APRIL 2016 – REVIEWING THAT BIG PICTURE

Here at Chartfreak,  we have always discussed the day to day market movements,  trade set ups, and the bigger picture where things seem to be heading as time goes by.  So in this weekend report, lets discuss the various sectors of the markets again, short term and the Big Picture scenarios. 

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SPX QUARTERLY - If you were subscribing back in January, you may recall this chart.  I was pointing out the break below certain critical areas at prior tops never recovered, and I said we would watch these Quarterly, Monthly and Weekly.

SPX QUARTERLY Read More

April 1 – Jobs

The Jobs report was released and I dont really see anything that I didn't expect at this point. Since it is the last trading day of the week, I'm just here to do a quick review.

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SPX -  This was the chart in the Thursday report. I expected a pullback with that toppy candle Wednesday. It may not be a huge pullback, I do expect another run higher in the next daily cycle.

SPX 3-30 Read More

Wednesday March 30 report

The various sectors of the markets have been a bit tricky to identify strength-wise in the short term. I'll show you what I mean...

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SPX - With this set up,  I wondered if we saw an   Early dcl.  We had the trend line break and a move below the 10sma. If THAT shallow pull back is all we got, this little rally could become quite the threat moving higher.

SPX 3-29

But...

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She Said What?

I heard that Janet Yellen had lunch on Tuesday and spoke quite a bit about...never mind, lets just say that she spoke quite a bit.

Some things that I heard seemed to contradict other things that she said, but we see from the moves mid day onward,  the markets received it positively.  There are some very interesting developments...

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March 28 – Bouncing Sideways

Monday saw many areas of the markets doing pretty much what was expected,  pulling back, consolidating, and just plain ole bouncing around.

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Going Forward

Lets discuss what I think we are going to see going forward from here.  Just like we have seen in the past, it will NOT be a straight move in one direction, I expect volatility along the way.  The above picture helps us to see what to expect 🙂

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SPX-  After a nice multi week rally,  I have been saying that we are due for a pull back. I do not think that the 3 day pull back that we got is all that we will get, even though that was a reversal candle on Thursday. We are at resistance for 1 thing, and ...

SPX open page Read More

March 24 – Corrections

The markets have a way of maintaining themselves, and that is through corrections. I believe we have started a few 'corrections' now. Any pain from these corrections should be short lived this week, since the markets are actually closed Friday in the U.S.   Today is the last trading day of the week. Lets take a look at the markets.

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SPX - I have been pointing out this rising bear wedge for a while, expecting a correction. I believe that it has started.

SPX 3-23

The Dow looks the same

DJIA 3-23 Read More

3 D

If you've heard of 3D Printers, raise your hand.  Not a whole lot changed in the markets Tuesday,  so after a quick review, this is one area that we'll discuss today...

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SPX - No Change in my outlook from the past few reports. I expect that this daily cycle is topping.

SPX 3-22 Read More

Open To Debate

The weekend report discussed Turning Points. Though I have laid out my big picture expectations, I also mentioned that at turning points it is important to continue to examine clues from an unbiased view point. Sometimes subtle changes at turning points can either alter the bigger picture or confirm it.  I discussed a few changes developing in my weekend report, so lets continue to examine any clues that may appear.

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SPX - Our run higher still resembles the run higher last fall in many ways. I am expecting a dip down into a DCL soon,  but the move out of that daily cycle low is going to be important to watch. It is not time to short this market yet. As the market rises , I see a bearish wedge and lighter volume. We wait for the dip.

SPX 3-21

Usually at tops  (even temporary tops) , the VIX gets down near $12 -$13. Spikes higher in the vix can lead to bottoms, and a spike lower can signal a top. The vix is low enough, but a spike lower would probably signal a temporary top.

VIX 3-21 Read More

The Turning Point

It doesn't matter whether markets are rising or falling, sooner or later, they hit a turning point. We have a lot to discuss this weekend regarding those turning points, so lets dig right in...

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SPX - Whether we started a bear market or not, I still expected a strong rally when we were at recent lows. It would draw in bulls, but what comes next after 6 weeks higher?

SPX 3-18 wkly

This rally has played out pretty much as expected, but I want to point out some interesting changes in character that could affect future trades / trading.

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