Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

If you have never been white water rafting and wondered what it would be like, you just experienced it if you have a position in the markets. Quickly climbing up one white wall and then splashing down the other side, it gets tough to hold on and tough to navigate. One cold splash after another, sometimes people are even tossed off.  That may not be a bad thing, because when rafting in uncharted areas, there may or may not be an unseen huge drop off up ahead. Lets take a look at the markets, and I'll point out what I see.

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Note :  Today is Quadruple Witching. We will probably have some high volume moves today.

SPX WKLY - The weekly chart broke back below 2 key support areas and the blue line needs to hold here at 2000.

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On a day like today it feels like there is so much to say, yet what can be said? Lets do something a little different today.  lets look at what happened on OCT 28, the last Fed Mtg.

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SPX- After Janet finished speaking, the SPX closed higher (Red Arrow). It paused for 2 days, and then had 2 more up days and that was The Top. That Fed Wednesday was exciting, but it was rather short lived when you look back at it.

This is interesting...

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I'm not one to blame news events or market manipulation for all of the moves that the market makes, but this Fed decision is likely already one that is affecting the markets.  The charts are showing signs of change, so lets dig deep and see what we can find.

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SPX WKLY- DO you see weakness in recent weeks in our 'Bull market'?

Pullbacks of 10 % can be healthy in a bull market, but lets take a deeper look...

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With only 4-5 trading days left until the Fed meeting next Tuesday & Wednesday, I'm not just watching what the markets do today, but also trying to discern how they could be aligned going into that Fed Mtg.  Lets start with the $USD.

USD - as of Dec 4, the weekly chart of the Dollar bounced off of one of its important supports, the 10ma. I didnt like the MACD set up, this looks like a double top, at least temporarily.

But by Dec 7 it looked like a Bear Flag was forming on the daily chart.   More downside likely.

That Bear Flag gave way, losing the 50sma yesterday and

That 10 ma weekly support has been breached ( so far) too. Notice that this never happened in the strong bull run higher from July 2014 to March 2015.

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Have a plan, and stick to it.  If something moves rapidly in the wrong direction, don't get upset and don't panic. Remain as calm as possible, take action if necessary.  These are my rules for walking the Serengeti and Trading.  🙂

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GOLD BOTTOMS -

Lately Golds lows have been hard for some to hold. "Have a plan and stick to it. If something moves rapidly in the wrong direction, don't get upset and don't panic...."

More on precious metals later

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SPX - It will be interesting to see where we are on Dec 15th. This could break down or form a triangle here.

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