March11th – Weekend Wrap Up
If you have clocks that are not automatically calibrated ( Cell Phones and Computer clocks are, microwave oven clocks and wrist watches may not for example), You want to turn your clocks ahead 1 hour this morning 🙂
SPX – The expectation on a possible a-b + c-d extension is shown in green. The pull back into a dcl and further upward gains is a possible cup & handle, but this is just one idea going forward.
This would follow what we have already seen with SOX & NASDAQ
FRIDAY March 9th
Friday, the final day of trading before the weekend.
SPX – So far the SPX has not been able to push above the 50sma yet. A day 11 peak would not be a good sign for the General Markets, but I do think that this should be able to get above day 11, because…
March 7th – After The Storms
The markets have been choppy lately, and early February was really a bit stormy, but after the market storms clear away, opportunities often present themselves in the manner of trade set ups. We have been taking advantage of many of those lately.
I guess that we can’t really call yesterdays Gap down a storm of its own. Yesterday I pointed out that this is where the markets were set to open ( Purple square). Would they continue to sell off, or would they be bought back up?
SPX – You can see that the gap open did not sell off further, but steadily climbed through out the day. Adding in this area with a stop below March lows is reasonable. The SPX looks to be crawling under the 50sma, and this is common, but …
After Hours Drama
Just when you thought that it was safe to get back in the water, Gary Cohn, one of Trump’s top economic advisors, resigns. As the news came out, it spooked the markets and the Futures dropped pretty sharply. They remain down as I write this on Tuesday Night.
Usually these news events that sharply affect the markets do not leave a long lasting impression, so is this just light volume trading that is easily moving things around? Knee jerk reaction? Or is there going to be some follow through after the markets open, dropping us down to a higher low double bottom over the next couple of days? We’ll know soon enough. For now, we’ll take a look at where we were at the close on Tuesday.
SPX – The SPX remained under the 50sma, but as I mentioned yesterday, the TECH stocks were stronger at this point. The BOX gives you a visual of where ‘SPX down -30’ would open.
March 6th – Progress
SPX – Day 15 for the SPX and it is making slow progress to come up and either tag or break back above the 50sma.
However, The Tech Sector is ahead of the SPX & DJIA …
March 3rd – Where Are All The Bulls?
Almost all of the Markets have become choppy over the past few weeks, so what happened to all of the Bulls? We have found a few Bulls that seem to be moving forward, and I will discuss those in the report. The others may need to be coaxed out of the fields of consolidation, before they can enjoy a nice solid run again. Let’s take a look at what happened last week?…
SPX WEEKLY – Here we see that the bounce of the past 2 weeks has curled up the stochastics, so maybe the selling is done, but I have been expecting a test of the lows. Compare last weeks drop to what we saw out of the lows in 2015, the bounce also looks very similar, so …
SPX – If we are due for a double bottom low, next week could be another down week, as shown here where I drew in an extra candle. This would match the 2015 double bottom lows. Read the chart.
Lets take a look at the flip side.
Friday March 2
What more can we say here on a Friday? What I warned may happen does seem to be happening, and more, so let’s review…
SPX WARNING – In the weekend report I had warned using this chart that even though the General markets cleared the 50sma, 10sma , etc- We have seen re-tests of the lows in the past. Be cautious of the possible resuming of the sell off to a double bottom or more. I saw a lot of bulls buy that dip and CNBC was pretty happy about the V-Bottom.
SPX – It is only day 13, with a day 11 peak and no signs of regaining that 50sma so far. This could actually drop quite a bit if it doesn’t see buyers entering soon, this selling looks like the real deal here. I’d expect follow through, maybe a reversal and bouncing around, and difficult trading for a bit. Again, it is only day 14 Friday.
I sold my DWT to lock in profits on a 3x etf – but I do think that OIL has further to drop. Trading has been choppy, so I grabbed gains, but if this bounces I may short it again. The volume increased and this reversal candle may be similar to the one on the way down in early Feb. It didn’t reverse, it just kept dropping.
USD, GOLD, SILVER, MINERS. SO FAR YOU HAVE TO CHALK IT UP TO CHOPPY SIDEWAYS TRADING
Let’s be Honest, it would have to be a considered little bit of ‘guess work’ or maybe just ‘a few ideas of possibilities’ to discuss what the USD, GOLD, & MINERS are doing in a Friday report, considering what happened Thursday. I have several ideas of what might be happening, but we really need more time to see how things play out. It will be especially interesting to see where these sectors are lining up going into the March 21st Fed Meeting. For now I will share a few ideas and a couple of thoughts 🙂
USD #1 – When we got the ICL in September, we had a low, a bounce, and an undercut low that was the ICL. Something similar just happened, and gaining the 50sma, I mentioned that this could be the ICL.
USD #2 – The USD lost the 50sma on day 8, so was that a peak? If so, that would indicate that the USD just had another dcl and not an ICL on the 19th, with a L.T. peak here? WE NEED MORE TIME TO KNOW, but…
USD #3 – I have mentioned in the past that from ICL to ICL in the prior Intermediate Cycle, we had many months of lower lows -again and again. Look at the drop from Dec 2016 to Sept 2017, that was many months of selling.
GOLD – SO we have Gold on day 14 breaking below the daily cycle low and then putting in a bullish reversal. Please read the chart, this may be a 1/2 cycle low that actually caused a failed daily cycle. Is it an early day 14 dcl? We wouldn’t know until time passes, but it looks like it wants to bounce.
GOLD – Due to the inclusion of the holiday, this chart shows Gold on day 15. This chart is simply to show how a failed daily cycle can play out. It can bounce around, but should continue lower over time until an ICL is in place. I would picture the USD rising out of an ICL if this happens, so I am watching both. What about Miners?
Believe it or not, GOLD failed its Daily cycle, and Miners actually look Bullish (short term anyway).
I posted in the comments that I sold my Dust near the open. Why? Dust completed a measured move, so I started watching GDX after this…
GDX #1 – Miners began to sell off to the lows on pretty light morning volume. It headed into a candle of 100 million volume on Feb 9. THAT in my playbook is
1. Much less sellers at a bottom, so selling become unsustainable, and
2. A successful test of a high volume low. later as the day went on, the lows could not be broken. After that test, Miners began being bought up as the general markets sold off and volume came in on the reversal.
That is a bullish reversal, a bullish engulfing formed on the above chart, I look forward to seeing if we get follow through above that down trend line.
GDX WEEKLY – So the weekly chart shows us that this sideways chop continues for now. Miners sold off to lows and Gold did not follow in Early Feb. Thursday Gold broke Feb lows and Miners didn’t follow. We’ll see what kind of a bounce we get…
MORE ABOUT THE MINERS SOMEWHAT BULLISH ACTION THURSDAY
AG – I wrote this in the comments yesterday about AG ” AG came out with an earnings miss, I’m pretty sure, ( Revenues totaled $252.3 million, representing a 9% decrease from 2016. Mine operating earnings of $16.0 million compared to $49.2 million in 2016. ) and yet it dipped, flipped upward, and looks ready to break higher.”
Think about that: AG has been selling off for Months for apparently no reason at times. Now an earnings Miss on a sell off day, and AG cannot break the lows? In fact, we see MACD Divergence and a bullish engulfing? I bought it for now, but what an I thinking? Am I crazy?
AG BIG PICTURE IS STILL INTERESTING, but something else to consider is NSRPF …
NSRPF – Another stock that sold off relentlessly but finally found its lows. It actually avoided the early Feb sell off, and Thursdays too. MAYBE some Miners will not follow Gold anymore. MAYBE miners will begin to lead here. MAYBE miners will bottom before Gold. These NSRPF lows were January.
ABX – Even ABX looks like it put in a final capitulation low here.
FNV – Franco Nevada has been selling off for weeks. I think we have at least a temporary low here too. GOLD broke Feb lows and sellers in FNV dried up. This was a buy signal to me.
BTG – GDX / GDXJ tested lows, BTG is above the 50sma.
So what is going on here?
1. Things have been very choppy in this sector
2. It has traded sideways more months really.
3. Gold failed a daily cycle on day 14 ( 1/2 cycle low?) , and then reversed higher.
4. The USD lost the 50sma, and Miners look rather bullish with reversals and bullish engulfings, at least for the short term. Well, that is how I am going to leave it for now. We honestly need more time to know EXACTLY what is happening for sure, but in the back of my mind I have a couple of thoughts. I will mention them in the weekend report.
STEEL & ALUMINUM
Some of the Metals Stocks came roaring back after a Trump Tweet about trade Tariffs. These look like strong legitimate reversals, but you’ll have to decide if you want to trade choppy markets or sit on the sidelines until the dust really settles and things become more directional.
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CLF – Steel stocks flipped higher on excellent volume with news of the tariff proposal. I like this as a buy. See also AKS, X, STLD, NUE, etc
STLD & NUE have been buy & hold candidates for a long time.
I did do some buying of Miners and CLF since, as a technical trader, we had ‘bullish reversals’ and selling seemed to have died up in Miners for now. Everyone HATES the Miners now, or they are afraid to buy , because they feel that they will only lose money. Most are absolutely sick of the choppy trading range. I really didn’t see anyone get excited about the reversals and say that they bought in the ‘comments section’ and That is a very rare occasion. Yes, we could be just bouncing inside of that choppy trading range, so with that these trades may last a day, a few days, or more. Only time will tell for sure.
Sidenote: I was asked, ” The markets have been more active than ever the last 2 days, why do you keep disappearing from the comments section in the afternoon. It would be nice to hear your real time thoughts?” I know, I understand, and I try to be there when I am available, but at times I am away and simply using my phone when I can to view & trade. The comments section really is a voluntary bonus, an ‘extra piece of market activity’ along with the reports. I try to explain everything in the reports, and when the General markets old off, it should not have been a surprise really. That said, I have been leaving because I damaged my hand recently and had to go to urgent care and a follow up to my primary physician. If you do not want to see pictures with this story, do not read the end of this report. This is where the report about trading ends. 🙂 I will explain a bit more of why I haven’t been around to give real time feed back below. The pictures aren’t anything drastic, but they just aren’t very pretty either.
Enjoy your Friday trading, though the choppiness may continue!
~ALEX
So again: I was asked,
” The markets have been more active than ever the last 2 days, why do you keep disappearing from the comments section in the afternoon. It would be nice to hear your real time thoughts as the markets sold off?”
You’re going to be sorry that you asked 🙂
I had my hands full and, stooping forward, I slipped on a small rug & slid against my wood stove. The outside of my hand was burned and I decided to just let it heal on its own for a day. Though I cleaned it, it started to get infected as seen here. I took this picture and txted it to my wife at work Wednesday afternoon, and she scolded me to get to urgent care NOW ( So I left the comments section behind Wednesday afternoon) 🙂
The doctor decided that the hand had to be scraped clean down to the bare wound and start the healing all over again, wrap it in bacitracin, give me antibiotics and a tetanus shot. O-U-C-H! I came home & went to bed, and had a follow up yesterday afternoon …
So trust me, I would rather be in the comments section discussing a wicked market sell off, than having scabs scraped down to the flesh !
But these things do happen from time to time, so I’ll be there when I can, but the reports are written to cover my expectations for the day.
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March 1 – Choppiness
The choppiness continues, let’s take a look at what we have.
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This is a pre-market snapshot, it contains quite a bit of red so far…
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SPX – The SPX broke below the 50sma & Volume increased, so this needs to be watched carefully. Yesterday I reminded readers of my weekend reports ‘lessons’ section at the end, it is worth keeping in mind or re-reading. Day 12 peak so far.
Feb 28th – Reminders
Market chop, Pop & Drop. Let’s review the markets with an occasional reminder thrown in there too…
SPX – These markets may eventually “get over it” , but so far they seem to have something against the New Fed Chairman. It could be his discussing 3-4 interest rate hike plan for 2018. Read the chart. So far this is a day 11 gap fill above the 50sma, let’s look at the NASDAQ…
