Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

WELCOME BACK!

October 9, 2014 /8 Comments/in , /by

Oct 9, 2014 

   WELL!!!   I thought that I should offer up an idea or two intraday since the color RED is the color of the day . I do NOT want to become a  'BUY & HOLD' or 'WISH & HOPE' kind of trader...I look to see if I can see whats happening and when a trade starts to act in a way that I didnt expect, I have to try my best to numb the "EMOTIONS" and just look at the facts. So I snapped this PIC of an intraday chart ,  the sell off of GDX today.

  Its NOT meant to be grasping at straws or "HOPING" I'm right...its just what is happening , What I see right now.

 

GDX 50 percent

 

   As you can see, GDX and GDXJ have pulled back to very 'RED' for the day

- But they are only about 1/2 way into that move off of Lows yesterday, almost a "Test" of the top of a cup.

 

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NOT AGAIN?

October 9, 2014 /17 Comments/in , /by

OCT 9, 2014  

  WAIT! Is the train leaving the station again?  Should I jump on - or - Is this quick reversal just a Fed induced pipe dream , only to suck in longs and pull the rug out from under them?  Those are good questions and who can know for sure? No one, really.  HOWEVER  if we look for "Clues" - maybe it can shed light on the matter. I am going to continue on the theme that I started in the report  entitled " Its An Illusions"  (Click "illusions" to read it)   Illusions .

In that report , I was discussing how it seems that while everyone is being encouraged to "Look at GOLD & SILVER" crashing, Some  Miners were holding up, apparently  being accumulated. I want to re-visit that idea here, since the selling has escalated since I wrote that on Sept 25th, 2 weeks ago. Have things changed much? Lets see....

 

GDX certainly has joined in the sell off type move. You can see it bleeding 5 weeks in a row here

(This wkly chart was as of last week).

 

GDX WEEKLY

 

And look at this chart below! 

 

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“TIMING”!

October 8, 2014 /45 Comments/in , /by

Oct 8, 2014     "Timing Is Everything" 

  - Have you ever heard that expression? Well today, Timing was both Good and Bad for me, but thankfully for me (and everyone else too)...there is always a little more time.   I was drawing up charts this morning for another  Bullish Report. This was how my day started and how Timing was both Good and Bad.  In this weekends report here at Chartfreak, I was writing about expecting a market reversal higher. SO MANY people were calling for a steep sell off. 'October Crash' I kept hearing and I wrote about the group think in the weekend report.  I heard that a 20% correction was coming on CNBC yesterday and I saw this sentiment reading below   (THANKS TO TICKER SENSE) as too bearish.  I just cant get comfortable following the crowd .

 

 

TICKER SENSE

 

 

 And talk about BEARISH -  Metals & Miners were going to $800 to $1000 within a month.  I have been mentioning that I expect those MEANINGFUL Lows to come anytime now, and for several reasons.   Yes, Selling could continue later, but I feel that we are at an exhaustion point in both Cycle "Timing" and other areas.    But wait- What report? I didnt post a report this morning, did I? ...

 

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WATCHLIST

October 7, 2014 /14 Comments/in , /by

OCT 7, 2014 

 

I thought I would just throw a couple of ideas out there, possibly  for your watchlist if you have one. In my last report I pointed out the set up in ZEN as looking like this (Chart below). Notice that, as an I.P.O. it experienced rapid buying and then just went sideways (no Sellers) consolidating those initial gains. Once you break above that area, another run up can take place, since no one is selling , everyone is along for the ride, and momentum buyers can jump in. I've seen this pattern a lot, and as long as a company is doing well, the results can be higher prices.

 

ZEN

 

With that in mind, take a look at this next chart...

 

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GRACE UNDER PRESSURE

October 6, 2014 /10 Comments/in , /by

OCT 5  weekend report  

   I love the way the above picture captures the theme of GRACE UNDER PRESSURE  ( Picture Credit to Rush & Hugh Syme).

  Ermest Hemmingway wrote that "Courage is Grace under Pressure" and for the past few weeks, the markets began selling off,  thus pressuring  'buy & hold' investors.  Remaining Graceful while enduring the "Pressure' of the markets selling off allows one the "Courage" to make good decisions.  I feel that most readers here are that way.  For protection , We actually trade with stops in place  ( be it mental or a be it a hard stop),  looking  forward to pullbacks  in hopes of buying at 'discount prices'.   While I haven't see all out panic,I have seen CNBC  interviewing many lately asking,  "Is this it?  Have the Markets topped & is October going to be the month of a crash?" 

The question is...."What were you doing?"

   On Thursday , OCT 1 , I Tweeted this SPY CHART , pointing out OCT 2013 selling off to the 26 WMA (Red line) . Would we get that 193 area ?

 

SPY

 

   We Did get that red line  (193) and it looks to have reversed.  Yay for the chart & reliability  of these markets so far.

 

SPY OCT 3

 

If you bought a nice set up in that reversal ,  you displayed Courage and  Grace under Pressure...

 

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QUICK NOTE

October 3, 2014 /8 Comments/in , /by

Oct 3, 2014    Just a quick note….It looks like its going to be a good day for traders.  Yesterdays late day reversal in the sell off of the markets has set up some very beautiful charts. Looking at the 50sma, many of the recent pullbacks landed and reversed there.  It was a time to start […]

MARIO SPEAKS TODAY

October 2, 2014 /13 Comments/in , /by

Thursday  Oct 2 ,  2014       Mario Draghi is speaking today , and likely it will affect the markets. We have JOBS Report Friday too, so the next few days can affect, even change the markets. The charts are very extended in some areas and almost calling for a little change. Nothing is certain, but lets look at some charts and see if there are clues what kind of changes could take place. We can start with something that certainly could be moved by Mario...

 

The Euro -  $XEU is due for AT LEAST a bounce and may have completed 5 waves for the Elliott Wave fans

 

$XEU

 

The opposite of the $XEU is the $USD.  Is that over-extended to the upside? ...

 

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What Are You Looking At?

October 1, 2014 /7 Comments/in , /by

OCT 1, 2014   What am I looking at?  When we have a sell off in Markets or even individual stocks, I am always looking at my list.  I want  to see if anything I wanted to buy but missed  (or owned & sold) is possibly "Setting up" as another buying opportunity.  I AM REALLY liking the setting up of some Miners , but for this report, I just want to show some stocks that look interesting and I'll also include one of the GDX .  Its the start of a new Month, Its the start of a new Quarter. Funds may do some shopping pretty soon to attempt 4th quarter  bragging rights ( And thus a 4th Quarter rally?).  Today , these are JUST A FEW of the stocks I was looking at.

 

GDX - It may have a DEC 2013 type low forming? Or it MAY have a 5th wave to go...But seriously I have a FEW indicators & sentiment calling for an ICL sooner than later.

GDX OCT 1

Going back to my recent Gold report  here  http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/09/26/illusion/

and look at many of those MINERS that I said were acting rather special in this beat down. READ That report---look at what I said about FSM, RBY, RIC, etc .

NOTHING HAS CHANGED More smileys for free download

 

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LESSONS

September 30, 2014 /19 Comments/in , /by

September 30, 2014      

 

                  Sometimes you learn little things along the way in life, and they become lessons that ring true with time.  They then become so common to you, that you forget that it was an important lesson once . I remember sitting next to a 4 year old eating Yogurt and he says to me, "Why do you put blueberries in your yogurt?"    I thought..." Wow,  is that a learned feature? I thought everyone knew that sometimes fruit in yogurt is a bonus! I need to get this kid some strawberries!"     So it seems that unknowingly, we take for granted & forget to share with others what seems like "the Little Things" , so I wanted to just share one important lesson that I have learned (  Thank You William O'Neil) , that can help traders / investors.  I just got 'schooled' on this lesson this month!

 

This was the IPO GO PRO in June - Aug. 

 

GPTO AUG 27

 

 

We all love GPRO  .  If this breaks out to new highs, do we buy? It looks a bit "EXTENDED", no?  If we own it do we sell?  THATS where the lesson lies....

 

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UPDATE

September 28, 2014 /17 Comments/in , /by

  Sunday Sept 28     I dont know what it is... it's either when I write about the Gold/ Silver/ Metals market or maybe its whenever I write something that is contrary to what the crowd is  thinking,  but after one of those two ideas is presented,   I get a lot of feedback  ( and I love it! ).  I got a good number of comments below the previous article for the public to see, but also many write to me by email and share thoughts or ask questions too. It was really a lot of good constructive feedback, so thank you!  I've decided to do a follow up to Thursdays report that I posted Friday morning and I've dug into more charts to explain what I am seeing. Some of it basic and some of it a bit deeper.

  To start with,  lets I review what was happening on  May 30 2014.    Gold had recently broken down from a "Continuation triangle"  the 'measured' target was $50 lower, but most felt $1180 would be broken, maybe $1150 or worse would get tagged.  EVERYWHERE I looked , articles were talking about "SEASONALITY" in Gold being Late July & AUG . THATS when "we should buy the bottom" , they were saying...the LOWS would be in then.  I wrote an article saying that it might be time to buy now  (I had entered JNUG & NUGT and few select Miners). That article is here if you want to read it.      http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/05/31/learning-to-be-patient/

 

  It Seemed that everyone was or wanted to go short- or just hated the metals all together. 

As a quick review, the charts I used went like this MAY 2014- Triangle price projection near $1200, seasonal lows in Jul/AUG

MAY 30 projection 1

 

I had noticed some very interesting things happening with Miners and even the Metals charts themselves, SO I posted this Next chart below as a contrary idea , one that would leave everyone waiting for "Seasonal Summer Lows" behind ...

 

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