Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

If you have been here for a few months, then you know that this is what we have been waiting for.  Lets review.

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GDX -  Way back in August I started to ready us for a deeper pull back than many at that time would think is likely. You may recall that I kept saying that a solid target was $22-$24 and I said to look for that steep drop at the end of September or beginning of October.

This chart from Aug 22 is an example of me preparing us for a coming buying opportunity. I expected a bounce first, then a steep drop.

My Weekly chart showed GDX broke the weekly uptrend line. A wkly trend line break for an 8 month trend is 'ugly', and indicates that a yearly cycle low is coming.  That magenta box became the likely target after that bounce at $22-$24 shown  in Sept/ Oct.   We would monitor things a little closer when we got there.  

We are there, time to monitor things a bit more closely. 🙂

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Lets take a look at what appears to be some good energy.

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 WTIC -

As expected, Oil is following through to the upside. Sitting near the August highs, it could form a handle on this mini cup , or it may just power higher to the June highs.

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Lets talk about the current window of opportunity

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WTIC - Wednesday I said that this break out looked legit.

WTIC -  And Thursday we saw follow through, but...

This is what I really want you to see ...

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I've seen choppy markets before, but it seems like Oil and Gold are up one day, down the next , up one day, down the next.  It can be very difficult to navigate the choppiness, but Cash is also a position until we get a nice trending market.  Other trade set ups are an option too. Lets take a look at the charts.

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SPX - Short term I see a choppy triangle forming, and the larger picture might be forming a rising wedge. We can look for follow through with a break down or a break out.

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I mentioned in a few of my August reports that things could remain a bit choppy going forward, especially if we are entering the timing for an ICL in Gold & Miners.  We saw this in both OIL and Precious Metals markets in the past, and I will again point that out in this report.  That type of price action can be frustrating, because the trade set ups quickly break down and the price action becomes more or less sideways. Lets take a look at what we currently see and discuss what we could expect.

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SPX - Our daily chart had a possible Island Bottom Reversal, but the gap closed and it lost the 50sma. This is not overly concerning at this point, but I liked the idea of an island bottom.

SPX WKLY - This still looks like a great weekly set up.

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