Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

A Minnie Victory

January 5, 2015 /19 Comments/in /by

Friday was a Mini victory if you ask me, and I'll tell you why after a brief update of the markets. So far The SPX, Q's and Dow acted just as I thought they would, they have dropped after making new highs (QQQ was likely not going to make new highs, and it didnt ).   DEC 30 - I posted this that I'd be watching the QQQ's at the 10sma, it looked weak.

QQQ Dec 31

 

Well, it broke right through the 10sma by the end of Dec 31,  so what now? All doom & gloom from here?

 

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Do You Recognize The Difference?

January 2, 2015 /2 Comments/in /by

Real Strength and Real Weakness. 

In Humans  , sometimes strength & weakness can  show up as obvious,  seen by outward appearance alone.  In some cases, however, it may require an X-Ray  to peer inside and see how the internals are doing.  Its really the same with the markets. A Rally can appear strong,  and yet inside it may show evidence of weakness , and visa-versa can be  true too.

I know many felt that the year end 'Santa Rally ' ,  as it is often called at the end of the year,  looked like a strong continuation of the rallies  that we are used to seeing lately.  Here at Chartfreak, I was mentioning to my premium readers that under the microscope, the rally looked to be weakening to me.  I thought that we might actually see some rolling over and possibly even some selling into 2015.  For how long? We will know soon enough, but notice what I was pointing out to my subs last week.

 

THE SPX was falling short in some of its 'internals'-  It looked weak to me as it was breaking out.  I thought it might actually  roll over after breaking to new highs,   like it did in September.

SPX dec 28

SPY NOW  ( Broke with weakness & fell back)

SPY Jan 2

 

To me the QQQ looked even weaker...

 

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Low Liquidity

January 2, 2015 /16 Comments/in /by

  During times of low liquidity,  it's  easy to rock these boats back & forth , but it's not always easy  to get them sailing smoothly in the  intended direction.  When the tide rises , or the flow of liquidity returns, however, they can begin a journey of smoother sailing .  During weeks of holiday trading, its similar in  the markets.    low liquidity can cause volatility and rock things back and forth, but it's not always clear which direction things really want to flow.

  Today is January 2, and it's the first trading day of 2015, but I'm not so sure that the liquidity will return until next week.  Until then ,we may have more volatility and things may not look very clear, but there are some interesting developments to look at.  As I write  (Pre-Mkt) Futures are up nicely for the DOW, SPX, and NASDAQ,  while GOLD shot down to $1169 , Silver is down .10 , and OIL has dropped to new lows.  The $USD is again strong, up to $90.85!  I still think next week will clarify the true direction of these markets, but notice this...

$USD Jan

 

The dollar is at new highs in Pre-Mkt  at almost $91., yet Even with the continued Dollar strength...

 

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QUICK REPORT

December 31, 2014 /14 Comments/in /by

Just a quick run through since we have just 1 trading day left in 2014 and it 'Should Be'  a light volume day ,  since many will be leaving early to prepare for any evening activities.   I'll start with QQQ.  I posted his chart yesterday and said it looked like we could are stalling and could begin to pullback...

 

QQQ Dec 30

This is what happened Tuesday  ...

 

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Hot Air

December 30, 2014 /22 Comments/in /by

When I think about the markets right now,  it is Dec 30and we have 2 full days left for the markets to trade in 2014.  I'm thinking that we are seeing a little hot air balloon action, where things just keep floating higher on light volume.  Maybe people dont want to sell now and have to pay taxes this year on their recent gains, but what will they do in January when they can take some profits and not have to pay taxes on their gains until 2016?  Will they lock in some gains? 

Lets take a look at the SPX

SPX DEC 30

Notice how we hit that upper trend line this summer in JUNE and just rode it higher for a couple of months, will we do that here?  ...

 

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Time Is Just About Up

December 29, 2014 /18 Comments/in /by

Using cycles for 'timing' various sectors of the markets helps us to anticipate when we can expect a possible turn to take place.  True, you get a little leeway of  maybe plus or minus a few days, but sooner or later, we reach the end of that time period.   It seems that we are rapidly approaching the  point where it is Do Or Die time.   Each day that passes this late in Cycle timing brings us  closer to the point where we begin to see clearly how things are going to unfold.  As usual, I have about 20+ charts ,  and at this point I'd like to start with-

 

GOLD - With the $USD at new highs, GOLD hasn't been hammered down to new lows as one may expect.

$GOLD vs USD

 

I posted the above chart in my public report, but it still leaves questions.  Was that a bear flag that would just break down?...

 

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Is It For Real?

December 27, 2014 in /by

( This post was written Friday a.m. Dec 26)

Have you ever seen those artists that do 'Chalk Art' along the sidewalks of public streets?  They amaze me and at times you just cant believe your eyes.  I find myself asking , 
"Is what I am looking at real?"  Well lately, many are saying the same thing when they look at the Gold / Silver markets. I have been reporting since Nov 5th & Nov 7th that GOLD was putting in a meaningful low  (At least a temporary one).    See my Nov 5th report here -    http://www.chartfreak.com/afraid-alert/

 

Looking at the chart of GOLD , you can see that the Nov lows have held and this is with the $USD at new highs!

$GOLD vs USD

$SILVER also has shaped up nicely in the past couple of months ...

 

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ENERGY (And A Touch Of miners Update)

December 24, 2014 /12 Comments/in /by

Just a quick post today to show you what I will be watching at the close on this 1/2 day of trading, and also what to look at Friday morning when the markets resume trading.   It is noteworthy that OIL sold off again today and OIL is heading back to its lows. Bear Flag?

 

$WTIC

It's certainly possible that OIL undercuts recent lows. It almost did that today, but notice this ...

 

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Oh That Light Volume Trading

December 23, 2014 /14 Comments/in /by

We had a little bit of selling & volume in The miners today , so instead of a morning report Tuesday, I wanted to post some thoughts tonight. I started getting some questions about things as the day went forward. Nothing wrong with that, it is expected.  I had mentioned possibly seeing light volume holiday trading and by noon, we had some selling in Miners.  I posted this chart Mid-Day  before the selling really started to escalate, to point out some similarities to a prior sell off .

 

  Selling increased from that point on, so what Now?

 

GDX DEC 22

 

Lets take a closer look at all things cycles and technical analysis ...

 

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