Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Observations and Notes on an Ugly Core vs a Healthy Core

December 3, 2014 /9 Comments/in /by

Today I wanted to mention a couple of observations in the Metals markets and the Dollar.    Also -  you may want  to re-read yesterdays report, it came out late in the day and really  not much  has changed. I am still trying to figure out if that HUGE move by GOLD & SILVER Monday indicates the end of a short first daily cycle , and the start of a new one?  If so GOLD would likely POP higher soon  (Jobs report? ) Or, As mentioned,  was that strong slam down & reversal just putting in a daily cycle high and now we drift down to a daily cycle low.   THIS chart was posted to show that idea in GDX 2008 lows.

You want to be in for the second leg up

 

2008 Miners

 

 

Some have stated that the recent surge in the DOLLAR  (And it continues overnight)  shows extremely bullish conditions and they fear that GOLD will crumble as the Dollar plows higher.

 

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BULLISH

December 2, 2014 /2 Comments/in /by

Dec 2 2014

   WOW!  Metals!  Could it possibly be nearing a time to gather a small CORE position in miners?   Or is that just a rotten idea  at this point? I just posted a member report , but I  didnt want to just leave my other friends/ followers who may be unable to sign up at this time  hanging, so I just want to post a quick update. The recent ride in GOLD/SILVER  has been what...Breathtaking to say the least ?  It really has and if you've followed my reports then you know that  it has been shake out after shake out (Quite often on Fridays).   I had maintained that these were Bullish when they recovered, so what is going on now?  We had a 1/2 day holiday trading period last Friday ... but it got crazy.

BOOM, an $80 move in Gold

 

GOLD DAILY

 

I always thought that someday we'd see a $100 dollar move in Gold, but I thought  that we'd see that when Gold was up near $2000 . ..

 

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THAT WAS BULLISH

December 2, 2014 /8 Comments/in /by

Dec 2, 2014

 The move made by GOLD & SILVER  was very bullish in my opinion. Any pullback from here will be monitored, but likely as BUY opportunities.  The set up is great because it confirmed what I had been mentioning from Nov 7th,  that an ICL  (Those meaningful trade-able lows) was in place. We witnessed MANY shake outs each Friday along the way and FRIDAY,  ( That  1/2 day light volume day?  yeah right) ... SHOOK THE FOUNDATIONS, but the RECOVERY was just as breathtaking if not more so. Lets examine what it means going forward.   This was what happened Before the SWISS VOTE on Gold and what happened AFTER the VOTE was "NO".

 

GOLD - The shake out / Recovery was an explosive bull move.

WHAT HAPPENED

 

 

Gold is currently down $13 as I write...is that concerning? ...

 

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Your Invitation to Join Me

December 2, 2014 /12 Comments/in /by

I really want to thank you for following along here at ChartFreak. Whether you have been here since I started posting last March, or you have just joined me in the past few weeks, I’m happy to have had the opportunity to share my years of experience with you.   I have appreciated the support through your kind […]

Deviate From The Norm

December 1, 2014 /26 Comments/in /by

Dec 1,2014   

  An Anomaly is something that deviates from the norm or the standard.  When you see one, its rather hard to know what to make of it.  Even though we have to "Expect the unexpected" in the markets, I must admit that Fridays HIGH VOLUME  in Gold / Silver / Miners (And OIL / Energy stocks  for that matter) took me very much by surprise.  Let me say that I was Shocked when I saw that volume, let alone that it came in the form of a GOLD SMACK DOWN on a holiday.   Friday was an anomaly for me.  By normal standards it is usually part of a  4 day vacation type weekend when many 'pack it in' to travel & be with family. That Friday after Thanksgiving is usually a shortened  light volume 1/2 day of  trading .  A NON-EVENT. When someone asks me "Are you still learning from the markets?" I give it a resounding "OH YES!" for just such occasions.  lesson here, stay alert - stay frosty at all times,  and if the markets are open....expect the unexpected!

 

The Big question is , "What happens now with Gold? Are the recent lows doomed? Did the Swiss Vote ruin everything?" Lets review a few points and discuss
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You Have 1/2 Day To Decide

November 28, 2014 /15 Comments/in /by

11/28/2014

   GOLD!    Meltdown? Blast Off? Non-Event? The question on many investors in the metals markets this weekend points towards the SWISS REFERENDUM. And as far as holding your current positions or selling them, you now have 1/2 day to decide whether you should HOLD or you should SELL.  Let me just say, I've laid out the BULLISH case here for the past 3 weeks and so far, we have seen matters play out exactly as I thought it would.   However, The event Sunday can cause a knee-jerk reaction and so I want to mention that there is no shame in selling if one is unsure or nervous. Todays 1/2 day of trading is your last chance to do so. I am here to again review why "Nothing has changed" so far, because I did get a good number of emails asking me about that.

 

GOLD  -  Yes it has sold off again.   In many prior reports I mentioned that Fridays have been pretty predictable that way lately, so that you'd be prepared. Take a look,  does it look absolutely broken to you?

 

Gold 1179

 

That $1179 has been an important number,on Nov 18 I shared this chart below on FED day to prepare us for that...

 

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DID YOU SEE ‘IT’ THIS TIME?

November 26, 2014 /69 Comments/in /by

Nov 25      PART 1   This  first part of this report I wrote at Noon time Tuesday.

AUDIO LINK    click here / then click 'download' -  then click "open" & return here to follow charts when you hear the audio

   Follow my thinking on this one  :    Earlier I discussed the SWISS BANK REFERENDUM and how some may be cautious going into the weekend with that on the table.  Anyone who has entered trades in the Gold & Silver markets may be planning on Selling Friday, especially if they didn't buy near the lows and cant take a possible "Gap Down" Monday after the vote.  I have pointed out that for the past  3 Fridays People are nervous holding metals positions into the weekend.  I see on several Blogs each week,  "I am NOT holding Miners into the weekend" and then Friday there is a sell off in GOLD only to see that  later it closes GREEN .   Interesting . 

Could selling this week be  "The Final Shake Out / Leave many behind move"  before a nice break out higher?  Break out?  Yes, above the 50sma on $GOLD $GDX $GDXJ 

 

GOLD 50sma dance

 

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Things To Be Aware Of

November 25, 2014 in /by

Nov 25, 2014     AUDIO HERE  http://www.screencast.com/t/X77Ul4hyP

   We have a light volume / Holiday shortened trading  week in the U.S. Mkts this week  , so In todays report I  just wanted to point out a few things that are Noteworthy.

BRIEFLY let me just mention that the SWISS Referendum. It is a  vote that takes place on Nov 30 deciding 2 things actually. 1.  Whether or not the Swiss National Bank should be barred from further selling of their gold reserves. 2. It also would mandate that they need to more than Double current reserves!  THIS VOTE takes place .....................SUNDAY.  Its important to note because it may influence how you are positioned going into the weekend. I believe the vote could be a "catalyst" for strong POP in Gold Monday or possibly even a sell off into a somewhat early Daily cycle low. If you want my opinion, I think a NO VOTE is expected and so its already baked in.  A YES vote would cause a strong rally , because there are bullish implications ( Swiss Bank Cant sell Gold / Swiss Bank must begin buying / Accumulating Gold  (they currently hold 8% of assets in Gold and the vote would mandate accumulating and holding at least 20% over time). There is more , but that's enough to know for now.  Here is how I am looking at GOLD from day to day.

GOLD Please notice the "NOISE" zone. (Click chart)

 

GOLD NOV 25

 

It seems that when GOLD drops only $5- $8 ,  I get emails asking for an update.  I am told that accumulation is lightening and this is apparently bearish, etc.  Realistically, GOLD cannot stand at 1 price all week, it has to be allowed to rise & fall...to fluctuate  (likely that could occur until that NOV 30 vote).  Please notice this GOLD NOISE ZONE in the chart above .  Gold in this area need no update, its acting normally.  A break out or break down might need to be addressed.

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Am I Comfortable In Shorts Here?

November 23, 2014 /36 Comments/in /by

Nov 23  Weekend report (Sunday 5 p.m.)

 Someone asked me to let them know when I'm comfortable shorting the Gold/Silver market in the next few days, especially since The $USD Popped Friday.   I'm glad you asked! While there always may be some 'short term' success in a short position from day to day... I still  believe that it will end badly for stubborn shorts in the next few weeks.  If you have been reading my reports for the past 2 weeks then  you know what my thinking has been.  Not only does it remain the same, but I believe we could get an accelerated move upside after a few minor dips in the coming weeks and I would NOT want to be caught in shorts out in those waters.  Let me show you why...

Recall that In this  Friday  Nov 7th report here -   http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/11/07/scary-yet-beautiful/    ( And the following  wkend report)  I called the GOLD lows Pre-Market.

( Audio link here : Nov 23 wkend report -  Click the link, click "Download"  then click "OPEN" & return here to follow along )

SO 2 weeks later, with those LOWS still in place, I want you to note this $GOLD / $USD CHART last May 2014 :

 

GOLDS MAY LOWS

Once the GOLD lows were in, In MAY the dollar popped and GOLD resisted.

DID you notice that on Friday this week the $USD popped, and $GOLD went up too?

Notice also on the above chart  what Going short on a reversal after the lows lead to pain.  Also ...

 

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The Friday Illusion Again?

November 21, 2014 /51 Comments/in /by

Nov 21, 2014   Freaky Friday  6:00A.M.

Will they sell Metals off?  Will they buy it back?  Will Metals break out higher going into the weekend, when less people are likley to BUY & HOLD ? Its hard to know exactly what we will see, but lately Fridays have been exciting in the Metals markets,  so  I got up at 5 a.m. today to see if the Friday shenanigans that occurred in Gold the past 2 Fridays would return.  So far, it seems likely.   Well, if you've read my prior reports, then you know what I am looking for at the end of Friday on the weekly charts, so I will just touch on a few things here and then take a look at a couple of other interesting chart developments elsehwere. 

First- this is the "SNAPSHOT" I woke up to...   whats your first thought?

5 30 a.m.

It looks like another dollar rally coming , and a Gold slam down, but notice this ....

 

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