Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Dont worry – There’ll Be Another One

June 13, 2014 /8 Comments/in , /by

JUNE 13 -  Update

If you had a chance to read my last 2 reports discussing Gold/Miners , then you know I was expecting a low almost immediately and possibly even what we call an ICL  (A Very Meaningful Low that produces a Nice invest-able rally).  Almost EVERY newsletter I read insisted that we remember that due to Golds "Seasonality" and that "Gold always bottoms in the Summer", we should   'go short' or wait.    '$Gold $1000.00  ' was and still is everywhere.   As someone who likes to be a contrarian, I posted this chart to show that anything is possible  ( Notice that $HUI Bottomed 2 yrs in a row in MAY)  and  I mentioned that I was seeing a bottom closing in rapidly.  Many Miners were forming Lows using various indicators that I use and Bases were forming also.  My last report advised that I was getting  ready for a rally, and you may want to think twice about shorting.

 

MINERS bottomed in MAY 2 yrs in a row-

 

DOUBLE BOTTOM

 

Immediately after posting my report , we saw a rather striking Rally in Miners, especially Juniors.  Some say its "Only short covering", is it?  Will it pullback soon?  Should I go short, or just buy a pullback? Was THIS the Train leaving the station & did I miss it??  Lets review...

 

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Lets Look At GOLD For A Minute

June 10, 2014 /11 Comments/in , /by

June 10 2014     Questions - Questions - Questions! There are many when it comes to the illusive Precious Metals Market!  Will it Bottom this summer? Has it bottomed yet? Is the Bear Sell off done or are we going to $1000.00?  Honestly, I dont think anyone can know the answers to those questions for certain , so instead of emphatically insisting that "Its this..."  or  "Its that...",  Lets just look at some charts and discuss a few things that we can look for (And maybe we should look out for) going forward.

 

First - Most know from prior reports (See the Learning Patience article) that I had been expecting a low here, and we are there now. I am uncertain, however, as to whether its THE MEANINGFUL LOW that I expect with a great rally to follow, or just a bounce & one more drop to that ICL (The meaningful Low) .   For starters we are still in this down trend, so even if if we bounce as far as $1290 , $Gold could still drop further.

 

$GOLD

If we start to drop here & now, even spike down, do you want to go short? You may want to consider this first...

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Caution: Sometimes It only looks comfortable

June 9, 2014 /11 Comments/in , /by

June 9,2014   ...  Continuation of the earlier report  The reason that I want to mention possible long set ups (Even though I expect a dip in the major indexes)  is that    1. Some do not like to short the markets , and they've been very difficult to short anyways.      2. if the Markets do correct, these set ups can be checked during the correction for possible strength - IF they just go sideways or pull back mildly AND  the Markets just put in  a normal correction, they may become buy candidates . I also expect MANY MORE set ups will develop as overextended rallies in individual equities correct.  I will cover those in the future.      At this point, please note Biotech...

 

BIOTECH - The "report" is written on the charts  (May pull back with the markets, though it did already Correct strongly) I would expect it to return to the break out around the 50sma

 

IBB

 

After that HUGE correction...Some Biotechs are recovering

 

LCI

 

So Are there others  setting up bases & breaking upwards too ??

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Sometimes it only looks comfortable

June 9, 2014 in , /by

June 9,2014    I see a lot of trading set ups in the markets lately, various sectors too, but am I comfortable taking them? MAYBE as trades, but please be careful and don't get TOO comfortable.  Like the Hammock above, These markets may look comfortable place to jump up on & rest (as they rise day after day) , but they are getting extended- and even nice set ups  could fall through if a sell off starts.   I am expecting a sell off  (Not sure how much) sooner than later.

 

   I TWEETED these charts last week , thinking that we would get a pullback, but they paused or dipped for 2 days and UP UP UP  they went .

 

$TRAN

QQQ

Now they are again overextended...

 

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Learning To be Patient

May 31, 2014 /15 Comments/in , /by

MAY 30  

  I've been watching the Precious Metals sector again. As a short term Trader , it may be possible to trade here and there, but with the recent sideways moves and triangle formation, longer term Investors waiting for a TREND have likely been forced to learn patience.  Like our little trooper in training above, self discipline will gain the bigger reward in the long run for most.  The TREND.

This weekend, I hope to do less writing & More charts , so lets see whats new !!! Download your free smiley

Does EVERYBODY that you know say that  they cant wait for GOLDS seasonal Summer Lows? A "TEST" of last summers lows? I've heard it A LOT, And the C.O.T. levels this Tuesday would seem to imply the same, but I still want to look at ALL possibilities. Here are a couple of charts to start us off...

 

MANY FEEL GOLD SUMMER LOWS

 

However, Lets just imagine what would happen if this occurred

 

GOLD CONTRARIAN

 

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Thats Worth A Double Take

May 27, 2014 in , /by

May 27  

As I speak , Gold is down $13. Is it breaking down from this triangle pattern that has formed over the past month? Quite possible-   Most have heard that a triangle pattern is a "continuation pattern" and that follow thru is in the direction that the pattern started in.    So Question is:  Was Gold moving UP or DOWN when it started the Triangle??  Many expect GOLD to continue DOWN from here, since it appears that it entered this triangle as it headed down .

 

GOLD CONTINUES

 

FOR EX: This is what the continuation pattern looks like in action. Heading up into the triangle pattern, it broke out upside.

 

continue

EVEN THOUGH GOLD is selling off now , and looks to be follow thru to the downside, I wanted to point out something that I found interesting and AT LEAST WORTH A DOUBLE TAKE

 

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I’m looking at $NATGAS

May 23, 2014 /12 Comments/in , /by

MAY 23   $NATGAS

 

  I am looking at $NATGAS after its extremely bullish run up January & February.   Last week a friend of mine POLY  of The Financial Tap.com mentioned it as a possible short candidate a week ago, but I saw things a little differently . I was looking at $NATGAS close up & shared this chart,showing possible support & MACD divergence . Notice also, however, the 50sma overhead "Could" act as  possible resistance. I was obviously thinking it could be a "Long".

 

NATGAS DIVEREGENCE

I've said this many times...you cant argue with the markets, you must change with them if what you think you are seeing changes. Well POLY may have been early & correct in what he was seeing. Another friend of mine, Steve Chapman of The Refined Investor also noted NATGAS as a possible short  , so I re-visited the charts and low & behold I noticed that NATGAS was rejected at the 50sma  & the RSI 50% also turned down. (See the chart below, click to enlarge) .

 

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Computers are painting charts?

May 22, 2014 /14 Comments/in , /by

May 22

 

Computers are painting the charts? I'll believe that when I see Elephants painting Elephants!  Oh wait- I HAVE seen that. So 'IF' they have hired a bunch of tech savvy students to run algorithms to "Paint the Charts" into forming Head & Shoulder patterns that break upwards and the MACD crossing down only to see prices spikes up after many go short, etc , then they're doing an AWESOME job in the P.M. markets.  I've been Bullish ,flipped to bearish , and now I'm seeing signs of bullishness again. Lets look at the charts and then review some OTHER areas of possible trades setting up too.

 

$GOLD

 

$GOLD MAY 21

 

So far, when it comes to the expected drop , they haven't been able to sell it off. PRICE , RSI & MACD in GOLD have formed higher lows so far. A close above the 50sma is Bullish I.M.O.

 

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CAN WE TALK?

May 9, 2014 /17 Comments/in , /by

FRIDAY  MAY 9  

Hi , This is me  Download your free smiley   - Above you'll see a picture of a Bear.  See the difference?  I am not a bear. I just thought that I should clear that up, because after my last report I was asked , "Why are you a bear?"

Really I am not a bear when it comes to Gold & Miners, but taking things step - by - step , there was simply a little downside coming and I'm not so sure that its done yet.   I DO see both bullish and not so bullish things in the charts at the end of this week, so how about a quick review.

 

GDX WEEKLY -  Everybody is staring at this pattern, so I almost feel like it wont quite play out the way it seems...but here is how it is set up anyways. Inverse H&S.  For now, I must say that a weekly chart with price  UNDER THE 10WMA  struggles.  Notice what GDX did the past few weeks under the 10WMA.

And what does that Stochatics tell you?

 

GDX WEEKLY

And there is more...

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How Deep is that??

May 7, 2014 in , /by

 MAY 7  (Intraday thoughts)

Lets not find out the hard way. When Gold / Miners are acting correctly , Trading can be profitable. Have you ever traded them when they get caught up in a sell off though? I mean a REAL SELL OFF? They pick up speed and start defying support levels , Moving avergaes, over sold markers, and so on. We may be starting one of those now, so I wanted to point out a few reasons why I think that that may be.

 

GDX DAILY -  we just lost support of the 10 & 20 sma this morning. That was my line in the sand, especially with the Stochastics overbought and the R.S.I. rejecting 50 again  (REMEMBER- THIS WAS JUST AFTER THE DOLLAR WAS GETTING CRUSHED YESTERDAY).

 

GDX DAILY may 7 also

 

I was holding JNUG, but flipped to JDST this a.m.--I believe we may see Metals / Miners accelerate in their selling - lets discuss why and look at a few POSSIBLE targets along the way.

 

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