Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

BOTTOM HUNTING PART 2

October 14, 2014 /56 Comments/in , /by

OCT 14, 2014   Since pointing out a few of the things that I look for to "Indicate" a possible trade-able bottom is near, we have had some improvement and I wanted to point those things out. I also have received concerns (Interesting) that some feel they may be missing the move if they havent taken a position, others who have are feeling anxious a bit too ,that  'it's not working' . That seems to lead to questions like ,

1. "Are things O.K., feels like we are just going sideways?"

2. Doesnt this look like a possible bear flag?

               And

3. "Do you think it's too late?"  

4. "Should I just jump in now?"

 

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BOTTOM HUNTING

October 13, 2014 /25 Comments/in , /by

October 13  2014

     Often you will hear the expression  "Dont try to catch a falling knife" when a sector or stock is relentlessly selling off. In the past few years , we have seen it repeatedly happen in the Precious Metals sector, and most of you are ware that we had some significant lows in place on June 2013, Dec 2013, May 2014.   I have been saying that I think we are at another significant low  (If you follow Cycles, you know it as an ICL) .   Is it possible that we could go lower, instead of trading off the current lows put in after last weeks FED MINUTES?   Of course, but are there ways to look at  - actually  look INTO -  the markets,  and try to gain some insights as to what may be currently happening.  I want to show you what I look at in times like these...it is by no means guess work. Starting with SILVER

 

Starting with SILVERS break down, most see it as a "Continuation" pattern  (And it may be).

 

SILVER continuation

 

Sometimes a move like that can just "Run the stops" set at those levels to "Shake out" weak hands. If THAT was the case, you would expect SILVER to do more than just "Back test" that broken floor. Look at my next chart of Silver Below...

 

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For Any Who Followed This Trade

October 10, 2014 in , /by

OCT 10    Midday  Sold Partial position in APT,  liberal stop set on the rest .        I dont usually post my “Sells” , I leave it to the reader to trade at their own risk / reward formula.  I just wanted to point out that THIS  is now extended 150% above the 50sma, […]

ATTENTION ALL TRADERS

October 10, 2014 /1 Comment/in , /by

OCT 10     —Have you ever been skating on ice and suddenly you notice a big crack?  How about a HUGE CRACK?  We may want to keep that  PANIC  BUTTON  handy.  THIS just raised its ugly head.                                                                            CAUTION WARRANTED!

No – Not Yet

October 10, 2014 /8 Comments/in , /by

Oct 10,2014     As I start writing before 7 a.m.,  Futures are down quite a bit 

   I Got a funny email, it said,  "With this sell off- When will you know that you're wrong?"  - LOL  Now I assume that the writer just worded that wrong and was really trying to say, "When would you know if this sell off was more than the normal correction that you expected?"  OR   Was that just a  Freudian slip  and the writer is telling me I AM wrong - when are you going to know that ?     Let me put it this way, I am watching closely and the CNBC TOPIC is "Is this more than a normal correction? Or Is this going to be a Panic Sell off?

When everyone expects it before it happens, and FEAR is everywhere, they are usually wrong.  The best way to follow it is....TO THE CHARTS!!

QQQ still looks strong. This is NOT a chart of Weakness (So Far)

 

QQQ Sell Off

 

Despite the cries of things getting scary - The QQQ on this next chart looks like every other correction before a strong rally

 

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WELCOME BACK!

October 9, 2014 /8 Comments/in , /by

Oct 9, 2014 

   WELL!!!   I thought that I should offer up an idea or two intraday since the color RED is the color of the day . I do NOT want to become a  'BUY & HOLD' or 'WISH & HOPE' kind of trader...I look to see if I can see whats happening and when a trade starts to act in a way that I didnt expect, I have to try my best to numb the "EMOTIONS" and just look at the facts. So I snapped this PIC of an intraday chart ,  the sell off of GDX today.

  Its NOT meant to be grasping at straws or "HOPING" I'm right...its just what is happening , What I see right now.

 

GDX 50 percent

 

   As you can see, GDX and GDXJ have pulled back to very 'RED' for the day

- But they are only about 1/2 way into that move off of Lows yesterday, almost a "Test" of the top of a cup.

 

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NOT AGAIN?

October 9, 2014 /17 Comments/in , /by

OCT 9, 2014  

  WAIT! Is the train leaving the station again?  Should I jump on - or - Is this quick reversal just a Fed induced pipe dream , only to suck in longs and pull the rug out from under them?  Those are good questions and who can know for sure? No one, really.  HOWEVER  if we look for "Clues" - maybe it can shed light on the matter. I am going to continue on the theme that I started in the report  entitled " Its An Illusions"  (Click "illusions" to read it)   Illusions .

In that report , I was discussing how it seems that while everyone is being encouraged to "Look at GOLD & SILVER" crashing, Some  Miners were holding up, apparently  being accumulated. I want to re-visit that idea here, since the selling has escalated since I wrote that on Sept 25th, 2 weeks ago. Have things changed much? Lets see....

 

GDX certainly has joined in the sell off type move. You can see it bleeding 5 weeks in a row here

(This wkly chart was as of last week).

 

GDX WEEKLY

 

And look at this chart below! 

 

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“TIMING”!

October 8, 2014 /45 Comments/in , /by

Oct 8, 2014     "Timing Is Everything" 

  - Have you ever heard that expression? Well today, Timing was both Good and Bad for me, but thankfully for me (and everyone else too)...there is always a little more time.   I was drawing up charts this morning for another  Bullish Report. This was how my day started and how Timing was both Good and Bad.  In this weekends report here at Chartfreak, I was writing about expecting a market reversal higher. SO MANY people were calling for a steep sell off. 'October Crash' I kept hearing and I wrote about the group think in the weekend report.  I heard that a 20% correction was coming on CNBC yesterday and I saw this sentiment reading below   (THANKS TO TICKER SENSE) as too bearish.  I just cant get comfortable following the crowd .

 

 

TICKER SENSE

 

 

 And talk about BEARISH -  Metals & Miners were going to $800 to $1000 within a month.  I have been mentioning that I expect those MEANINGFUL Lows to come anytime now, and for several reasons.   Yes, Selling could continue later, but I feel that we are at an exhaustion point in both Cycle "Timing" and other areas.    But wait- What report? I didnt post a report this morning, did I? ...

 

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WATCHLIST

October 7, 2014 /14 Comments/in , /by

OCT 7, 2014 

 

I thought I would just throw a couple of ideas out there, possibly  for your watchlist if you have one. In my last report I pointed out the set up in ZEN as looking like this (Chart below). Notice that, as an I.P.O. it experienced rapid buying and then just went sideways (no Sellers) consolidating those initial gains. Once you break above that area, another run up can take place, since no one is selling , everyone is along for the ride, and momentum buyers can jump in. I've seen this pattern a lot, and as long as a company is doing well, the results can be higher prices.

 

ZEN

 

With that in mind, take a look at this next chart...

 

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GRACE UNDER PRESSURE

October 6, 2014 /10 Comments/in , /by

OCT 5  weekend report  

   I love the way the above picture captures the theme of GRACE UNDER PRESSURE  ( Picture Credit to Rush & Hugh Syme).

  Ermest Hemmingway wrote that "Courage is Grace under Pressure" and for the past few weeks, the markets began selling off,  thus pressuring  'buy & hold' investors.  Remaining Graceful while enduring the "Pressure' of the markets selling off allows one the "Courage" to make good decisions.  I feel that most readers here are that way.  For protection , We actually trade with stops in place  ( be it mental or a be it a hard stop),  looking  forward to pullbacks  in hopes of buying at 'discount prices'.   While I haven't see all out panic,I have seen CNBC  interviewing many lately asking,  "Is this it?  Have the Markets topped & is October going to be the month of a crash?" 

The question is...."What were you doing?"

   On Thursday , OCT 1 , I Tweeted this SPY CHART , pointing out OCT 2013 selling off to the 26 WMA (Red line) . Would we get that 193 area ?

 

SPY

 

   We Did get that red line  (193) and it looks to have reversed.  Yay for the chart & reliability  of these markets so far.

 

SPY OCT 3

 

If you bought a nice set up in that reversal ,  you displayed Courage and  Grace under Pressure...

 

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