Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

I’m looking at $NATGAS

May 23, 2014 /12 Comments/in , /by

MAY 23   $NATGAS

 

  I am looking at $NATGAS after its extremely bullish run up January & February.   Last week a friend of mine POLY  of The Financial Tap.com mentioned it as a possible short candidate a week ago, but I saw things a little differently . I was looking at $NATGAS close up & shared this chart,showing possible support & MACD divergence . Notice also, however, the 50sma overhead "Could" act as  possible resistance. I was obviously thinking it could be a "Long".

 

NATGAS DIVEREGENCE

I've said this many times...you cant argue with the markets, you must change with them if what you think you are seeing changes. Well POLY may have been early & correct in what he was seeing. Another friend of mine, Steve Chapman of The Refined Investor also noted NATGAS as a possible short  , so I re-visited the charts and low & behold I noticed that NATGAS was rejected at the 50sma  & the RSI 50% also turned down. (See the chart below, click to enlarge) .

 

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Computers are painting charts?

May 22, 2014 /14 Comments/in , /by

May 22

 

Computers are painting the charts? I'll believe that when I see Elephants painting Elephants!  Oh wait- I HAVE seen that. So 'IF' they have hired a bunch of tech savvy students to run algorithms to "Paint the Charts" into forming Head & Shoulder patterns that break upwards and the MACD crossing down only to see prices spikes up after many go short, etc , then they're doing an AWESOME job in the P.M. markets.  I've been Bullish ,flipped to bearish , and now I'm seeing signs of bullishness again. Lets look at the charts and then review some OTHER areas of possible trades setting up too.

 

$GOLD

 

$GOLD MAY 21

 

So far, when it comes to the expected drop , they haven't been able to sell it off. PRICE , RSI & MACD in GOLD have formed higher lows so far. A close above the 50sma is Bullish I.M.O.

 

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CAN WE TALK?

May 9, 2014 /17 Comments/in , /by

FRIDAY  MAY 9  

Hi , This is me  Download your free smiley   - Above you'll see a picture of a Bear.  See the difference?  I am not a bear. I just thought that I should clear that up, because after my last report I was asked , "Why are you a bear?"

Really I am not a bear when it comes to Gold & Miners, but taking things step - by - step , there was simply a little downside coming and I'm not so sure that its done yet.   I DO see both bullish and not so bullish things in the charts at the end of this week, so how about a quick review.

 

GDX WEEKLY -  Everybody is staring at this pattern, so I almost feel like it wont quite play out the way it seems...but here is how it is set up anyways. Inverse H&S.  For now, I must say that a weekly chart with price  UNDER THE 10WMA  struggles.  Notice what GDX did the past few weeks under the 10WMA.

And what does that Stochatics tell you?

 

GDX WEEKLY

And there is more...

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How Deep is that??

May 7, 2014 in , /by

 MAY 7  (Intraday thoughts)

Lets not find out the hard way. When Gold / Miners are acting correctly , Trading can be profitable. Have you ever traded them when they get caught up in a sell off though? I mean a REAL SELL OFF? They pick up speed and start defying support levels , Moving avergaes, over sold markers, and so on. We may be starting one of those now, so I wanted to point out a few reasons why I think that that may be.

 

GDX DAILY -  we just lost support of the 10 & 20 sma this morning. That was my line in the sand, especially with the Stochastics overbought and the R.S.I. rejecting 50 again  (REMEMBER- THIS WAS JUST AFTER THE DOLLAR WAS GETTING CRUSHED YESTERDAY).

 

GDX DAILY may 7 also

 

I was holding JNUG, but flipped to JDST this a.m.--I believe we may see Metals / Miners accelerate in their selling - lets discuss why and look at a few POSSIBLE targets along the way.

 

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Thinking Out Loud

May 2, 2014 /4 Comments/in , /by

SUNDAY MAY 4  7 Charts Update on Metals/Miners

 

I'm still short term Bullish, long term 'Cautious'.  We have to be. The charts are shaping up nicely, but I'm always open to further lows into the Summer months. This caused me to want to look at Mostly weekly charts for this update. I want to keep commentary fairly brief and let you allow the charts to do the talking.

 

GDX WEEKLY- Notice how it Lost the 30WMA in the fall of 2012. It has regained and remained above it. It is something to watch. Will it hold Or will a perfect Inverse H&S form into the summer??

 

GDX WEEKELY

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SMOOOOTH SAILING! (w/Update)

April 25, 2014 /4 Comments/in , /by

APRIL 26 (Saturday Update added here)

In Trending markets, investing with a bias can be profitable.  At other times, however, like possible turning points or periods of volatility, you have to be willing to change direction FAST and Leave out any BIAS  until direction is established.  That said, lets quickly review the recent action in GDX. 

After a nice Dec to March Bull run in GDX , we got a false break out and an Impulsive drop. A tag of the 50sma & rejection (while Gold was up & $USD was down) alerted us to go short. THIS CHART shows that I thought we were in for another impulsive wave down.

 

GDX APRIL 14

 

THAT was April 14th, the Short was profitable.  Since then, my April 25th report (which can be read following this one) showed that GDX is possibly morphing into a long position?    I went long and here is my update of GDX from Fridays close---

Is is smooth sailing yet???Ummm.....

 

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-PLEASE DONT SHOOT THE MESSENGER-

April 20, 2014 /11 Comments/in , /by

UPDATE  4/23/2014 

 

POSSIBLY THE MOST IMPORTANT CHART FOR GOLD BUGS/ TRADERS  TO BE WATCHING I.M.H.O.

We just had a "WATERFALL" type sell off in MARCH.  Many started HATING MINERS again.  THAT sentiment is now turning to ,  "I NEED TO BUY THIS REVERSAL OR MISS THE MOVE".    THIS is what I am watching for, this chart should be Noted.

The prior "waterfall" sell offs last Fall DIDNT get above the 9 sma more than 1 time per month.  We already saw that in April,  So if we are going to have another leg down--- IT May be time to Fasten our seat belts?   Question

 

GDX WATERFALL SELL OFFS

 

From here it's easy-  as I write , we are currently right at the 9 S.M.A. , so its already  Show Time.  Can we break thru?  Or will it be held down here again?  Its definitely what I am watching.  ( Click chart to enlarge )

 

GDX LIVE April 23

Again...Please dont shoot the Messenger ,  I am just here trying to help people in their investing day. Best wishes to all Way To Go

 

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WHAT DO YOU SEE HERE?

April 15, 2014 /14 Comments/in , /by

APRIL 15    Some  see a BULL, but look closely , some see 2 men arguing whether its really a Bull.  Well ,if you follow me  on Twitter  you know that for a short while now I have posted charts calling for a drop in GOLD & especially the Miners GDX/GDXJ.   I still think the GOLD Bull is alive, but even strong Bull markets experience healthy corrections to lower sentiment and kick out the weaker hands.

 

In calling for a drop here, I have had a few Gold Bulls say that we recently had a 'double bottom', so another drop here and the Bull could be over. I was also told we'll crash thru last Junes lows , because "There is no such thing as a double bottom"!

Well, I found something that blew my mind Giving thumbs up animated emoticon and I wanted to share it with you. PLEASE STUDY & MEMORIZE THE SHAPE OF THE GOLD (GLD) WEEKLY CHART BELOW.  FOLLOW 1-5 on the right hand side, before moving on ...(Click chart to enlarge)

 

GLD PATTERN

The RUN UP, the TRIANGLE, the false break upward, the drop thru support, the double bottom...

-if we drop again,  MUST WE CRASH THRU JUNE 2013 LOWS?

-Is there really  "NO SUCH THING AS A TRIPLE BOTTOM"??

 

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UPDATE to my last post

April 11, 2014 /21 Comments/in , /by

APRIL 11, 2014 -  Please review my last report , it basically is still quite valid. I had some possible downside targets that havent been met yet (For ex: QQQ could visit the 200Sma), however with 'bounces' along the way and the "Should I 'Buy The Dip'? mode firmly in peoples minds- is it really just a roll of the Dice?

No.   BUY-SELL-HOLD is still a personal decision based on your trading/ investing goals...and our Energy & Steel  trades from weeks ago are still green, but for others - Tech stocks/Momo trades are a mess. Lets review a few charts ...

QQQ April 10

 

Nimble Traders can look for lower risk entries based on probabilities ( like oversold areas and trendline/moving average support,etc)  but in waterfall sell offs , even these can fail and one should not trade heavy sell offs unless they can monitor their trades intraday.

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The Phone Lines were ringing off the hook!!

April 8, 2014 in , /by

Well, to be honest, I got 2 requests on the Markets in general, but they are just as important to me Thumbs up animated emoticon

The Question was , "Did you see a pullback in the Markets approaching and is that why you moved to the Energy Sector?  If so, what did you see?"  

The answer is ,

"I did think the markets were toppy and in need of a pullback, and I expect a bounce soon, but It does not look like the downside is complete so far. (Recall my chart 2 posts back saying "Sell in May, Go away?").

The second part is , "No, I just entered the Energy sector because using tech Analysis, it was still 'set up properly'.  It also did withstand the heat recently."

 

Here is what I was looking at on March 21 . There was weakness in BOTH the weekly and daily charts ($1800 target?)

$SPX WEEKLY

 

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