Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Moment Of Truth Time?

October 13, 2015 /39 Comments/in /by

I was a little surprised to see the dollar down and also see the $CRB, $GDX, and $OIL down too.  They've all had nice moves out of their lows, and now it looks like it may be the moment of truth. Time to see if it was just another bear market rally or could it be the start of something more?

WTIC - From the weekend report. I had been expecting the 200sma to offer resistance and a quick dip lower.

WTIC DAILY 10-9

There are a couple of other factors in play that I am watching too at this point.

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Lets Look At The Big Picture

October 12, 2015 /73 Comments/in /by

Every now and then I like to step back for the weekend report and take a look at the Big Picture. I have been reporting for months that I see big picture changes in many sectors starting to take shape.  Lets see if they are advancing or falling apart.

The SPX is approaching resistance. Will it halt the rise, or possibly just give it a pause like we saw in 2011?

SPX WKLY 10-9

Lets look for some clues...

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Base Jumping

October 9, 2015 /12 Comments/in /by

In the premium reports, we've been looking at bullish bases in the Energy and Precious Metals sector lately . Very quickly  they are jumping making some strong moves %-wise.  Explosive gains actually.

For example, this was SGY when I pointed it out.  It ran from $4 to $7 in August/September and then pulled back after hitting resistance at the 50sma, forming an inverse H&S.  When it broke above the 50sma , it was a buy around $6.

SGY

SGY  - 3 days later and it is nearing $10.  Thats $4 to $10 in about 1 month. 

SGY 10-8

EXXI is up 150% in 7 days!

EXXI 10-8

These are obviously getting extended and may be due for a pull back.  That means that it is best to look at other bases that are currently set up, and try to front run some Base Jumping...

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Running The Bases

October 9, 2015 /110 Comments/in /by

We've been looking at bullish bases in the Energy and Precious Metals sector lately. Very quickly  they have been making some strong moves. Explosive gains actually.

For example, this was SGY when I pointed it out.  It ran from $4 to $7 in August/September and then pulled back after hitting resistance at the 50sma, forming an inverse H&S.  When it broke above the 50sma , it was a buy around $6.

SGY

SGY  - 3 days later and it is nearing $10.  Thats $4 to $10 in about 1 month. 

SGY 10-8

EXXI is up 150% in 7 days!

EXXI 10-8

These are obviously getting extended and may be due for a pull back.  That means that it is best to look at other bases that are currently set up, but not extended...

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The Ups And Downs…

October 8, 2015 /149 Comments/in /by

The saying ,  "What goes up must come down"  is true within Bull and Bear markets. Lets take a look at what is going up and what is likely to come back down, keeping in mind that the FED MINUTES are to be released later today.

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I drew this last week to show that I expected the SPX to move up to the purple line

SPX WKLY SIMILARITY

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Gusher

October 7, 2015 /100 Comments/in /by

The Oil and Energy Stocks were leading the way with their recent bullish activity. As pointed out yesterday, the XLE broke out from a downtrend and was probably signaling that OIL was about to follow. Quite a few of the stocks were up 20 - 30% in 1 day yesterday! We'll discuss more about the potential here in a moment, but first lets review the rest of the market action.

SPX-   Resistance is overhead.  A pause below the 50 sma may be building energy to break higher, and a break above could see buyers rush in and push it higher.

SPX 10-6

Why is it possible that this resistance wont hold it back?...

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The Runners

October 6, 2015 /84 Comments/in /by

Yesterday we saw some of the Energy and Mining stocks running swiftly. There are some small bases that have formed in the past few weeks, and now they may be starting a small leg up. Some had Gains of 20 % in one day, which could just be a mix of short covering and a little buying, but they may still continue higher.  We'll take a look at some individual stock set ups like the one below.

SGY - A break above the 50sma, we see a possible Inverse H&S forming.

SGY

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The Real Deal?

October 5, 2015 /69 Comments/in /by

We discussed abnormal cycles in the markets in the last 2 reports, and I want to finish that discussion in the Gold report today. First lets review the other sectors and then we'll see whether or not the moves in Precious Metals are likely to be a few more false starts, or closer to the real deal.

My SPX chart from over 1 month ago is playing out nicely. I expected a test of the lows and a test of the break down as shown here.

20015 Topping SPX

SPX -  Sept 29 we got the test of the lows as expected. Now we should see a reversal higher.

SPX 9-29

SPX WKLY - We got that reversal as this week ended and I expect the SPX , DJIA, QQQ, etc to run higher.

SPX WKLY SIMILARITY

This is what I'm expecting next...

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Abnormal Cycles Part 2

October 2, 2015 /19 Comments/in /by

Part 2 of this mornings Gold report. I'll start with 2 charts that I pointed out  recently in premium reports and in the public post yesterday, indicating some bullishness in the miners...

ABX 9-30

Sept 30 -  GDX buy above the blue line and confirmation above the green dotted line .  We are currently seeing that today  ( we need to close that way)

GDX vs GLD 9-30

Why was this important? Using only Cycles, the volatile  movement in Gold and the Miners was causing concern and looked ready to fail.  While using some of the indicators that I have developed to monitor internals at the lows,  I was still seeing bullishness in a number of ways and technical analysis was also leaning toward bullishness, as seen above. I dug a little deeper to try to reconcile the differences and came up with this...

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