ENERGY LOWS
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Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak
Entries by Alex - Chart Freak
QUICK VIEW
OCT 30 Quick update ( I apologize- it has been brought to my attention that the 1st audio post did not come out- I HAVE NOW RE recorded it Sorry for the inconvenience)
Please RIGHT CLICK the link below -select open in a new tab & another tab will open , look for & click "DOWNLOAD"
Then just click "OPEN" - when you hear my voice, return and follow the charts
GDX ...
Something Doesnt Fit
OCT 29 FED DAY Yes, I'll admit it!
1. I saw many charts that are set up rather nicely the DAY of the FED mtg
2. It DOSNT FIT what I usually see on what is known as a messy, indecisive & volatile FED DAY
3. But That was a stretch using that title just so I could use this picture of the Trooper Dog. I just think this pic is great 
Starting with the Markets- SPX click here - click 'download' then click 'open' (when you hear audio, return here and follow charts)
Anticipation?
OCT 28 Just a quick update because we are in the FED ZONE again. The picture above depicts what can happen after the FED speaks on Wednesday , and that can be in either direction. With that in mind, I hate to recommend trades that can really get smoked to the downside, but I do have some pretty nice short term set ups forming, so lets just discuss a couple of things here now, and see how things play out moving forward into the Fed day and beyond.
Oct 23 - I thought the SPX would get stuck under the 50sma , maybe even dip to the 20sma . I posted this
The following chart shows that we have done exactly that so far...SPX remains under the 50sma on a closing basis (as I was writing, it broke above)
Looking Below The Surface
Oct 24,2014 At times, things arent always as they appear on the surface. You may have to dig a little deeper to find out whats really there. Thats what I am attempting to do in the Precious metals mkts. Yesterday about an hour into trading I was watching Miners break down to new lows. Again the message boards lit up with "New Lows, that means we are going a lot lower" and "Going short here, much lower prices ahead". For me, something hasn't "Felt" right about that, so I knew that I had to dig deeper and see if I could reconcile the problem that I was having. The problem goes back to a prior report where I pointed out that I was getting signals for a "Meaningful Low" in Gold (An ICL).
In fact, since that report, GOLD has been acting correctly, running up to the 50sma and stalled just like MAY LOWS, but the MINERS have NOT been keeping up. NOTICE that GOLD Lows here have been like the TWIN of MAYs Meaningful LOWS (ICL). So to me...LOWS IN GOLD WERE IN.
AUDIO click here / then click 'download' / click 'open' & then come back to this page when you hear the report to follow the charts
The problem with everyone going short yesterday was what I had noted in other reports too...
Look – Dont Touch!
OCT 23, 2014 As I begin writing GOLD/MINERS are at lows of the day. Miners are breaking to new lows, a break down? It looks like it on the surface.
Here is what I am seeing ( but you may not want to touch this yet). I know this sounds C-R-A-Z-Y , but I am seeing something odd with the GOLD RUN UP & MINERS SELL OFF. Does THAT correlation usually last? No. As I have mentioned - $GOLD looks to have made a real ICL, meaningful low, just like last May. GDX is testing High Volume FED MINUTE lows. I would watch for a "POSSIBLE" reversal today, thinking the MINERS are making a 5th wave down, POSSIBLE false break down. We are actually testing a HUGE candle on 1/3 rd the volume. Those "Light Volume Tests" reverse FAR MORE OFTEN than not. I expect a reversal or bounce if volume remains this light, but its RISKY. You may just want to LOOK , DONT TOUCH.
I also want to zoom in and show you a 5 day 5 minute chart ...
A Closer Look
OCT 22, 2014
Lets just take a closer look at a few Market details from here... (Apologies, Audio will be back soon)
$GOLD looks so much like those meaningful MAY lows to me. Runs up, tags the 50sma , slam down Then recover. SO I would expect the slam down today.
Interestingly, GDX looks much more like the meaningful lows in DEC
Low Risk & Higher Risk
October 20, 2014 There comes a point in every trade where (Hopefully) you get a low risk entry, and then as time moves forward, it becomes a little higher risk to enter, or even higher risk to just hold your current position. We may not be there yet (As I start writing, futures are up nicely) , but what I am seeing leads me to believe that the Markets MIGHT just be in a bounce and MIGHT make lower lows at some point. I looked at TONS of charts this weekend, and the reversal that most of us bought was indeed a trade-able reversal, but what Now? Lets look at MANY CHARTS and try to get an idea of what is happening. I will say that at this point , anything can happen...its not super clear, and that alone means we are at a slightly higher risk area. I can make the case that Markets could be on the way to making new highs, I can make the case that markets likely will make new lows. Actually Much of it depends on ...
(I apologize, no audio today - sore throat and cracky voice) : (
The $USD... Oct 14 - Very strong, but overdone--I was looking for a drop to the 84 area
And we have dropped as expected, but theres room for more downside I.M.O.
GDX & GDXJ
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Dont You Just Hate Gaps?
October 17, 2014
I hate gaps, and the markets are set to break away with a pretty large GAP this morning. When markets GAP Higher at the open, they can do a number of things from there, and THATS why I hate gaps. I had a large number of buying opportunities in my sights for you. If you look at the "Comments" section from yesterdays report, BANIMAL asked me about what I was seeing, and I told him that I was seeing reversals across the board, and was planning on sharing my thoughts. GAPS tend to change that, so from here...Lets review some Charts
On OCT 15 - I thought we made capitulation Lows and TWEETED the following charts (Do you follow me on Twitter?)
Click here , then look for "Download & click it. Click "OPEN" and when you hear me...hit the back button (Get back to the this website & follow charts below)
SPX REVERSAL
Also notice the following 3 charts , adding weight to the idea that we were at capitulation lows...
