Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak
Entries by Alex - Chart Freak
PUBLIC REPORT : GOLD BULLS AND GOLD BEARS
We saw GOLD break to new yearly lows Tuesday and I read in several different places that people were going short for the drop below $1000 (Again). From what I was seeing, it was not time to be going short. I discussed that in my Tuesday night report and will post some of that discussion […]
A Clearer Picture
The picture started getting clearer in many sectors of the market after the Fed Minutes were released Wednesday afternoon. Lets take a look.
SPX / SPY - Looking for an overhead follow through and within the timing for a DCL. The 200sma acted as resistance.
Bullish Break through, I expect higher prices and will watch how the follow through plays out.
She’s Breaking Down…How Bad Is It?
We saw GOLD break to new yearly lows yesterday and I read in several different places that people were going short for the drop to below $1000 (Again). We will discuss why I do not agree that this is the time to be going short. NATGAS remains interesting and OIL and Energy Stocks continue to have my attention too, so First lets look at a few other charts.
SPX - The markets stalled at the 200sma and a down trend line that I mentioned earlier. We could drop to the 50sma, but timing wise, we are due to go higher soon.This may be a pause before breaking above that 200sma.
The USD has been strong , but it may be due for a rest. Yesterday was a short term topping or reversal candle, but it is not a strongly reliable one. If the dollar is due for a rest, what might that do for the commodities that are now being heavily shorted?
Public Post – An Oil & Energy Update
I wanted to do a quick update on the Oil and Energy sector that was included in todays premium report. It is interesting that as we see Oil selling off toward the Aug lows and currently forming Lower Highs and lower Lows, many Energy stocks seem to be more or less holding up and basing […]
Winds Of Change
The Markets always have that Ebb and Flow action where they pull back and push forward. We have been in the timing for some change as mentioned in the weekend report, and today we did get those winds of change blowing through. lets take a look...
In the weekend report the SPX chart pointed out possible turning points, seen here.
Here I am pointing out the action in the SPY, the day ended with 117 million. We are in the timing for a DCL (Daily Cycle Low, so I do believe that today was a DCL. If this pop drops ( to the 50sma?), I think support will hold. This is a buy with a stop below the 50 sma.
This Market – Hot And Cold
This week various sectors actually made some moves that could affect the short and longer term outlook. Lets dig right in and review what has happened.
SPX - Expecting a pullback with resistance at former highs, this is wedge was posted and a possible channel could form.
SPX - The channel has been broken, but thats not bearish by itself yet. The SPX tagged the 38% retrace. We could even fall further this week to the purple dotted trend line for a back test. This is also the 50% retrace and the 50sma is there, so good support could be found just below current price. I do expect a bounce soon.
This is not bearish at this point, but let me show you something a little more concerning here...
Examining The Evidence
As I begin writing this report, it looks like OIL may be ready to bounce here. I wanted to take this time to examine the evidence and discuss my recent expectations in the Oil markets.
WTIC - Nov 11 this was our picture of OIL. Please note the $42.58 . Oil was not acting the way that it should early in a 2nd daily cycle and the high volume selling was noteworthy.
Now lets take a closer look on Nov 12 and discuss the implications.
Oil And More
I wanted to discuss OIL a little later in this report this morning, since it is acting a little weaker than expected. We'll start with our market review.
We expected a small pull back in the markets, and this chart showed where the Fib #'s would be. There was also a channel included.
We have reached that lower channel line and the 20sma. That could act as support, but the above chart also has the 38% Fib # at 2022 and we also see the 50sma and the purple break out in that area. That means the selling may not be over yet.
Not A Lot Of Change
There was no significant change in most of what was covered in yesterdays report. Draghi is scheduled to speak in London this morning, could his speech change things? It has in the past. For now, lets just do a review of what we've been looking for.
With a pullback due in the SPX, I drew this possibility yesterday. We could Tag the 50sma and lower trend line.
A reversal yesterday doesn't change the idea that we will still pull back, so I've added the fib #'s. We could bounce & still drop to the 50sma
