Friday- Option Expiration And Rotten Fruitage

Its option expiration and often we get a large push of volume . The markets are looking  more and more like they are heading in the direction that I have been calling for.

I pointed this out on Jan 6


It has followed that exact path and this is what I am thinking going forward...

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Hanging In There?

Volatility is here and the markets are rocking and rolling.  If you have been reading my thoughts here,  you know which ones are 'Buy the dips' and which are not.   Lets review.


I said that I was interested in this , for one thing. A break above 22 would be 'Interesting' to say the least. Do you know where we are now?


Well, the markets gapped down big yesterday and  and thus Vix gapped open to 24 recently and then sold off back under that line to $21.50 yesterday .  Is that the end of it?

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This message is an afternoon update. 

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Was That A Curve Ball?

Judging by the intensity on that pitchers face?  I'd say he's throwing some heat, maybe a fastball.   When it comes to Metals and Miners , however, I think many  were  fooled the recent action  and in that case  you may hear them say,  "It really  threw me a curve ball! "   Understandably , the past few years in Metals and miners have been ugly for the bulls, but there were definitely a number of factors that helped us here at Chartfreak to navigate the recent lows, and identify that this was NOT a break down.   Its slowly  becoming clearer to all that  Miners were telling the story and Metals were not forming a bear flag as some suspected.  Metals have been  putting in some constructive lows.   The move higher might become rather swift  at this point too , and I'll show you what I mean in this report, but the real question is... Are these rallies going to last?  Or should we be alert to future downside?  We'll address that too.  To the Charts!!

First the general markets. please read this chart .


Not much has changed in my thinking about the possibilities for the general markets going forward, lets review...

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Looking for a Miner?

Are you looking for another miner?


I have been posting some good buy set ups, and they have played out very well. If you missed them or I know that  some have even told me that they took profits recently, only to see them continue higher. What to do?   Look for another decent "set up".  SO I want to share a some  good looking  set ups here with you now.

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Week ending Jan 9 Review

I like to look back at the end of each week and just see if the charts are telling us anything new. Are they confirming what we  expected ? Are there new implications?  Is there something there can boosts our confidence moving forward?  This week , I see all of the above . Lets review .

Lets take a look at the $USD for a moment- practically straight up


Ooops, wrong image, but they look the same. Here is the correct chart of the $USD

$USD JAN 9  

Is it really going to pause? Well, lets look at a few other charts ...

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Weeks ago I mentioned that sometimes when the markets are breaking to new highs on weakness, it  can cause volatility and lack of direction. Do you feel that we are seeing that now?  This chart from DEC 23 showed what I was referring to as we broke to new highs with weakness. I was afraid that we might be heading there again.

SPX dec 23

Its can be hard to  make good Money when the volatility has markets ( say the Dow for example ) moving up & down 100's of points daily.  Down 300 , up 200, down 300, up 320, down 250,  etc etc etc .   Yesterday the Markets re-gained the 50sma and today they are giving it up again.   Volume is  a tad heavyish so far today and I am again watching  the close to see if we get an idea what to expect going forward...

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JAN 8 Follow up / Quick Turns

Well I was hoping I could use this picture again ,  what a Fast moving beauty!    : )     Actually , speaking of fast moves ,  this is an update to this mornings post.  As we watch things unfold here , and I mentioned what I was looking for, I hope you are seeing what I am seeing.

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Nothing Has Changed

You could basically read my last few reports and get the same results.  Even though the numbers have changed and the moves are taking place, my outlook hasnt changed.

Here is yesterdays wkly chart of SPX  - we expected a move higher, but a bounce or a buy the dip recovery?


I thought that the markets looked a little 'different' this time, so I mentioned that it could 'fail' .  Yesterday we did have a reversal

And CNBC  had a lot of people on saying, "You just have to Buy the Dips. Its been working for years now! "  Is THAT what I mean when I say nothing has changed?...

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Markets dont go straight up or down

  ( yes I've seen the $USD and Oil Lately    )  Well actually,  they haven't been 100% straight up or down either. We expect Pullbacks , consolidations,  dips, etc . Even the straight up dollar move wasn't straight up , as you can see here in my Jan 2 chart, there were dips ...

$USD JAN 2  

Pullbacks  happen all the time, and the key is to examine them separately and look for opportunity. Lets discuss pullbacks ...

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