PUBLIC POST – PROGRESS

Lets review the movement in various areas of the market that we at Chartfreak have been charting.  We will look for Progress in what we have expected.

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SPX  Nov 20- We expected a back test and drop months ago when it seemed like EVERYONE was uber bullish

DECEMBER –  H&S

Obviously we all know that January has been brutal for “longs’, great for those “shorting”. Is it over?   Well I do expect a good size bounce soon  ( multi week even) , but when everyone becomes bullish again, I’ll be watching the downside …

What about THE DOLLAR…

I’ve been pointing out another double top like last spring, and that makes a monthly double top too.  A drop in the dollar in 2016 would be bullish for commodities and precious metals.  A  much hated area in the past 5 years.

Currently this is my recent view of the Dollar.

OIL – I’m looking for LOWS.  We have short term lows in place, and I pointed out in my report that we CLOSED above the 20sma for the first time in months.  PROGRESS.

but it may be LONGER TERM lows too.  WHY?  My November chart .  ‘5’ may be completed now . PROGRESS. 

NATGAS –  We’ve been watching NATGAS.  It too is making progress.  Remember when everyone was extremely bearish and thought it would drop to $1? I believed a low was imminent. 

To be honest – I did not expect the type of snap back rally that we had however.  That was strong short covering and buying.  I expect higher price, but recently  it  did dip and then looked like a bear flag MIGHT be forming.  SO I drew this with a cautionary note.  Yesterday NATGAS made some important PROGRESS.

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GOLD SILVER & MINERS

Lets just look at charts of progress that I posted as time went onward. Many were very nervous with Gold lingering at lows, thinking we must drop to under $1000 first.  Here is what we at Chartfreak were watching .

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GOLDS TRIANGLE BOTTOM identified as of DEC.  Bullish MACD & RSI.

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Break out – I was  also looking for a back test of that triangle,  as drawn.

We got the BACK TEST.  That was a 2nd BUY opportunity in Gold.  The 50sma was tested.    ( Progress)

I pointed out that in this GOLD Triangle of the summer of 2012,  GOLD back tested/ Miners tested lows , and both took off.  That just happened now too.

SILVER JAN 28 –  Silver has formed a sort of triangle too.  It back tested it yesterday .  Will it hold?  I gave confidence in my weekend report and mid week that shows an indicator that I use is bullish for Silver.   Slow Progress , but Silver can get explosive when it makes its move  🙂

MINERS  WKLY CHART- Gold was looking good, Miners sold off to lows  ( Like 2012 triangle).  This was a “Shake out & recovery ” candle . This was a BUY for miners. 

GDXJ was a buy last Friday too.

We started a pullback in Gold and Miners yesterday after a nice run higher this week.  IS this run done? Was it just a short covering frenzy?    Or is it making progress, possibly following this track? 

I will be covering that in the weekend report along with other ideas in other sectors of the markets.

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Happy trading ,

~ALEX