Archive for year: 2015

Have you been trading Gold, Silver, or maybe some of the Miners recently?  They have been quite volatile lately, with many good traders being stopped out and frustrated. I was recently stopped out last week, when some miners did a false break higher above their 50sma, only to turn down and close below the 50sma again.

That may cause some to wonder, “Is this a trap?” and  “Why does this keep happening?” Others outright scream, “Bear market rally is over, down we go and soon!  Go short!”  Since anything could happen, I wanted to look at some charts.

 

ABX – Sure this could break down, but its actually sporting a bullish descending wedge, a rising MACD, and isnt it possible that we are just looking at a bottoming process? 

NEM – It is struggling for sure, but is it basing out or ready to break down?   It actually looks like a base is building with that divergence in the MACD & RSI. This could be building energy for a break above the 50sma.

 

I am writing because I do hear many people saying to short the miners for a big drop coming.  At this point, I look at ABX and NEM and I see the possibility of an upside pop soon. ABX and NEM are major components of GDX, so if you were thinking of going short , I would say to stay away from JDST and DUST until the true direction of the Metals and Miners presents itself clearly.

 

  Consider this:  Not all Miners are at recent lows and ready to fall apart.   Take a look at the following charts.  These had their lows back in July and are currently holding onto gains.   Was this reversal just a stop run? 

This was yesterday when Gold was down $15

SO I am watching a number of things , including cycles and other clues to shape my view of what may be going on in the precious metals markets.  I will also cover more in the premium report Friday morning.  Care to join u for a month?   Thanks for being here. 

 

~ALEX

 

Consider a membership at the Chartfreak…it’s just $95 for three months.

Membership Options >>>> http://www.chartfreak.com/my-secrets/

 

 

Yes, Gold is jumping, but we’ve seen that before, right?   The question is , ” Will it make it to it’s intended target, or land flat and flounder around like a (gold) Fish out of water?”   Here at Chartfreak, we have been waiting for this next leg higher. Lets review some of the charts from recent premium reports…

GOLD,SILVER,& MINERS

 

 

GOLD SEPT 22 – Looks great on day 7. The first run up went from $1072 to $1169.  It could pull back even further and still look very Bullish, but it doesn’t have to. We are in our second daily cycle and I expect that Gold could run to at least $1200. We will monitor it along the way.

Silver – pretty big 1 day drop, but it has not moved down with Gold on the last 2 days, so it is not a broken chart by any means.  Notice similar 1 day drops in July and August that had no follow through. I wanted to see those moving averages  hold, and I am also watching the trend lines drawn.

 

GDX –  Yes, GDX fell more than I expected.  I was looking for the 10 SMA to possibly  hold as support.  The chart is not broken and I’ll show you why…

 

GDX (2)– Looking back at last Nov-Dec when we were dropping into a 2nd daily cycle  (RED ARROW) .  We took off and curled back down  to the lows again ( 2nd red arrow) before a nice blast off higher into January. We could be seeing that here, thats why I say the chart is not broken.

 

   Some were not happy with the action in GDX  (understandably) , so As a reminder , I posted this in last nights  premium report.

 Here is a close up of that period last Dec 2014.  GDXJ popped and dropped to shake out weak hands.  This looked  exactly like what we were seeing now. Compare these 2 charts below together.  The 1st is last Dec and the 2nd is today. Twins. 

.  

What happened next? This is the same chart of last December as the anticipated run started. The red arrow points to where the first chart above ended.

Conclusion:  We were in the 2nd daily cycle and a rally should begin soon unless something is very wrong. I also looked at the 2 charts below and declared them bullish, to further the case for a bullish move in the near future. They are larger components of GDX.   Bullish descending wedges.

 

Today we have this  (Click to isolate)

GDX  2 hrs into trading

 

I have been calling for another leg up, but many were growing weary  (understandable with that GDX drop) . The above analysis was designed to help my readers to see the possibility and likelihood of the coming move higher.  We saw dips like that before, right before a rally.  It’s time to go shopping friends.  Find your favorite Miners and gather a basket, start small if you have your doubts.  Were you confidently expecting a move higher in Gold?  Do you still have doubts?   Though we saw weakness in Miners, we were still expecting a move higher in Gold , and we were watching for the Miners to get on board.  Today we are seeing positive follow through.

I will be covering some set ups in future premium reports, and also navigating this move forward, since I believe we have started the next leg higher. Why not try a 1 month sign up? Thanks for being here!

~ALEX