PUBLIC POST: Embracing The Big Picture
As 2015 started to wind down in December, I began to lay out in my weekend reports a little more of the Big Picture changes that I think we might see as we head into 2016. I decided to post a few of those charts here.
SPX – This idea has been discussed in detail for weeks actually. This is my chart from October 16 weekend report. It continues to take time to see whether this will become a major break down or just a normal correction. Allow these charts from prior reports to point out the weakness that I was seeing as time went on.
Was this just a back test?
The RUT/ IWM / NYC etc were not recovering to former highs with the other markets after the August drop.
So what about other areas of the markets as we move into 2016?
The $USD had a great run, and many feel that it is headed to 120. It could happen, but I have had my doubts since the summer. I am thinking that we may just get a double top. This was my November chart pointing out a possible stall as it approached the 100 area. So far it has followed the blue arrow and is now moving higher again. ( See the next chart)
The last time the Dollar was set up like this ( See March – May 2015 on this chart) , it surged to the 100 area and rolled over. A similar move here would look like a double top on a wkly chart. ( So far we have moved higher above the blue line as expected).
A big change that could be coming in 2016 is that we may actually see an end to some of the prolonged selling in the $CRB, $WTIC, $NATGAS, $GOLD GDX , etc. Cycle timing allows for these areas to bottom.
I already called for the lows in NATGAS here. It took off much quicker than I expected, and I missed the buy hoping for a pullback to the 20sma, but now the 2nd chart shows a possibility that I am looking for here.
OIL – Long term support is in this area, and that looks like a Bullish Descending Wedge forming. There is a possibility that 2016 will see the rise in Oil, similar to what occurred in 2009. You dont want to miss a move like that in Oil stocks The % – Gains can be huge. We are monitoring things .
I was actually looking for an initial $35 .16 target and then a deeper $26 target as a final low based on my weekly charts, but I am wondering if that $26 target will be seen. Oil hit $34.53 for its recent low.
Gold Big Picture – We may see a Bottom in Gold in 2016, and there is even a possibility that we have seen it in 2015. I know that everyone is waiting to buy at $1000 or less Gold, and it could happen, but the markets do not often give the crowd what they expect. I actually expect a rally soon ( at least a solid bounce).
I did a special weekend report with a study showing how GOLD has acted in rising interest rate environments in the past. NOTICE: As Gold & Silver dipped down to new lows in November and December, miners DID NOT break their lows. Some Miners bottomed already, did you notice that? Lets look at a few, but first notice that the HUI bottomed in late 2000, and GOLD and SILVER did not – they bottomed later in 2001. MINERS BOTTOMED FIRST. Is that possibly happening now?
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I have been pointing out to my readers that there are :
Miners that have lows in place, while GOLD & SILVER broke down to new lows in November & December 2015.
NG – This is an older chart (Dec 4) , but it is still valid for my point. As Gold was selling off to new lows in December, I showed that Nova Gold bottomed in 2013. This is a healthy looking base.
SA – This is a beautiful chart when you consider that Gold broke down to new 5 yr lows in December. This has repeatedly presented itself as a buy since the summer. SA has almost tripled this year.
BAA – This junior Miner actually seems to have double bottomed in late 2014, and is forming a large base and another double bottom in 2015.
MUX – I pointed out that MUX bottomed in the summer of 2015 so far. This is a solid looking base.
MUX CURRENTLY –
GPL – Silver broke down to 6 yr lows and a small silver stock didnt care.
In Summary: This is just a quick overview of some of the interesting developments ( and possible changes) taking place in the markets recently. There may be some changes in the way things trade moving forward into 2016, so I am keeping an eye on various sectors for follow through and more clues.
Did you notice that with the $USD rising and the Markets dropping rapidly in 2016, some commodity stocks ( a few are shown below as of yesterday ) are resisting the sell off? WHen I said that the Commodities may be a buy in 2016, I have heard from many that they cant rise if the $USD is rising and markets sell off, since there will be no demand. Hmmm, they are doing that now. Inflation? Time will tell.
AKS – Gained the 50sma
CENX – Aluminum
X – US STEEL
If you enjoy this type of market commentary, why not consider signing up for a 1 month subscription to see if this helps you in your trading for the month of January? It is only $37.95/month and you will get 4-5 reports per week ( That Includes a large weekend report) and access to all of the prior reports written. It may just be worth a try 🙂 As always, Thanks for being here and reading along in the public section of the site.
