Would You Want To Be Short Gold Right Now?
Nov 12, 2014 Short Gold? No thank you!
Quick Shot
Nov 6 2014 Quick view of some interesting set ups. Still waiting for GOLD / MINERS to show downside follow through or change direction. I expect at least a solid bounce , a rally for a couple of weeks, but I studied some weekly charts and if the trend down resumes after a rally (or even if it were to continues from here after a sideways move ) I get deep downside possibilities too. I will save that for the weekend report.
For now, these were interesting charts if you want to trade another area
Uraniums look to be Bottoming - Double bottom
Lets see some individual Uranium stocks and see if we see anything happening there
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Lets see some individual Uranium stocks and see if we see anything happening there
Read MoreUPDATE
Nov 5 nearing the close
As the day played out, it was interesting. The GOLD prices held the lows and GDX actually got to green at one point (Gap fill?). GDXJ is showing that it is still weaker than GDX...but all things said, what am I seeing right now?
1. Gold held todays lows and that was a target (BUT Miners lead the way down, and have turned lower)
2. Miners are still weak , they appear to show lighter volume today as they stretch to new lows and you can clearly see 5 waves down- but has the 5th wave ended is the question? They COULD do a watershed move ...and weekly chart bear that out too. The week is only 1/2 over.
3. JDST and DUST look excellent on a weekly chart. They look extremely bullish and since it is early in the week, that needs to be kept in mind. If they do not reverse by the end of the week, they have targets that are much higher (Same for WKLY JNUG/NUGT GDX GDXJ lower ) . SO jumping in looking for a bottom may not be prudent...although "Looking of signs that it could be near a bottom" signaled by a reversal in metals and Miners into the end of the week could be. Also a reversal in the Dollar and equity markets , if we are at a point of change.
THAT is how I am watching things for now and this is how bullish DUST (& JDST) look on a weekly time frame. I dont usually chart 3x ETFs, but they do also play out in exaggerated ways . SO please look at these DUST charts . WHEN THE MOVE ENDS, the snap back in the other direction should be strong, and I want to prepare to enter "Long" positions for that move, since I feel (for me personally) it is too late to chase the downside. (Unless one is a day trader & fast)
4 dust charts consider....
WKLY is bullish if it dosnt reverse by weeks end
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Read MoreAnticipation?
OCT 28 Just a quick update because we are in the FED ZONE again. The picture above depicts what can happen after the FED speaks on Wednesday , and that can be in either direction. With that in mind, I hate to recommend trades that can really get smoked to the downside, but I do have some pretty nice short term set ups forming, so lets just discuss a couple of things here now, and see how things play out moving forward into the Fed day and beyond.
Oct 23 - I thought the SPX would get stuck under the 50sma , maybe even dip to the 20sma . I posted this
The following chart shows that we have done exactly that so far...SPX remains under the 50sma on a closing basis (as I was writing, it broke above)
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The following chart shows that we have done exactly that so far...SPX remains under the 50sma on a closing basis (as I was writing, it broke above)
Read MoreLook – Dont Touch!
OCT 23, 2014 As I begin writing GOLD/MINERS are at lows of the day. Miners are breaking to new lows, a break down? It looks like it on the surface.
Here is what I am seeing ( but you may not want to touch this yet). I know this sounds C-R-A-Z-Y , but I am seeing something odd with the GOLD RUN UP & MINERS SELL OFF. Does THAT correlation usually last? No. As I have mentioned - $GOLD looks to have made a real ICL, meaningful low, just like last May. GDX is testing High Volume FED MINUTE lows. I would watch for a "POSSIBLE" reversal today, thinking the MINERS are making a 5th wave down, POSSIBLE false break down. We are actually testing a HUGE candle on 1/3 rd the volume. Those "Light Volume Tests" reverse FAR MORE OFTEN than not. I expect a reversal or bounce if volume remains this light, but its RISKY. You may just want to LOOK , DONT TOUCH.
I also want to zoom in and show you a 5 day 5 minute chart ...
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I also want to zoom in and show you a 5 day 5 minute chart ...
Read MoreDont You Just Hate Gaps?
October 17, 2014
I hate gaps, and the markets are set to break away with a pretty large GAP this morning. When markets GAP Higher at the open, they can do a number of things from there, and THATS why I hate gaps. I had a large number of buying opportunities in my sights for you. If you look at the "Comments" section from yesterdays report, BANIMAL asked me about what I was seeing, and I told him that I was seeing reversals across the board, and was planning on sharing my thoughts. GAPS tend to change that, so from here...Lets review some Charts
On OCT 15 - I thought we made capitulation Lows and TWEETED the following charts (Do you follow me on Twitter?)
Click here , then look for "Download & click it. Click "OPEN" and when you hear me...hit the back button (Get back to the this website & follow charts below)
SPX REVERSAL
Also notice the following 3 charts , adding weight to the idea that we were at capitulation lows...
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Also notice the following 3 charts , adding weight to the idea that we were at capitulation lows...
Read MoreWe’ve Been ‘Conditioned’
OCT 15, 2014 I wanted to try something this morning , and that was to record the session and see if you could all follow along that way. I had my reservations, because I have a Boston accent, but hopefully you'll be able to understand me despite that. I have taken extra time to also write out the notes, for those unable to hear this recording. When I listened back to it, there was a bit of a click sound at times, I apologize, but for the sake of time, I cannot re-record it this morning. I DO NOT know what it was, I was sitting still, but it sounded like I was tappping or scratching at the microphone (I wasnt ) 
This morning when I started recording (7:30 A.M. Eastern) GOLD was down almost $10 and $Silver was down over 30 cents ...they have since recovered after 8:30. Whether that holds or maybe we sell off later, this report is likely still valid, so I am posting it even though they recovered. Below is the original report .
( For the recording link below ...It is best to
1. right click over the link and open in a new tab. 2. In that nw tab, you'll see "Download", click that 3. your options to 'save' or 'open'...just click open and it will play automatically
go back to this website and follow along. IF You arent good with computers, you can just read what I have written.
Right Click here for the AUDIO CLIP
GOLD - Gold was down $10 in Pre-Mkt and I visited message boards . I kept hearing all over Yahoo, Kitco, etc " Here we go, another slam down", but We are not even at the 10 or 20 sma, and we could be testing out magenta trend-line. So selling today would not be bad...look back at MAY and DEC. During those runs, we often dropped to the 10 & 20sma on the way up.
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This morning when I started recording (7:30 A.M. Eastern) GOLD was down almost $10 and $Silver was down over 30 cents ...they have since recovered after 8:30. Whether that holds or maybe we sell off later, this report is likely still valid, so I am posting it even though they recovered. Below is the original report .
( For the recording link below ...It is best to
1. right click over the link and open in a new tab. 2. In that nw tab, you'll see "Download", click that 3. your options to 'save' or 'open'...just click open and it will play automatically
go back to this website and follow along. IF You arent good with computers, you can just read what I have written.
Right Click here for the AUDIO CLIP
GOLD - Gold was down $10 in Pre-Mkt and I visited message boards . I kept hearing all over Yahoo, Kitco, etc " Here we go, another slam down", but We are not even at the 10 or 20 sma, and we could be testing out magenta trend-line. So selling today would not be bad...look back at MAY and DEC. During those runs, we often dropped to the 10 & 20sma on the way up.
Read MoreBOTTOM HUNTING PART 2
OCT 14, 2014 Since pointing out a few of the things that I look for to "Indicate" a possible trade-able bottom is near, we have had some improvement and I wanted to point those things out. I also have received concerns (Interesting) that some feel they may be missing the move if they havent taken a position, others who have are feeling anxious a bit too ,that 'it's not working' . That seems to lead to questions like ,
1. "Are things O.K., feels like we are just going sideways?"
2. Doesnt this look like a possible bear flag?
And
3. "Do you think it's too late?"
4. "Should I just jump in now?"
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BOTTOM HUNTING
October 13 2014
Often you will hear the expression "Dont try to catch a falling knife" when a sector or stock is relentlessly selling off. In the past few years , we have seen it repeatedly happen in the Precious Metals sector, and most of you are ware that we had some significant lows in place on June 2013, Dec 2013, May 2014. I have been saying that I think we are at another significant low (If you follow Cycles, you know it as an ICL) . Is it possible that we could go lower, instead of trading off the current lows put in after last weeks FED MINUTES? Of course, but are there ways to look at - actually look INTO - the markets, and try to gain some insights as to what may be currently happening. I want to show you what I look at in times like these...it is by no means guess work. Starting with SILVER
Starting with SILVERS break down, most see it as a "Continuation" pattern (And it may be).
Sometimes a move like that can just "Run the stops" set at those levels to "Shake out" weak hands. If THAT was the case, you would expect SILVER to do more than just "Back test" that broken floor. Look at my next chart of Silver Below...
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Sometimes a move like that can just "Run the stops" set at those levels to "Shake out" weak hands. If THAT was the case, you would expect SILVER to do more than just "Back test" that broken floor. Look at my next chart of Silver Below...
Read MoreFor Any Who Followed This Trade
OCT 10 Midday Sold Partial position in APT, liberal stop set on the rest .
I dont usually post my “Sells” , I leave it to the reader to trade at their own risk / reward formula. I just wanted to point out that THIS is now extended 150% above the 50sma, since it went up over 100% in just this week. It is possible that It may just go sideways for a while and allow moving averages to catch up ( like VIMC did when I sold that), but taking some money off of the table is usually wise here.
Yes – VIMC has dropped & moved sideways to the 13 & the 20sma in the past couple of weeks, holding up well. It is actually there now, so it’s even a tad higher now than where I sold it! Holding may have been ok for that one , but who can tell? locking in at least partial profits is prudent when they get this overdone. Look at DGLY , for example.
