PUBLIC POST: Embracing The Big Picture

As 2015 started to wind down in December, I began to lay out in my weekend reports a little more of the Big Picture changes that I think we might see as we head into 2016.  I decided to post a few of those charts here.

 

SPX –  This idea has been discussed in detail for weeks actually.  This is my chart from October 16 weekend report.  It continues to take time to see whether this will become a major break down or just a normal correction. Allow these charts from prior reports to point out the weakness that I was seeing as time went on.

SPX WKLY 10-16 2

Was this just a back test?

SPX Breaks

The RUT/ IWM / NYC  etc were not recovering to former highs with the other markets after the August drop.

IWM 12-24

So what about other areas of the markets as we move into 2016? 

 The $USD had a great run, and many feel that it is headed to 120.  It could happen, but I have had my doubts since the summer.  I am thinking that we may just get a double top. This was my November chart pointing out a possible stall as it approached the 100 area. So far it has followed the blue arrow and is now moving higher again.  ( See the next chart)

USD 11-20

The last time the Dollar was set up like this  ( See March – May 2015 on this chart) , it surged to the 100 area and rolled over. A similar move here would look like a double top on a wkly chart.  ( So far we have moved higher above the blue line as expected).

USD 12-30b

A big change that could be coming in 2016 is that we may actually see an end to some of the prolonged selling in the $CRB, $WTIC, $NATGAS, $GOLD GDX , etc.    Cycle timing allows for these areas to bottom.

I already called for the lows in NATGAS here.  It took off much quicker than I expected, and I missed the buy hoping for a pullback to the 20sma, but now the 2nd chart shows a possibility that I am looking for here.

NATGAS 12-11

NATGAS 12-31

OIL – Long term support is in this area, and that looks like a Bullish Descending Wedge forming. There is a possibility that 2016 will see the rise in Oil, similar to what occurred in 2009.  You dont want to miss a move like that in Oil stocks The % – Gains can be huge.   We are monitoring things .

WTIC 12-24 big pic

I was actually looking for an initial $35 .16 target and then a deeper $26 target as a final low based on my weekly charts, but I am wondering if that $26 target will be seen.   Oil hit $34.53 for its recent low.

WTIC 12-11 

 

Gold Big Picture – We may see a Bottom in Gold in 2016, and there is even a possibility that we have seen it in 2015. I know that everyone is waiting to buy at  $1000 or less Gold, and it could happen, but the markets do not often give the crowd what they expect.  I actually expect a rally soon  ( at least a solid bounce).

I did a special weekend report with a study showing how GOLD has acted in rising interest rate environments in the past.   NOTICE:  As Gold & Silver dipped down to new lows in November and December,  miners DID NOT break their lows.  Some Miners bottomed already,  did you notice that? Lets look at a few, but first notice that the HUI bottomed in late 2000,  and GOLD and SILVER did not –  they bottomed later in 2001.  MINERS BOTTOMED FIRST.  Is that possibly happening now?

HUI BIG PIC

.

 I have been pointing out to my readers that there are :

Miners that have lows in place, while GOLD & SILVER broke down to new lows in November & December 2015.

NG – This is an older chart (Dec 4) , but it is still valid for my point.  As Gold was selling off to new lows in December,  I showed that Nova Gold bottomed in 2013.  This is a healthy looking base.

NG WKLY 2

 

SA – This is a beautiful chart when you consider that Gold broke down to new 5 yr lows in December. This has repeatedly presented itself as a buy since the summer.   SA has almost tripled this year.

sa 12-21

BAA –  This junior Miner actually seems to have double bottomed in late 2014, and is forming a large base and another double bottom in 2015.

BAA 12-31

MUX –  I pointed out that MUX bottomed in the summer of 2015 so far. This is a solid looking base.

MUX lows

MUX CURRENTLY –

MUX 1-6

GPL –  Silver broke down to 6 yr lows and a small silver stock didnt care.

GPL 12-24

 

   In Summary:   This is just a quick overview of  some of the interesting developments ( and possible changes) taking place in  the markets recently.  There may be some changes in the way things trade moving forward into 2016, so I am keeping an eye on various sectors for follow through and more clues.

   Did you notice that with the $USD rising and the Markets dropping rapidly in 2016,  some commodity stocks  ( a few are shown below as of yesterday )  are resisting the sell off?    WHen I said that the Commodities may be a buy in 2016, I have heard from many that they cant rise if the $USD is rising and markets sell off, since there will be no demand. Hmmm, they are doing that now.   Inflation?   Time will tell.

 

AKS – Gained the 50sma

AKS 1-6

CENX –  Aluminum

CENX

X – US STEEL

X 1-6

 

If you enjoy this type of market commentary, why not consider signing up for a 1 month subscription to see if this helps you in your trading for the month of January?  It is only $37.95/month and you will get 4-5 reports per week ( That Includes a large weekend report) and access to all of the prior reports written. It may just be worth a try 🙂  As always, Thanks for being here and reading along in the public section of the site. 

 

~ALEX