Signs of a Lock Out
Monday Nov 17,2014
Just a Quick memo today, because I think that “The weekend report said it all” as far as How I am seeing things and what I am thinking. Now we have to wait and see and look for either follow through or other activity that confirms or negates the things that I mentioned in the weekend report. Also I see that the report did raise a couple of questions that I noticed in a few emails. “What do I do” and “Can I go long?” “Should I hold my DUST & sell on a dip & then Buy a pullback?” Quick review and then a few ideas.
How I feel about DUST & SHORTS. I believe that because of the strong run up (On a FRIDAY) we saw a possible Shake out AND a possible “LOCK OUT”. A LOCK OUT is when they sell prices down and get people to bail out on longs, run the stops, and even encourage heavy shorting, since they break prior “SUPPORT” levels. Those support levels become resistance,right? Since $1179 was support turned resistance , but offered No Resistance on Friday…it is looking like a possible “LOCK OUT” now. $1179 becomes support again. That is when Buyers now have a hard time buying- they have been mentally locked out. They even expect a pullback after Fridays straight up move, so they hold “SHORTS” to sell for at least a little less of a loss. Here is the chart of GOLD FRIDAY – (Click to enlarge)
That run up plowed right through the “Resistance” of $1179 , and…
We now see overnight Sunday and into Monday morning more of a sideways consolidation. THAT can undo overbought prices so that a pullback does not have to come next.
This is GOLD in a 4 hr time frame…what does this look like to you at a quick glance?
If BIG MONEY really wanted to get devious, they could shake out current holders above that support turned resistance, now support of $1179. If they ran those stops and got back inside the above trading range, it would be even more Bullish. Uber Bullish . Even if they did NOT shake new Sunday Night buyers out, and break higher is follow thru to a “LOCK OUT” – so you can see how things are lined up for the Bulls, cant you?
This was GOLD as I write– It is a tight range and a break in either direction should be monitored . A Break below that blue line ($1182) could also still be a shake out of the sideways move. tricky , huh?
WHY is THAT a shake out? Because if you were watching futures last night, this was a buy (Test of break higher) and a stop just below that $1182ish area) click to open
OK – enough MICRO MANAGING , I am bullish and so what can We do if we still need to take a position?
In the weekend report I showed a number of bullish stocks. Other stocks with good fundamentals are still near lows, they should break higher soom, so lets look at a couple of nice looking stocks.
I did have someone say – why dont you just show 2 or 3 stock set ups, then I wont get confused. Others request MANY set ups, to keep an eye on & have more choices. The new website design will have a gallery of the stocks I mention to make it easier to re-visit quickly the set ups mentioned. SO here, I will just mention a couple of stocks that I believe should move shortly. Playing catch up in other words.
EXK
PAAS
AEM just tested 2008 lows on 1/2 the volume on a Monthly last month and is reversing. For those who like the BIGGER companies, GG, RGLD, FNV, AEM look
nice for this and other reasons
I mentioned a few in my weekend report, you can check there too, but here are a couple of bullish looking charts that I highlighted. They are already moving nicely, but you can see that they have more potential too. I would BUY EXK right here . For others maybe above the 20sma. Or Buy the next pullback . I’ll discuss in my following posts if we get more bullish confirmation some more ideas .
As I am writing, I am seeing GOLD Drop, a possible “Shake out” as mentioned above?? Or a break down? (I have heard some say they expect all new lows below the Shake Out lows Nov 7 , and then a reversal. They expect a cough up of all longs purchased ..so let me get this out. I am looking for more of a Lock Out move and bullish follow thru this week. AFTER we see how today plays out, we’ll have a clearer picture and my next reports will likely be chart set ups for long positions. IF we did see GOLD drop and shake out all longs …you may get the opportunity to buy new lows…would you? Its good to review all of these possibilities to get in the right mind set for all of the possibilities. As you know, I am just plain old bullish as mentioned in the weekend report.
My next post will be to help in that area. Thanks for reading along!
~ALEX
P.S. GOLD AS I CLOSE this report at 9:15 – I am watching these areas
Hello Alex.
only just found your site.
Nice bull flags on PMs today.
Hey SonOfGud- Nice to have you here (How did you find me? Twitter?)
yes, I’d like to see the P.M.’s hold above their 10sma while building a little steam to pop thru the 20sma’s overhead. ( And Some of the stronger ones have broken above the 20sma already) . Some good buying opportunities may come about this week, so far so good. Happy Trading!
I saw your twitter stream linked over at The Financial Tap, and checked out your articles.
They look better than many subscriber newsletters… so happy to have found you!
Hello Alex.
only just found your site.
Nice bull flags on PMs today.
Hey SonOfGud- Nice to have you here (How did you find me? Twitter?)
yes, I’d like to see the P.M.’s hold above their 10sma while building a little steam to pop thru the 20sma’s overhead. ( And Some of the stronger ones have broken above the 20sma already) . Some good buying opportunities may come about this week, so far so good. Happy Trading!
I saw your twitter stream linked over at The Financial Tap, and checked out your articles.
They look better than many subscriber newsletters… so, happy to have found you!
They are telling us not to get in their confiscation process; hand me your share else I would further bleed you. Yes, Alex we saw how they baptised new longs over last two Fridays. It isn’t over till they come after you like they did Martin Armstrong. …haha
I read your comment twice- and I dont know what to say to that : ) Hang in there? Its always interesting watching things unfold , So it Should be an fun week. Take Care Matthew
Deutsch bank suggested yes vote this month end is a non-event as its just 1.2 ton per day over 5 years. Deutsch suggested many means to arrive at the required 20%; lease, swap, overnight borrowings and purchase. Unlikely to disrupt market.
What wasn’t mentioned is the positivity in setting prudential precedence for other CBs effecting a new dimension for standardizing gold. This is the best part in the monetising gold.
What does an eerily quiet lock out means alex? Seems like less shorting interest. What catalysts can gold respect to march on?
Alex, after thinking this might be a massive set up for a bull trap I read this newsletter that got me thinking hard to be watchful for new development over next few weeks while remembering you did mentioned recently events might twist down.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/has-trap-been-set
They are telling us not to get in their confiscation process; hand me your share else I would further bleed you. Yes, Alex we saw how they baptised new longs over last two Fridays. It isn’t over till they come after you like they did Martin Armstrong. …haha
Oh ya..expect the unexpected; desperate and destitute moves towards month end…….this is ambushing both new and old bulls, a huge bull trap in the making right after they have got their hand downs?
Let’s see if there would be break out gaps in half hourly charts. A few BOGs would kinda confirm a massive bull trap is inking their plot.
They performed this baptism around NY 9-10am during last two Fridays. Now they seem to shorten the interval. Someone badly want to confiscate our gold. I have threw away the keys to my vault, no mission impossible job would rob mine
I read your comment twice- and I dont know what to say to that : ) Hang in there? Its always interesting watching things unfold , So it Should be an fun week. Take Care Matthew
Deutsch bank suggested yes vote this month end is a non-event as its just 1.2 ton per day over 5 years. Deutsch suggested many means to arrive at the required 20%; lease, swap, overnight borrowings and purchase. Unlikely to disrupt market.
What wasn’t mentioned is the positivity in setting prudential precedence for other CBs effecting a new dimension for standardizing gold. This is the best part in the monetising gold.
What does an eerily quiet lock out means alex? Seems like less shorting interest. What catalysts can gold respect to march on?
Alex, after thinking this might be a massive set up for a bull trap I read this newsletter that got me thinking hard to be watchful for new development over next few weeks while remembering you did mentioned recently events might twist down later. One recent EWT article on kitco had cautioned 1100 as a possible bottom after this would be run up………so yes, hang in a while. I found the keys to my vault, might need that…. Haha who knows.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/has-trap-been-set
watching that eroding POG trendline right now. Not to worry till 1175? but I always worry 🙂
Been thinking there’s a real difficulty en suisse with 300 tons/year of unpapered gold going to market. The MM’s will Not (Cannot) let that happen. period. Flip side. a failure puts the balance of swiss ‘papered physical’ to market.
Watch the press and polls en suise this next 13 days. I’m betting the story will be told by this friday.
watching that eroding POG trendline right now. Not to worry till 1175? but I always worry 🙂
Been thinking there’s a real difficulty en suisse with 300 tons/year of unpapered gold going to market. The MM’s will Not (Cannot) let that happen. period. Flip side. a failure puts the balance of swiss ‘papered physical’ to market.
Watch the press and polls en suise this next 13 days. I’m betting the story will be told by this friday.
Don Wolanchuk”s advice on how to survive as a trader is “Think like a criminal.” Kind of sums it all up, eh?
Absolutely No Doubt
Hey Michael-K , I guess you could say that. You definitely sometimes have to think “Outside the box” and look at the possibility that it’s not always as it appears. To me, its often smoke & mirrors , And in this case : A complete break down didnt lead right into a cascade waterfall sell off. A complete break down of 1.5 yr lows lead to a reversal. : )
Don Wolanchuk”s advice on how to survive as a trader is “Think like a criminal.” Kind of sums it all up, eh?
Absolutely No Doubt
Hey Michael-K , I guess you could say that. You definitely sometimes have to think “Outside the box” and look at the possibility that it’s not always as it appears. To me, its often smoke & mirrors , And in this case : A complete break down didnt lead right into a cascade waterfall sell off. A complete break down of 1.5 yr lows lead to a reversal. : )
anyone else get locked in (be)for this lockout.
Thanks again Alex for the generousity of your observations.
Just btw. Those look like cows to this cowboy!
If you look closely at the one closest to me…The horns were cut down, but you can see the nubs. : )
Then again…I’ve seen what looks like a BULL in many markets and then they got their horns clipped too- lol
anyone else get locked in (be)for this lockout.
Thanks again Alex for the generousity of your observations.
Just btw. Those look like cows to this cowboy!
If you look closely at the one closest to me…The horns were cut down, but you can see the nubs. : )
Then again…I’ve seen what looks like a BULL in many markets and then they got their horns clipped too- lol