Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

About Alex - Chart Freak

I’ve been a full time trader for well over a decade and began trading in the late 1990s while working in management and sales at a well-known aerospace company. As my style evolved, so did my success, and it allowed me to leave corporate America to pursue my passion and trade full time.

Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Digging Deeper

December 21, 2015 /23 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

This is one of those weekend reports were there was a need to dip deeper and investigate several areas of the markets. Why? In the last report you may recall that I discussed how the recent trading reminded me of riding the White Water Rapids. For example the SPX was up about 75 points for 3 days heading into the Fed Mtg, and then it dropped down about 70 points for the next 2 days. Gold rallied with the Fed Wednesday , sold off Thursday, and rebounded Friday. Is there a waterfall ahead, or will this river smooth out? Lets dig in for clues as to what may lie ahead.

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SPX - I posted this wkly chart to show 'weakness' in the indicators that I was using. This would indicate that more downside was likely.

Take a good look at this chart of the SPX. Later in this report I will explain why it is important...

White Water Rafting

December 18, 2015 /45 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

If you have never been white water rafting and wondered what it would be like, you just experienced it if you have a position in the markets. Quickly climbing up one white wall and then splashing down the other side, it gets tough to hold on and tough to navigate. One cold splash after another, sometimes people are even tossed off. That may not be a bad thing, because when rafting in uncharted areas, there may or may not be an unseen huge drop off up ahead. Lets take a look at the markets, and I'll point out what I see.

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Note : Today is Quadruple Witching. We will probably have some high volume moves today.

SPX WKLY - The weekly chart broke back below 2 key support areas and the blue line needs to hold here at 2000.

Whats Ahead?

December 17, 2015 /35 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

We finally got an interest rate hike out of one of the 2015 Fed Meetings. It appears that various market sectors seemed to like what they saw. Lets review...

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SPX - The SPX looks Bullish, but I do want to share both a bullish and also a bearish version.

This is the bearish version...

Is It Fed Wednesday Again?

December 16, 2015 /48 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

On a day like today it feels like there is so much to say, yet what can be said? Lets do something a little different today. lets look at what happened on OCT 28, the last Fed Mtg.

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SPX- After Janet finished speaking, the SPX closed higher (Red Arrow). It paused for 2 days, and then had 2 more up days and that was The Top. That Fed Wednesday was exciting, but it was rather short lived when you look back at it.

This is interesting...

What’s The Big reveal?

December 15, 2015 /6 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

In case one couldn't tell , "It's A Fed Thing". I thought that maybe it would be a little quiet leading up to the Fed declaration on Wednesday and then we'd see a little fireworks, but its a Fed Thing. Things started shaking up long before Wednesday. Lets take a look.

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SPX WKLY - from the weekend report, the weekly looks a bit bearish.

SPX DAILY - from the weekly report. I did mention that we could bounce off of support, but will it get that far?

Todays reversal looked quite convincing, so has my thinking changed?

‘ Who’ Cares- Another Fed Week

December 14, 2015 in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

I'm not one to blame news events or market manipulation for all of the moves that the market makes, but this Fed decision is likely already one that is affecting the markets. The charts are showing signs of change, so lets dig deep and see what we can find.

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SPX WKLY- DO you see weakness in recent weeks in our 'Bull market'?

Pullbacks of 10 % can be healthy in a bull market, but lets take a deeper look...

Quick Ideas

December 11, 2015 /23 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

I just wanted to post a couple of quick thoughts before the weekend. I will post a couple of charts from yesterdays report, because nothing has really changed there, and a couple of new ones.

WTIC - This chart is from yesterday. That swing low did not hold, and I do not believe that it was a dcl that failed quickly. I still expect a bounce, but I think that would only be a Dcl, not an ICL in my opinion. After yesterday we are under the B.B. again. DCL soon.

Take A Hike

December 10, 2015 /19 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

With only 4-5 trading days left until the Fed meeting next Tuesday & Wednesday, I'm not just watching what the markets do today, but also trying to discern how they could be aligned going into that Fed Mtg. Lets start with the $USD.

USD - as of Dec 4, the weekly chart of the Dollar bounced off of one of its important supports, the 10ma. I didnt like the MACD set up, this looks like a double top, at least temporarily.

But by Dec 7 it looked like a Bear Flag was forming on the daily chart. More downside likely.

That Bear Flag gave way, losing the 50sma yesterday and

That 10 ma weekly support has been breached ( so far) too. Notice that this never happened in the strong bull run higher from July 2014 to March 2015.

Watching Paint Dry

December 9, 2015 /39 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

Tuesday was a little like watching paint dry in the markets. Not a lot has changed, but it is important to watch how the various sectors set up going into the Fed Mtg next Wednesday. How they approach that Dec 16 decision might give clues as to which direction the next move will take.

SPX - This was Dec 7 and the markets dropped a bit, but remain above the 50sma for now.

SPX - Tuesday it is still holding the 50sma, but at this point I see signs of internal weakness , not strength.

Remain Calm

December 8, 2015 /33 Comments/in Premium /by Alex - Chart Freak

Have a plan, and stick to it. If something moves rapidly in the wrong direction, don't get upset and don't panic. Remain as calm as possible, take action if necessary. These are my rules for walking the Serengeti and Trading. 🙂

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GOLD BOTTOMS -

Lately Golds lows have been hard for some to hold. "Have a plan and stick to it. If something moves rapidly in the wrong direction, don't get upset and don't panic...."

More on precious metals later

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SPX - It will be interesting to see where we are on Dec 15th. This could break down or form a triangle here.