Welcome To Quad Witching

Quad witching can add volume and a little volatility to the trading day, so I just wanted to do a review of the markets and discuss a few trades.


Let me start with the IWM this time. I actually like this set up for a run to the 200msa. We'll see if Quad witching helps or hinders things. This does look bullish.

IWM 3-17

I wanted to start with the IWM, because...

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Calculated Risks

Nobody wants to take unnecessary risks in the market, but the saying "Nothing ventured, nothing gained" applies too.  So you have heard me mention looking for "Low risk entries",  but what is that? It is timing an entry where the risk to the downside is minimal, and the gain on the upside outweighs it. We will discus that further later in this report.


SPX -Friday is Quad witching. The Fed didn't kill the markets this time, but that wasn't a very convincing push either, was it?

SPX 3-16 

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No Real Change Here

It's Fed Wednesday, and so far there is no real change here, going into that decision.


SPX -  No real change in this chart, but there may be a change of character.  We have the Fed decision Wednesday and Quad witching Friday to pop this above the 200sma, or drop it down to maybe the 50sma area.  Tuesdays selling recovered.

SPX 3-15

Let me point out this ...

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Partly Clear And Partly Cloudy

The short term trade set ups seem pretty clear, but with that Fed Wednesday Meeting rapidly approaching, the end of the week could host a number of reactions. Lets see how things are currently unfolding . 


SPX - This bearish wedge was forming last week  (March 9 chart).

SPX 3-9

The SPX did  drop quickly and recovered last week, as seen here.  Is this still a wedge though?

SPX 3-14

The Fed Mtg is approaching and could affect the outcome.

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There It Is Again

Well, after several weeks of good trading , it appears again.  Yes, I'm taking about that Elephant in the room - only this time things He's levitating as we head into the Fed Mtg this Wednesday. Lets take a look at our markets, keeping in mind that we do have a Fed Meeting this week.


SPX - I see a rising wedge and on day 20, we could drop to a 1/2 cycle low.  So we could drop heading into the Fed Wednesday or possibly see a drop after?

SPX 3-11 daily

I mentioned something important last week and I want to remind friends of that here...

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Just Follow the Pullbacks

Quick update on the Pullbacks...

SPX - Remember that Wedge from March 9 below? I still expected it to run to the 200sma , and then a drop to the 50sma in a 1/2 cycle low.

SPX 3-9

SPX - The 2 spike down days could be changing the way that lower trend line looks. The SPX has the run up /sideways/ run up/ sideways look. It is in a congested resistance area,  this as it heads into next weeks fed mtg.  That is where it bears watching  ( For strength or weakness).

SPX 3-10 Read More

Watching The Pullbacks

Have you ever noticed that when we are waiting to see if a pull back presents a buying opportunity, it  feels like price just drips down in slow motion day after day , no matter how sweet it looks? I'm feeling that now 🙂  Lets review the markets and then check out a few areas of interest.


SPX - No change from the last few reports

SPX 3-9 Read More

Can We Buy The Dips?

Yesterdays report mentioning Anti-Gravity stocks was just the right thing to start the corrections  🙂   In Energy stocks I think we were getting a bit spoiled with 70 & 80 % gains in a single trade,  but not so spoiled with giving back 20 - 25% today in BAS, LGCY, ARP, etc.  Commodities are pulling back and Miners may start joining them.  Will we be buying this dip?  Lets take a look.


SPX - My chart from yesterday. I had called for a rally , but now calling for caution. 

SPX 3-7

SPX - And we did start a little selling Tuesday. We can go higher since we are still inside of that wedge, but eventually I expect a drop to at least the 50sma.

SPX 3-8 b Read More

Anti Gravity

The stocks that we have been trading / investing in have been defying gravity for weeks. The fact that we are catching them right at the lows gives us time to enjoy the ride and nit worry about a short term pullback. So far, a short term pullback is rather hard to come by. Lets review the markets and look for more set ups.

SPX - It may be early in the investor cycle, but this doesnt look ready to power higher to me. I expect the markets to fail at resistance, at least short term.

SPX 3-7 Read More

Anything Else?

Well, the past several weeks have been excellent for trading , and we have seriously had reasons to celebrate, catching the lows in various sectors. All good things come to an end, so is it that time yet? Can we keep the celebration going?  lets review!


SPX ( or SPY) - A few weeks ago I was calling for a rally to get the bulls excited. Those who wanted to play it long should now be a bit more cautious short term. We have reached the spy gap, using a wedge to transport us there. The 200sma is there on the spx too 😉

SPY 3-4

Lets look at  another indication that the SPX is at least short term topping, and we'll then look at a longer term weekly SPX chart.

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