Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak
Entries by Alex - Chart Freak
Exercising Patience
In some situations, patience just doesn't just come naturally. We need to train ourselves to be patient. Here at Chartfreak, while looking at a few nice trade set ups here and there, we've really been waiting patiently for...
MESMERZING !
It gets mesmerizing & hypnotic if you stare at it too long. Yes, the picture above, but also the Metals and miners markets. I wanted to just pop in intra-day and address a few thoughts, I am getting some "Concerns" about Miners dropping even lower here. Yes, GDX is lower and Miners look weak, but in a drop to a daily cycle low...that is what fools everyone. Let me show you 3 charts that can help us to gain confidence.
Comfortable?
As Gold drifts around the lows of November, many wonder whether it means Metals are about to break through the bottom again and head for new lows, or break out higher? For many its hard to get really comfortable with the constant ebb and flow of the Metals , especially with the Dollar acting so strongly lately. We can look at some charts in the public section here and comment a little about whats been happening, but a Premium report just went out this weekend, so the review has to be limited, not taking away from those reading the premium version.
Gold hasn't broken down in a lasting manner from this channel, but its at the low end now and faces resistance above. (Click chart to open)
If you look at a long term chart of SILVER, it finds itself in a similar place ...
Comfortable- But Never Overly Relaxed
Right now I am comfortable with the present information indicating that we did see an ICL in Early November. It also appears that when we look at Gold and Miners, they have moved forward in what is likely going to be a "Right Translated" daily cycle. There is no way to KNOW this ahead of time, but what This means is that it "Peaks" its highest point in that Daily Cycle more than halfway through it. That also means that it will break to new highs once it has found its daily cycle low and reverses higher. So while I am comfortable that things are still lining up properly... I never like to get Overly Comfortable. The markets can do anything , so we stay alert . Lets examine what the Gold/ Silver/ Miners are looking like after last week, and then discuss a few other things.
Gold On Friday after the jobs report ended like this -
Notice this important fact about Gold ...
Jobs Report
Today we get the Friday Jobs Report. Yes...FRIDAY! If you've followed my reports for the past 4 Fridays, it has been a day for GOLD shake outs. This is GOLD as I start writing, we might as well expect some shaking . Looking at this chart , however, You can see that a drop below the bottom trend line (& later a recovery) would just be more noise.
We are also anticipating a Daily Cycle Low, so a drop in GOLD and Miners is possible, but should lead to a higher low. REMEMBER - Daily Cycles can last 20 + days ...
I Think Its Time
After looking at a few thousand charts yesterday , I am thinking that it might just be time to take some positions if you dont have one. Though we "COULD" dip down into a daily cycle low, I again have to wonder if that SMACK DOWN last Friday-Monday was the end of a short daily cycle. THAT would mean we are in the 2nd DCYcle. Also looking at charts of many Miners yesterday, they look like good set ups , some have very little downside risk vs what could be a nice %-Gain to the upside. Take a look with me and see what you think.
GOLD 4 hr chart this morning. Looks pretty bullish as I write (7:00 A.M.)
SO I mention above a possible future DCL with the Jobs report Friday, but this cup & Handle also looks like it could POP higher for a couple of days. IF a DCL is still ahead, it THEN may only drop to a DCL that isnt much lower than right here if break out of this cup/handle soon. LOOK AGAIN at GOLD WKLY as of yesterday...
Observations and Notes on an Ugly Core vs a Healthy Core
Today I wanted to mention a couple of observations in the Metals markets and the Dollar. Also - you may want to re-read yesterdays report, it came out late in the day and really not much has changed. I am still trying to figure out if that HUGE move by GOLD & SILVER Monday indicates the end of a short first daily cycle , and the start of a new one? If so GOLD would likely POP higher soon (Jobs report? ) Or, As mentioned, was that strong slam down & reversal just putting in a daily cycle high and now we drift down to a daily cycle low. THIS chart was posted to show that idea in GDX 2008 lows.
You want to be in for the second leg up
Some have stated that the recent surge in the DOLLAR (And it continues overnight) shows extremely bullish conditions and they fear that GOLD will crumble as the Dollar plows higher.
BULLISH
Dec 2 2014
WOW! Metals! Could it possibly be nearing a time to gather a small CORE position in miners? Or is that just a rotten idea at this point? I just posted a member report , but I didnt want to just leave my other friends/ followers who may be unable to sign up at this time hanging, so I just want to post a quick update. The recent ride in GOLD/SILVER has been what...Breathtaking to say the least ? It really has and if you've followed my reports then you know that it has been shake out after shake out (Quite often on Fridays). I had maintained that these were Bullish when they recovered, so what is going on now? We had a 1/2 day holiday trading period last Friday ... but it got crazy.
BOOM, an $80 move in Gold
I always thought that someday we'd see a $100 dollar move in Gold, but I thought that we'd see that when Gold was up near $2000 . ..
THAT WAS BULLISH
Dec 2, 2014
The move made by GOLD & SILVER was very bullish in my opinion. Any pullback from here will be monitored, but likely as BUY opportunities. The set up is great because it confirmed what I had been mentioning from Nov 7th, that an ICL (Those meaningful trade-able lows) was in place. We witnessed MANY shake outs each Friday along the way and FRIDAY, ( That 1/2 day light volume day? yeah right) ... SHOOK THE FOUNDATIONS, but the RECOVERY was just as breathtaking if not more so. Lets examine what it means going forward. This was what happened Before the SWISS VOTE on Gold and what happened AFTER the VOTE was "NO".
GOLD - The shake out / Recovery was an explosive bull move.
Gold is currently down $13 as I write...is that concerning? ...
