Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

The weekend report discussed Turning Points. Though I have laid out my big picture expectations, I also mentioned that at turning points it is important to continue to examine clues from an unbiased view point. Sometimes subtle changes at turning points can either alter the bigger picture or confirm it.  I discussed a few changes developing in my weekend report, so lets continue to examine any clues that may appear.

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SPX - Our run higher still resembles the run higher last fall in many ways. I am expecting a dip down into a DCL soon,  but the move out of that daily cycle low is going to be important to watch. It is not time to short this market yet. As the market rises , I see a bearish wedge and lighter volume. We wait for the dip.

Usually at tops  (even temporary tops) , the VIX gets down near $12 -$13. Spikes higher in the vix can lead to bottoms, and a spike lower can signal a top. The vix is low enough, but a spike lower would probably signal a temporary top.

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Quad witching can add volume and a little volatility to the trading day, so I just wanted to do a review of the markets and discuss a few trades.

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Let me start with the IWM this time. I actually like this set up for a run to the 200msa. We'll see if Quad witching helps or hinders things. This does look bullish.

I wanted to start with the IWM, because...

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Nobody wants to take unnecessary risks in the market, but the saying "Nothing ventured, nothing gained" applies too.  So you have heard me mention looking for "Low risk entries",  but what is that? It is timing an entry where the risk to the downside is minimal, and the gain on the upside outweighs it. We will discus that further later in this report.

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SPX -Friday is Quad witching. The Fed didn't kill the markets this time, but that wasn't a very convincing push either, was it?

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The short term trade set ups seem pretty clear, but with that Fed Wednesday Meeting rapidly approaching, the end of the week could host a number of reactions. Lets see how things are currently unfolding . 

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SPX - This bearish wedge was forming last week  (March 9 chart).

The SPX did  drop quickly and recovered last week, as seen here.  Is this still a wedge though?

The Fed Mtg is approaching and could affect the outcome.

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Quick update on the Pullbacks...

SPX - Remember that Wedge from March 9 below? I still expected it to run to the 200sma , and then a drop to the 50sma in a 1/2 cycle low.

SPX - The 2 spike down days could be changing the way that lower trend line looks. The SPX has the run up /sideways/ run up/ sideways look. It is in a congested resistance area,  this as it heads into next weeks fed mtg.  That is where it bears watching  ( For strength or weakness).

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