Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

AUG 13, 2014     History and rumor has it that in summer month of AUGUST  the Markets  are as slow as a Turtle  ! Believing this to be true, I signed up to do  some charity work that will take up much of my spare time during this month.  I  figured that during this 'low volume, Slow summer month",  when Congress leaves Washington and Fund Managers all go on vacation,  I too could take a break & would keep busy with other pursuits and  post occasionally when things present themselves.  SURPRISE!! We have faster Turtles this Aug.  The Markets seem pretty active, with a correction as July Ended, so lets just look at a few things.

IWM ( & RUT) had warning signs of a double top

Lately this has been a buying opportunity , as the "Buy The Dips, Sell The Rips" mantra has proven effective.  What about now?  How do  the Nasdaq and the $SPX  currently look ?

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August 4 2014 -   Well, after looking at the weekly charts of Metals, Miners and the $USD...I would say that the Good News is that we can expect a Bounce In $Gold & Miners short term,  but does that mean there's Bad News Too?   To the Charts!

The $USD has had a nice run, it is a bit extended now.  

Using both daily cycles timing and Tech Analysis, I think it is due for a rest.

You can also see from that chart above in the middle column that a wedge has formed in Gold...so what does this indicate?

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July 26  Weekend thoughts     Well, after the final day of the week, I would say that the reversal in the Metals Mkts Friday  into the close grew a tiny bit more like a Bull.   A baby bull.  It APPEARS to be a bullish reversal, but there are still some cautionary notes and things to watch for....lets have a look.

GOLD -  At this point it looks like it is playing out exactly as I mentioned in my last 3 write ups.  A Bullhorn formed, a run of the stops below $1292, bounced off of the 200sma...a reversal.

Perfect right?  Well...caution remains because there are other factors to consider...

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JULY 24 -  Pre mkt    

I spent some time yesterday researching, since we are at a point where some people are ready to throw in the towel in GOLD , others arent.

Some are saying that "GOLD is weak here (And miners) and if this were a 2nd daily cycle...it should have blasted off by now. It has no follow through & is too weak."   Others even think  (And it could be)  that "Maybe a 2nd DCycle may not have started yet...maybe we are still in an extended 1st DCycle?"  I began to wonder myself too.  Since We have no overhead trend line break, it IS a possibility that we are still in the 1st DCycle , even  if they "Run the stops " here in GOLD and it dips below $1292. It could recover.  We are selling off pre-mkt,  as mntioned yesterday, there are signs of weakness, however,  I am not THAT concerned yet.   

$GOLD - So Lets look at some charts-

GOLD  - is  selling off in pre mkt , but this chart shows that its not that bad. Its still a normal pullback using Technical Analysis, so we'll keep our eyes on things.

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July 20  -   Please read my last report and you'll see how I was viewing things for the Metals and Miners market.  Then the next question is :   "Well, that report was July 17 and things got a little "whippy" since then,  are we still on track?"    The short answer is,  "Yes, so far it was a little whippy, but we are still on track."   As a review, I was expecting Metals and Miners to begin a 2nd leg higher, similar to what we saw at the June 2013 lows ( 2 legs up) and Dec 2013 lows. Using the GDX and the December 2013 run up -  I used this chart (Below) to help us visualize what the move could look like.  Now I want to just do a quick update .

   Look again at my last report and I said that  If the Miners gap down Friday, you may want to add a position in one of your favorite miners, because they may reverse & start upward.  Well, Friday the miners DID gap down and stayed down almost all day, finally beginning to recover into the close with a reversal.   That was  (To me)  important because...

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