Tricky Trading

Are you seeing flashing RED and GREEN lights in your sleep?  You are not alone.  The markets have been volatile and even short term traders may be finding that if you dont lock in immediate gains or at least take partial profits, then next day the trade can flip against you.  lets look at some charts and see where we are currently...

As I write this report, this is where the futures are. A lot of GREEN so far  ( Gold is actually up $4 from the close of 1157.40, I dont know why they show up here as down at 1162.00)


I sent out a cautionary update in the afternoon yesterday,  lets discuss that first ...

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Update July 8

Just a quick note

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Overnight Futures are down - "China is panic crashing" is the word today.  Half of the stocks trading in China were halted to prevent a landslide crash. So far I just see March prices ahead. 3 months ago the SSEC was here.  See the chart of Greed & Fear below.


July 6 chart :  Yesterday I was pointing out several reasons why I would expect to see a reversal higher in the markets.  It appeared that we also found support at the 200sma Monday, but Notice what I wrote on this clip from yesterdays report  (underlined in Red).   It just seemed likely that we would get a stop run below the 200sma and then a reversal higher. LOOK at that CPCE matching OCTOBERS market lows!  (Click to enlarge)


We got the shake out below the 200sma and a reversal. Our futures are down again, will we get another reversal higher today? If so, it could be a buying opportunity, let me explain...

SPX 7-7

Here is the NASDAQ -

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When most people first start trading, they see a market that is running up,up ,up - or falling down, down, down and they want to jump in and get some of that action. What happens? As soon as they make their move the market does a 180 and heads in the opposite direction due to extremes.  We may be at the point that extremes are about to cause some decent bounces. Lets look at some charts.

SPX   July 1 - the original thinking was that this could be a bear flag and become an a-b-c down.

SPX 7-1

SPX - with a lighter volume drop to the 200sma so far , and for other reasons mentioned further in this report, I am thinking we get a bounce here soon.

SPX 7-6

There is a chance that that Bounce is bigger than expected if we get a short covering rally.  Let me explain.

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Lots Of Red So Far

I gathered all of my charts Sunday morning and most of them looked like they were indicating lower prices.  Monday morning , after the Greek Vote,  the color of the day certainly does looks to be RED so far.  Lets take a look at the charts .

Here is a quick glance of the futures as I write


This was my chart for the SPX posted here for July 1- it looked like it might have been a bear flag forming.

SPX 7-1   Read More

Pieces Of The Puzzle

 Once you have all of the pieces of a puzzle  in place, the picture gets quite clear. Unfortunately, I dont think we are quite there yet and today may not help all that much.  Today is the last day before of trading before a 3 day holiday weekend in the United States, and I expect most of the Big Boys will be leaving early. I think we may see some action in the morning, but by 1 p.m. Eastern time, the day may just drift.  With that in mind, lets just see where we are at currently and I'll discuss things in greater detail in the weekend report.

SPX - Is that going to become a 'buy the dips' recovery or just a bounce?  It may even get to the 50sma, we'll have to see.

SPX 7-1   Read More

Greek Solution ?

There is a rumor out that Greece is about to accept a bailout and futures are up strongly. Is it the same old "buy the dip"  that we've seen again and again after every sell off in the markets?  Maybe.  Could it be a back test of the recent break down, only to continue selling off?  To the charts...

SPX - obviously that was a big drop Monday and basically just a pause or bounce so far Tuesday .

SPX 6-30

The jump in the futures brings the SPX back up under the blue trend line...

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