Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Buy Sell Or Hold

February 24, 2016 /82 Comments/in /by

I've been expecting a multi week rally in the markets since Feb 11, and so far it is pretty lack luster.  I noticed weakness in the SPX on Monday and mentioned that I thought this would cause the 'rally' to stall.

  I posted this chart, read the writing.

SPX 2-22

The SPX was rejected at the 50 sma.

 

SPX 2-23

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Wash Rinse Repeat

February 23, 2016 /71 Comments/in /by

Well, I had a weekend report with 32 charts and not much has changed in one trading day,  so lets do a little review and then look at some trade set ups.

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Last week we saw a healthy set up for a move higher

SPX 2-17

This week...

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Rockets

February 22, 2016 /34 Comments/in /by

We have been on a rocket ship ride for a month now in Gold & Miners.  Whenever someone posts a "Rocket" as a headline picture in their report,  we usually immediately get a pullback.  I'm ready, so I thought that I would give it a try 🙂

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This is the rocket (this was my chart from Feb 16). 

GOLD 2-16 b

We will discuss Precious Metals in a moment,  but first lets do a complete review starting with the SPX...

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Still Climbing

February 19, 2016 /35 Comments/in /by

Precious metals and especially individual miners keep climbing higher. Wave after wave, the dust buyers and shorts are getting hammered.  This wasn't entirely unexpected, that is why I mentioned taking some profits and letting partial positions ride.  This runaway , melting upward type of move can be rewarding, but cycle wise, it is will  pause or pull back soon.  We'll discuss that. The markets were moving up off of their lows too, but they stalled on Thursday.  Oil turned back down too.  To the charts...

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  It's Friday, so there isnt much to say with only 1 trading day left, but lets take a look and see what we can learn.

This was 1 of my 2 Gold charts from Thursday mornings report. Gold actually hit $1240 as the day went on, so it looks like that flag pattern could form.  While it does look like that Flag pattern could form, I actually think we may see something else too.

GOLD 2-17

Let me show you what I think is happening now...

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Public Post – OIL & GOLD

February 18, 2016 in /by

I'm going to share a portion of the premium report from Tuesday.  We had been invested in Miners from the shake out lows, but most of what was bought has had a spectacular run higher.  Now that there could be a consolidation phase in precious metals, does anything else look interesting?   Have you seen  VALE, FCX, CENX, etc?  Commodities are making some nice steady gains. I'm also looking at The Energy Sector among other things.  From Tuesdays report...

 

I think OIL is putting in lows  (temporary or permanent remains to be seen).   Lets discuss a few ideas as to why I think we are at lows in Oil. 

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On November 13th ,  I said that my OIL WKLY target was $26.09

WTIC WKLY 11-13

Did we hit $26.09?

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Mary, Mary, Quite Contrary, How…?

February 18, 2016 /69 Comments/in /by

Even in the toughest of environments, we see seedlings take root and blossoms shoot up. We also see the same thing happen in the toughest environment in the markets.   At the time it may seem quite contrary, but this is also how bear markets can turn into Bulls.  Are we seeing that now?  lets look at some charts...

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Starting with the SPX. We have expected this rally , but will it lead to new highs, or will it roll over?

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I think that this move is just starting and it can last for a couple of weeks.   Notice how the Rally in October didn't lead to new highs and broke down to lower lows. We have lower highs and lower lows in the markets now. I have drawn in several resistance points and we will see how the markets react as time goes on. This is NOT near a point that I would short it.  I would remain long,  maybe lighten up in a week or so. The BLUE BOX is an idea of what we may see.

SPX 2-17

We will obviously discuss what's unfolding as time goes on, but take a look at this...

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Public Post – A Precious Metals Review

February 16, 2016 in /by

In a recent weekend report I discussed what I thought about the USD going forward, also using the recent action in the XJY as a historical guide.  It could affect Gold in a big way. This is important, since The Big Picture of the USD has paused and may be preparing to choose a direction […]

Weighing The Evidence

February 14, 2016 /40 Comments/in /by

Bull? Bear? Bias?  We caught The Lows in Miners a few weeks ago, and the rally has surely gone beyond my expectations.  I now see many are calling THE END to the 4+ year bear market and calling the start to another phase of the Bull market in Gold.   So was the action of the past couple of weeks a guarantee of the Bear Market lows being in?  It's best to weigh the evidence and try to allow the facts to speak for themselves.  Lets continue to look at all of the markets and weigh the evidence. 

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SPX BIG PICTURE - My readers know that I have been calling for the bear market drop in the markets since early last summer. We just landed in a very interesting place this week. Notice the dance around the 200 ma on a wkly basis since the 1980's.

SPX 2-12 wkly

Zooming in...

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