Fuel To The Fire

Nov 18,2014 

   Just a few thoughts here, not much has changed.  I had one reader ask me to review the QQQ’s , so I will do that and also use the SPY as an example, but first GOLD. The outworking  of GOLD continue to look and act  like a “Shake out”  & then the final “Lock Out” have occurred.   I actually have people writing me saying they are going to short the 20sma and also will short again at the 50sma.  One asked me  “I added shorts today , when will you be?”   IF THIS IS A LOCK OUT move, shorting is extremely costly. We might get pullbacks here and there on a daily chart, but A short cover rally accompanied by buying can cause a somewhat pause-less rally and the mental damage can cause one to just freeze. So historically, Please look at this Weekly chart ….

 AUDIO CLICK HERE  click here / press download then click OPEN and come back to follow charts

Better to  short this , or buy the dips?

Next lets cover Gold as I see it this am ( 6a.m.)…

GOLD – yesterday I said we might get a “LOCK OUT ” and showed you this (Click to enlarge)

I awoke to this , and an upside target is $1226 if the price projection gets fulfilled

BUT the way I see it, we could get a pullback first to test the break out. DO NOT be surprised if you see this fall and test the break area (I WOULD like to see the blue line hold though)

So yesterday and in the weekend report , I showed a few Miners that look set up at lows and there has been some great follow through.  RIC is just a beautiful chart at all times. As this plays out , I will explain in the future the implications of what this shake out / lock out “COULD” be for the Miners. Just look at RGLD, RIC, and even the junior  LSG…those are strong charts despite the noise around us.

RIC for example: new highs yesterday

RIC WKLY – this chart is screaming something, isnt it?

SO I guess for those who want  the “CORE” holdings , some may be presenting themselves now.

For the QQQ & SPY request.  It is basically an area that I would not have a trade on the ETFs  (Unless I was long & raising my stops). Individual stocks are mixed, some look excellent, some look to be breaking down,  so I can see this market looks like it wants to “rest” & drop or pullback soon, but it also has a history of making false moves first and THAT can shake people out of longs and shorts.  It also can just go sideways and that would give it enough “Rest” to rejuvenate ,  so let me show you where we are and what I mean.

Notice how SPY –  The recent sideways move looks much like prior sideways moves. First you got a POP, then a DROP.  The POP sucks in long positions and shorts cover, then as it drops, the longs get stopped out. Its tricky

 The weekly Spy chart shows that SEPT was tricky in the same way .  Look at the red arrow, then Green, then Red.

If you were Long or Short, it would have been hard to hold on…so it is difficult for me to say whether we will POP or DROP ? Personally-  I do think we will move lower, volume is dying.

with that above explained –  QQQ WKLY is also indecisive. The red box shows that a sideways move can be boring and difficult to hold. Dead money.

Again, the volume BUYING is dying, so I expect a sideways to down move personally, but I am not trading those etfs currently.

SO Thats it – The Metals and Miners is the place where I see some good action across the boards . ALL miners are starting to look good and that might remind you of a report that I wrote up called the “Signs of life”  , indicating possible accumulation may be starting at lows. I hope you’ve joined in by now. I wish you the best and thanks for being here. Please share this with a friend that you think might benefit from it  (Maybe  re-tweet).  I want to thank all the re-tweeters out there, its appreciated here and hopefully any who have been sent here by you also have benefited from the recent reports of a SHAKE OUT 7 possible LOCK OUT move in Gold Silver and Miners.

~ALEX