a Tiny Bit of a Bull here

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July 26  Weekend thoughts     Well, after the final day of the week, I would say that the reversal in the Metals Mkts Friday  into the close grew a tiny bit more like a Bull.   A baby bull.  It APPEARS to be a bullish reversal, but there are still some cautionary notes and things to watch for….lets have a look.

 

GOLD –  At this point it looks like it is playing out exactly as I mentioned in my last 3 write ups.  A Bullhorn formed, a run of the stops below $1292, bounced off of the 200sma…a reversal.

 

GOLD July 25 bullhorn

 

Perfect right?  Well…caution remains because there are other factors to consider…

 

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This Bounce Bears Watching

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July 25 –   As I write pre-Mkt, a bounce is unfolding.  Many people feel that they always need to be “In the trade”. Sometimes during the strugglesome periods and possible turning points, its best to either hedge positions or just step back and watch how it plays out. If you follow my series of posts on this web site, I was BULLISH Metals & Miners at the end of May.  I caught the lows.  I was Bullish through June and into July, but recently things have changed a bit- with a “Shake out”.   Review my posts –  you’ll see that I started warning of weakness,   but still a bullish recovery possible.  Then it went to a baby bear. Then a battle of Bull vs Bear is becoming more evident. Now?  I expect a bounce….but this bounce could just be the Bear playing around or is the Bull going to take over?  QUICK review -To the Charts…

 

July 15-   I pointed out the steep sell off in Gold needed to bounce, was that a Bullhorn forming? –

 

GOLD july 15 bullhorn

GOLD – is this still just a Bullhorn ? Notice Gold bounced off of the 200sma, closed above the 50sma. Now a bounce?

 

GOLD BULLHORN

 

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Pre-Mkt sell off in GOLD – Still just a battle of the Bulls & the Bears

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JULY 24 –  Pre mkt    

I spent some time yesterday researching, since we are at a point where some people are ready to throw in the towel in GOLD , others arent.

Some are saying that “GOLD is weak here (And miners) and if this were a 2nd daily cycle…it should have blasted off by now. It has no follow through & is too weak.”   Others even think  (And it could be)  that “Maybe a 2nd DCycle may not have started yet…maybe we are still in an extended 1st DCycle?”  I began to wonder myself too.  Since We have no overhead trend line break, it IS a possibility that we are still in the 1st DCycle , even  if they “Run the stops ” here in GOLD and it dips below $1292. It could recover.  We are selling off pre-mkt,  as mntioned yesterday, there are signs of weakness, however,  I am not THAT concerned yet.   

$GOLD – So Lets look at some charts-

 

$GOLD JULY 24

 

GOLD  – is  selling off in pre mkt , but this chart shows that its not that bad. Its still a normal pullback using Technical Analysis, so we’ll keep our eyes on things.

 

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Just a little Bear(Ish)

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July 22, 2013     I didnt want to scare anyone, so I decided to just show a playful little bear to make my next point, instead of a Full Blown Bear.  If you’ve been following my thinking, you know that I expected another Leg higher. Using cycles for timing, it should’ve popped higher or at least should  POP really soon. If not  –  this second leg up may just fail.  So why the little bearishness?  Well, as time goes on and the consolidation continues, we are losing the “strength” that was adding confidence. Notice the following charts…

 

GOLD is weakening & looks actually tired

 

GOLD TIRED

I want to see GOLD get above those 2 moving averages overhead & not struggle so much.

What about the Miners?

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UPDATE: Are We Still On Track?

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July 20  –   Please read my last report and you’ll see how I was viewing things for the Metals and Miners market.  Then the next question is :   “Well, that report was July 17 and things got a little “whippy” since then,  are we still on track?”    The short answer is,  “Yes, so far it was a little whippy, but we are still on track.”   As a review, I was expecting Metals and Miners to begin a 2nd leg higher, similar to what we saw at the June 2013 lows ( 2 legs up) and Dec 2013 lows. Using the GDX and the December 2013 run up –  I used this chart (Below) to help us visualize what the move could look like.  Now I want to just do a quick update .

 

PICTURE GDX LIKE THIS

 

   Look again at my last report and I said that  If the Miners gap down Friday, you may want to add a position in one of your favorite miners, because they may reverse & start upward.  Well, Friday the miners DID gap down and stayed down almost all day, finally beginning to recover into the close with a reversal.   That was  (To me)  important because…

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Looking For Follow Through

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July 17    Yes, I am looking for follow through, but it may NOT be immediate.  IN my last report I showed how GDX had a HUGE     Buy On Weakness (B.O.W.) number – That big of a number usually shows the ‘sell off’ could turn up shortly.  It is Not a perfect timing tool, but those HUGE numbers usually indicate a change could happen shortly.   Well, Today Gold / Miners  did what I was again looking for (See last report),  but GDX also had a Large  Sell On Strength ( S.O.S.) Number today.  I’m thinking that  We may dip into OPEX tomorrow, so I’ll be watching how that  possible dip “looks”, and see if we DO get some follow through later that day or Next week.

 

Lets review some charts…  First- I Mentioned that I think some people think that these 2 “PEAKS” are similar & thus a strong sell off was expected.    Note the Triangle, POP & DROP.

 

GDX CONTRARIAN JULY 15

 

I want to point out the difference between  “Peaks” 1 & 2,  which is why I am expecting a run Higher & not a similar sell off.  Notice what I am seeing “time-wise on the following chart ….

 

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Break Down Again or Shake Out?

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July 16, 2014      ARE WE SEEING A POSSIBLE SHAKE OUT FORMING & NOT THE START OF ANOTHER DEEP SELL OFF?  I am not a perma bull, so when market conditions change, one definitely needs to be able to react quickly, honor stops, and make the necessary adjustments  to save capital.  One thing that I do NOT advocate however, is flip long, then short , then long, then short whenever the markets change directions.  Some may do that successfully but most do not.  I have done that in the past  and have found that making money that way (Esp in whip-saw type conditions) is not easy.  Fear of “Missing the Move” can cause one to jump in & out like that, but In fact, It actually can rob you of good money in “whippy” markets – ESPECIALLY LEVERAGED POSITIONS. One doesnt ALWAYS need to be “In” and I have found that the best thing (For me) to do is examine possibilities and then watch for a trade-able trend to develop. With that in mind, lets examine the whippy Metals & Miners here-

THIS is GOLD

 

GOLD july 15 bullhorn

A bounce would be nice, because there are technical reasons to not like what we see if we are Bullish…

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THIS IS IT

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JULY 10  I have been discussing & waiting for the next leg up in Metals & MIners.  Most who follow me on Twitter know that,  just like in late MAY when I was expecting the “Meaningfiul Lows” to be followed by a Great Rally,  I have been looking for ‘Low Risk Entries’ or  ‘BUY POINTS’   during the recent consolidation – to get positioned for the next leg up.   Yes, It is starting now.   If you didnt take your position during the long consolidation  (Well, it felt like a year, but I think it only lasted about 12 trading days) and wish that you had, I am going to show some charts for “shopping”.    To start though, lets review where we are….

 

I TWEETED this on JULY 7, the well know BULLISH CUP & HANDLE

 

CUP and HANDLE

These usually break out if conditions are right. Conditions definitely looked right.  In Fact ,  Bullish conditions have been pointed out here since the End of MAY. By looking at some successful bullish  charts,  we can also get some clues as to which Miners might be “set up” properly right now…

 

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Eventually it’ll get tired, but for now…

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JULY 3 ….    Part 2  Some of the set ups from Part one (Open this report & scroll down for Part 1 July 1) I still see as valid like GOGO, TEAR, and a few others. Others, like the 3D stocks, burst higher & now one can watch for an entry as they ‘test’ break outs. NOTE:  If Markets head into a “Correction” – these Tests can fail.  If the Markets remain healthy- Could be buying opportunity.

To start:  A few more charts of possible Trade Ideas & a quick  “lesson”.   As I write & Chart (7:00 A.M. EST) Silver & GOLD are dropping fast. I see Silver like this…no worries yet-

 

SILVER CORRECTION 3

 

This next chart shows that a correction is healthy & GOLD is still fine too…

 

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UPDATE

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June 30,2014   These are just a couple of charts to update how I am watching things unfold in the MINERS. We had our first run up, which I believe is just the first leg up. A consolidation has begun, as did in the DEC run up.  Is it finished?    Maybe, Maybe not, but if I’m going to establish a position in your favorite Miners (As a core) or trade , I don’t want to wait until I have to chase…. you want to try to find low risk entries using charts.  Risk / reward is better at Support areas, certain Moving averages,  and even a break out of a consolidation one can enter a low risk entry….and then keep our eyes on it to exit if it turns against us.

 

 

With that in mind…I was watching GDX, GDXJ  for clues , and JNUG for an entry . GDX does have lightish volume today, but is that uncommon before it approaches a break out area? Notice the 1 hr chart. (Click charts to enlarge)

 

GDX 1 hr

 

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