June 28 – Continuations
Friday we saw the initial reaction to the Brexit vote, and Monday we saw some follow through. Lets look at the charts...
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From the weekend report...
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Read MoreArchive for year: 2016
Read MoreJune 25 Weekend Report … KA-Boom!
Last week the General markets went through a period of indecision. Each morning the futures were green, then the markets sold off into the close. We had the Fed giving testimony to congress and the Brexit Vote scheduled for the end of the week.
After the Brexit vote, the future went Ka-Boom, with Gold up almost $100 at one point, and the general markets ( in the US/ and globally) panicked.
.SPX - The Dow closed down over 600 points, the NASDAQ was down over 200 points, and the Spx was down about 76 points. That is a rather ugly candle.
The ICL (Lows) were not broken, but...
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LOCKED IN AND LOCKED OUT
Some are locked into positions for better or for worse, others may be locked out of positions ( MINERS) that they hoped to own on the next run higher. We have been buying and adding. Anyone holding leveraged positions may be in for quite a ride. Lets have a quick look...
.At Chartfreak, I announced that I thought the next important low (ICL) was in for Gold 3 weeks ago and began to buy miners. Confirmation of that ICL came a little while later with a trend line break and a few other factors. I drew these expectation in my Gold chart for June 14th, a possible run to $1400+.
While the BREXIT vote was going on Thursday, I decided to take a snap shot of Gold before I left for dinner. This is where we were at. I also thought that we could tag or slightly break the 50sma ( shake out) and then move higher. We hit the $1255ish area, just below the 50sma.
Later Thursday night, this is what we had. Unbelievable! Gold was up $85, and the Dow Futures were down $677. The NIKKEI was down $1430 ! The US Dollar was up almost 3!
What next?
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Here It Comes!
We are THAT much closer to the Brexit vote and it is being discussed on any and every financial media outlet available. Here is the 'kicker', did you know that it is forbidden that the vote be reported by the British media after the voting begins? Yes, that's right, they can report on it right up until the voting begins, and then there will be NO UPDATES all Thursday, no exit polls, no nothing. Until all the votes are counted, the British media is forbidden to report on it. So Thursday is the last day that the markets will function as pre-brexit markets. Are you ready for more of this...
.SPX - Not very dramatic so far, but it is holding above the 50sma and remains close to former highs.
What else have we seen this week?
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A Closer Look
So far this week is pretty much playing out as expected with the combination of the Fed testimony and the upcoming Brexit Vote, but a comment by Tess in the chat area had me wanting to take a closer look at Precious Metals. Things are still exactly as expected, but a slight variation in cycle count may be in order. Lets have a review of our markets first...
.SPX- As expected so far
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June 21- Groundhog Day?
Monday we awoke to a Gold and Silver slam down, and the futures for just about everything else was pointing to a higher open. As the day went on, Gold and silver went higher and the general markets sold off into the close. Tuesday, the futures show pretty much the same. Will today bring what we saw yesterday? Janet Yellen is testifying before congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Thursday is the Brexit vote, so it seems that many do not want to commit ahead of time, we may just get more of the same.
.DJIA- The Dow regained the 50sma intraday, but then sold off into the close.
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June 20 Trade Ideas
Please read the weekend report, this is part 2. I wanted to post a few trade ideas...
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WKEND REPORT – brEXIT STAGE LEFT
The Fed Decision is behind us and just when we thought that maybe we could enjoy a week free from extreme volatility, we have BREXIT this week. The vote regarding the European Union is on Thursday, and that could give us another week of volatility. That said, by using Cycle analysis and Technical analysis, we have been expecting a certain outcome and things do seem to be lining up as anticipated. Lets do a review.
.SPX- We may have seen a 1/2 cycle low. This would lean more to the bullish side indicating that the current consolidation is building steam to attempt a break out. This looks like a 'W' pattern with a handle.
The W-Pattern is a bullish pattern mentioned in William O'Neil's Books. This one ran to $800, and is currently at $1800.
That is not the only Bullish chart on our Brexit Week, there are more ...
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Public Report – The Uphill Climb
The Uphill Climb
When a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb is always easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness, even drop back and pursue a different path to the top. I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. (Long term they remain bullish in my opinion), WTIC - This was June 14 and we were on day 50 of a Cycle, so it was already late in crude oil's daily cycle and I was expecting a low soon.
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Not Always An Easy Climb
When a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb may be easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness, even drop back and pursue a different path to the top. I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. They remains bullish long term in my opinion. We will discuss that briefly, but first...
.SPX - SPX put in a reversal on Thursday just as it started to lose the 50sma. We'll see if there is any follow through to its recovery today.
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