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I heard that Janet Yellen had lunch on Tuesday and spoke quite a bit about...never mind, lets just say that she spoke quite a bit.
Some things that I heard seemed to contradict other things that she said, but we see from the moves mid day onward, the markets received it positively. There are some very interesting developments...
Read MoreMonday saw many areas of the markets doing pretty much what was expected, pulling back, consolidating, and just plain ole bouncing around.
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Read MoreLets discuss what I think we are going to see going forward from here. Just like we have seen in the past, it will NOT be a straight move in one direction, I expect volatility along the way. The above picture helps us to see what to expect 🙂
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SPX- After a nice multi week rally, I have been saying that we are due for a pull back. I do not think that the 3 day pull back that we got is all that we will get, even though that was a reversal candle on Thursday. We are at resistance for 1 thing, and ...
Read MoreThe markets have a way of maintaining themselves, and that is through corrections. I believe we have started a few 'corrections' now. Any pain from these corrections should be short lived this week, since the markets are actually closed Friday in the U.S. Today is the last trading day of the week. Lets take a look at the markets.
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SPX - I have been pointing out this rising bear wedge for a while, expecting a correction. I believe that it has started.
The Dow looks the same
Read MoreIf you've heard of 3D Printers, raise your hand. Not a whole lot changed in the markets Tuesday, so after a quick review, this is one area that we'll discuss today...
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SPX - No Change in my outlook from the past few reports. I expect that this daily cycle is topping.
Read MoreThe weekend report discussed Turning Points. Though I have laid out my big picture expectations, I also mentioned that at turning points it is important to continue to examine clues from an unbiased view point. Sometimes subtle changes at turning points can either alter the bigger picture or confirm it. I discussed a few changes developing in my weekend report, so lets continue to examine any clues that may appear.
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SPX - Our run higher still resembles the run higher last fall in many ways. I am expecting a dip down into a DCL soon, but the move out of that daily cycle low is going to be important to watch. It is not time to short this market yet. As the market rises , I see a bearish wedge and lighter volume. We wait for the dip.
Usually at tops (even temporary tops) , the VIX gets down near $12 -$13. Spikes higher in the vix can lead to bottoms, and a spike lower can signal a top. The vix is low enough, but a spike lower would probably signal a temporary top.
Read MoreIt doesn't matter whether markets are rising or falling, sooner or later, they hit a turning point. We have a lot to discuss this weekend regarding those turning points, so lets dig right in...
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SPX - Whether we started a bear market or not, I still expected a strong rally when we were at recent lows. It would draw in bulls, but what comes next after 6 weeks higher?
This rally has played out pretty much as expected, but I want to point out some interesting changes in character that could affect future trades / trading.
Read MoreQuad witching can add volume and a little volatility to the trading day, so I just wanted to do a review of the markets and discuss a few trades.
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Let me start with the IWM this time. I actually like this set up for a run to the 200msa. We'll see if Quad witching helps or hinders things. This does look bullish.
I wanted to start with the IWM, because...
Read MoreNobody wants to take unnecessary risks in the market, but the saying "Nothing ventured, nothing gained" applies too. So you have heard me mention looking for "Low risk entries", but what is that? It is timing an entry where the risk to the downside is minimal, and the gain on the upside outweighs it. We will discus that further later in this report.
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SPX -Friday is Quad witching. The Fed didn't kill the markets this time, but that wasn't a very convincing push either, was it?
Read MoreIt's Fed Wednesday, and so far there is no real change here, going into that decision.
SPX - No real change in this chart, but there may be a change of character. We have the Fed decision Wednesday and Quad witching Friday to pop this above the 200sma, or drop it down to maybe the 50sma area. Tuesdays selling recovered.
Let me point out this ...
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