On The Right Track?

I wanted to post a picture of something where glue was just melting and everything was becoming unglued, because Wednesday morning I saw quite a bit of Green on my screen and by the close things become a little unglued.  So it raises the question,  "Are things still on the right track?"  Lets look at the charts.

DJIA - Wednesdays rally hit the 20sma and back tested that down trend line, and then promptly gave it up.  I actually think this type of action could lead to a nice post Fed rally next week. For now it is difficult to trade.

DJIA 9-9 Read More

Timing The Trade

Now that we have seen some steady selling in various areas of the markets, some set ups look ready to buy again. Before discussing these set ups, lets review the markets in general.

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NASDAQ - After the steep drop, we usually see some consolidation and chart repair under the 10sma. Eventually if you get a break back above that 10sma, price often continues higher. We could break back inside this channel, but it was the start of a downtrend. Trading is no longer buy & hold for many.

NAZ 9-8

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ANOTHER STEP CLOSER

Lets see how the various market sectors continue to march toward their next big move.

SPX - Many thought that the recent sell off would recover straight up like the one on the left last October. Did you notice the back tests recently? These are acting like resistance points.

SPX 9-4

Lets look closer...

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Why?

I dont always do a Friday report, because the Thursdays report usually also covers what could follow through on Friday. Since Friday is the last trading day of the week,  the weekend report covers it all.   I wanted to write one today - Just Bcuz.

SPX - This could be a consolidation to push higher or could be forming a bear flag.

SPX 9-3

Yesterday it was noted that even when the markets were higher in the morning, the usual suspects were not joining in. That would be F.B., GOOG, AMZN, etc.

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Target Practice

The following are a few of the charts I’ve posted in recent  Premium section of the website.  I believe we may be seeing a major shift in the markets and the recipients of future money flow just may surprise many. Hint: They have been targeted on the short side for many months and in some cases, even years.  Here are a few things pointed out in a recent reports.

 

SPX  JULY 24 – I have been pointing out  a topping process.  Watch for a drop.

SPX 7-26  crash coming

AUG 24– I did not recommend going short after the first drop, it is often better to wait for a bounce. Tops are a process . Look at the tops of the year 2000 & 2007 below.  It took months to complete a top and even then, after each drop, a solid bounce can be seen  (Blue arrows).

SPX BOUNCE

The weekly USD looks pretty strong.  We saw a reversal off of the 38.2% Fib line  (Amazing, huh?).  I have said that I see weakness short term for weeks now . Was that drop all there was to it?

USD WKLY 8-28

 

USD DAILY –  I actually still  see weakness within the rally, just like I saw in the MAY rally that rolled over.  We could hot 97 , but I think that would be it for this rally.   Commodities are also possibly indicating that the dollars rally is just a bounce.

USD 9-2

 

CRB –  Rising with the dollar this week.  Bullish Engulfing at the lows. Strong divergence on the weekly chart. These lows should hold for several weeks  (possibly being THE commodities low).

CRB WKLY

 

WTIC WKLY  – BULLISH Engulfing Candle at the low. Strong buy last week,  I.M.O.  I see weeks of higher price from this low.

WTIC wkly 8-28

 

WTIC DAILY – I called Aug 27  the FAT PITCH in my recent report, a ‘buy’ on OIL & ENERGY STOCKS.   For oil, the 50sma could cause a temporary pullback,  a buying opportunity.  That has happened this week.  Soon we should move generally higher for weeks.

WTIC 8-28

 

 GOLD,SILVER, & MINERS

 

This is the  Gold charts cycle count. On day 28 it is due for a daily cycle low anytime now.  Even a drop to $1109 does not damage the chart. We should then rally higher.

GOLD 9-2 1

 

Silver weekly –  It is a bullish reversal of sorts.   It could be a high volume capitulation type stop run,  that would be great. We need further improvement this week. I am watching this carefully.

SILVER WKLY 8-28

 SILVER DAILY –   Sept 2 , A  Shake out may have taken place and so far we are moving higher.

SILVER 9-2

GDX –  We see a struggle at the 10sma, but I expect that we will break & close above it soo

 

GDX 9-2

 

GDX:GLD is heading in the right direction. Another buy soon if miners continue to out perform.

GDX vs GLD

 

 Conclusion:

  SO I am cautious about what is happening in the broad markets.  We are seeing a bounce higher, but buyers may get washed out soon.   These are volatile markets and we may be setting up a longer term short.

   I like what I see on the weekly charts with GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, The CRB ,OIL, & ENERGY STOCKS.  They have recently turned bullish.   I mentioned in past reports the bullish set ups developing in  ACI, BTU, AKS, BOOM, X, FCX, VALE, MDR .  With OIL AND ENERGY  I also pointed out many that are also moving nicely higher.   Some energy stocks are up 100% already.

Here at Chartfreak I am watching the various set ups and offering opportunities to buy the pullbacks at low risk entries.  I will include a few of the charts that I used in recent reports. For a low monthly or quarterly price, you can get reports like the above report  4 or 5 times a week.   Thanks for being here.

 

~ALEX

 

FCX – Buy the reversal. Strong volume and above the 10sma.

FCX

 

FCX – Low risk entry, stop below the support.

 

FCX 9-2

AKS –  Low risk buy of a double bottom.

AKS

AKS today – This is still a good set up, support held.

AKS 9-3

EOX –  Sept 1 , this stock is spit adjusted, but it popped almost 100% in 2 days.

EOX 9-1

EOX Currently –  possible bull flag forming or just a move higher.

EOX 9-3

WG– Some Energy stocks trading under $1 have formed long bases. I liked this set up.

WG

WG– Trading at only $0.90 , it was showing signs of life, already up 35%

WG 2

WG–  Then it popped above the 50sma, even better.

WG 9-1

WG – Still moving higher.  So far 20% higher from that $0.90 mark .

WG

Pulling The Trigger

Many times we hear about buying the pullback, but when the pullback comes, it may be too intimidating to pull the trigger. Did you do any buying yesterday? Lets review the market action and also  discuss "Pulling The Trigger".

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SPX - The Spx has turned back down at resistance and has been rejected at the 10sma too. Wednesday the markets reversed back up to the 10 sma. This time it may be able to push higher.

SPX 9-2 Read More

Buy The Dip?

It felt like just about everything in the market was pulling back today. Not all pullbacks will qualify as a 'Buy the dip" candidate, but some may be setting up as a nice opportunity. Lets take a look...

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SPX -  This turned down at multiple resistance areas.

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STATS

This report will be a report on the statistics of what was reported on in the weekend report...

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Moving

In last weeks reports, I was pointing out the things that were moving and really catching my interest.  Lets review and see how things played out and what that can mean going forward.

SPX WKLY - We had a very high volume sell off & reversal this week.  The last 2 stand outs had 2 different immediate reactions.  Aug 2011 just went sideways for weeks, while Oct 2014 recovered strongly. 

SPX WKLY 8 28  

Which one is likely here, or is there another possibility? ...

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The Fat Pitch

I wanted to post tonight because the action today was excellent.  I think we may be getting  the FAT PITCH that traders wait for all year. Lets take a look...

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