“TIMING”!
Oct 8, 2014 “Timing Is Everything”
– Have you ever heard that expression? Well today, Timing was both Good and Bad for me, but thankfully for me (and everyone else too)…there is always a little more time. I was drawing up charts this morning for another Bullish Report. This was how my day started and how Timing was both Good and Bad. In this weekends report here at Chartfreak, I was writing about expecting a market reversal higher. SO MANY people were calling for a steep sell off. ‘October Crash’ I kept hearing and I wrote about the group think in the weekend report. I heard that a 20% correction was coming on CNBC yesterday and I saw this sentiment reading below (THANKS TO TICKER SENSE) as too bearish. I just cant get comfortable following the crowd .
And talk about BEARISH – Metals & Miners were going to $800 to $1000 within a month. I have been mentioning that I expect those MEANINGFUL Lows to come anytime now, and for several reasons. Yes, Selling could continue later, but I feel that we are at an exhaustion point in both Cycle “Timing” and other areas. But wait- What report? I didnt post a report this morning, did I? …
Well talk about “Timing”… I chipped my back tooth eating pistachios while drawing up those charts! Mucho Pain & ‘BAD TIMING’- I wanted to release that update before the markets opened since today was Fed Minutes Day. Instead I made a call to my dentist. He said he could fit me in – at 2 p.m. WHAT? Fed Minutes come out around 2 P.M. …More Bad Timing!! Thankfully someone switched with me and I got in later at 3:30 p.m. The REAL TIMING came with FED MINUTES. Did you see it? Did you catch it? I believe the MEANINGFUL lows in Metals and Miners has actually arrived along with that market reversal.
[ If someone is new here & wants to review my prior thinking,
This was my report about a meaningful & trade able low in Metals / Miners (click here) GOLD UPDATE
This is 3days ago , my weekend report on a Reversal in the Markets Grace Under Pressure ]
First Metals and Miners.
Today – Fed Minutes came out and it was like the spark on That Powder Keg of bearish sentiment
THAT is the time to act. ‘It’s all about the Timing’ then. When sentiment gets THAT bearish and with Shorts heavily shorting, something triggers a reversal and strong volume comes in, you often get a flood of “Short Covering”, then people start “Buying” , and what is known as a “Rip Your Face Off” rally can ensue . The rally out of the May 2013 lows was that type of rally once it got moving. It didnt pause long enough to allow a comfortable entry, because the Shorts just wanted out of their positions. This can be just a 1 or 2 day event, but I have seen it become a day after day event too, as some shorts try to wait it out and finally just toss in the towel while momentum buyers jump in.
Notice the MAY lows and how hard it would be to enter once it started upward
SO leading up to Fed Minutes – I was watching to see Volume selling dry up going into the Fed Minutes. Would it accelerate again downside with the minutes? Would BUYERS finally step in and would the shorts cover?
In EITHER CASE, I want to watch the volume,since selling was drying up . This was JNUG 5 minute chart today. In 10 Minutes I saw a drastic change.
The Move looked very real –
I started scanning all my favorite Miners- HUGE reversals and Volume . This move could have follow through from short covering alone. I was Buying it.
I HATED that I had to leave for the dentist soon, Timing was everything! I couldnt write a report in the time remaining, because I wouldnt be there for the close.
SO I jumped on Stocktits briefly and wrote back & forth with some friends.
I also sent these charts to a relative at about 2:15. The Move had begun & I have been trying to convince him that a meaningful low is imminent. Trade-able anyways.
2:20 P.M. Miners are taking off, here was a lagger. Click to enlarge. Even a “Bounce” could be huge.
By the end of the day, So many ( like EGO & FSM below) were very strong reversals.
In my prior report, I had written how some Miners looked strong amid the Metals destruction, some gave way this week and may just as quickly recover.
EGO couldnt even fill a Gap 1/2 way down amidst Golds breakdown. (Click chart)
FSM – A Sliver stock with Silver breaking down hard? STRONG reversal today.
I am NOT writing this to say you missed the reversal (if you didnt take a position today). I’m writing this in case you work full time and literally missed the reversal. This can show you what I was watching and why I see this as a possible Rally about to unfold. We could get a pullback and it may offer an entry. We may not. If its a run-away move like in MAY – JUNE 2014 as seen above, maybe a small position in a Miner or Two to start, and if there are pullbacks , one could then add. If there arent any buy-able pullbacks , at least you have some skin on the game. There are some beaten down, over done to the downside Miners that could Pop nicely over the next week or 2.
As a reminder, the DEC lows 2013 were horrible out of the gate. It was like riding a BULL alright. See below- but if it’s All About The Timing, Now looks like a good time to grab a Miner or two.
As for the charts that I said I was drawing up this morning when I had to stop? They were simply to disagree with the bearish group think that I had been hearing.
When looking at a puzzle…you need more than one piece to see the big picture. Someone wrote that we broke and closed below the 50sma…so the markets are going to fall.
We broke trend line support, so markets are going to fall.
Its October, Markets are going to fall. etc etc.
All valid points by themselves to consider, but as I mentioned….Sentiment had become ugly and FED MINUTES could trigger a change, so I wanted to point out this morning that charts didnt look quite ready to drop hard yet to me. I drew the following charts to show what I was seeing.
QQQ it has been somewhat parabolic, and even if it dropped to 92 it would tag the 34 weekly Moving Avg. Even THAT is a pretty chart. It rested there before. Also a trend line was there, so QQQ was still rather strong looking.
SPX – Notice 1924 is the 34 WMA. That was todays lows, for this weekly chart, that may end up THE weekly low if we go higher Thursday and Friday.
And I already had shown this one of the IWC
So when everyone is talking about a bubble and a top, its usually not quite time yet.
FINALLY – I wanted to show The history of $RUT – how it had all those factors that people were using to say that markets had to drop. It had a “Closing below the 50sma ” or “Breaking down” etc.
so here was RUT – Breaking below the 50SMA & trend-line break. Did it collapse from here?
Here is after a year went by… was kind of just building a cup
RUT AGAIN a little later & The first week of OCTOBER! ….OCT 3 , 2011 – Breaking down, Crash coming? More topping action?
Even I would have thought this was…it broke a trend line and back tested it. I’d likely be short here. Well…
OCT 3 , 2011 and beyond- that was THE LOWS where I would have been short ?
My point in all of that as I drew these up this morning was all about the “TIMING”. Sentiment, Oversold, Individual stocks (And some Miners) were still looking good and setting up , plus….It was a FED MINUTES DAY! Crazy things can happen. The un-expected so Stay Frosty. That was the intent of my report.
Wasn’t the sentiment getting so dismal and negative, ( especially in Miners though ) yet many stocks still looked ok. MBLY, GPRO, CENX, LAKE, etc etc- Its good to just be ready for whatever happens.
I was watching the Miners like a Hawk at 2 p.m. Eastern, and they had started moving up Before that. I actually thought to myself, “They are trying to sucker the longs in and then this floor will drop out, $Gold down to 1179 & Then back up .”
Nope…it just took off and volume starting pouring in. Follow thru was steady and no real pullbacks were forming along the way. It looked like Shorts were caught and a short covering rally was unfolding. I just feel that MIners is the place to be for a bit here.
I want you to think about this-
If this price DROPS Thursday and then RISES FRI to close exactly where it is now = VERY BULLISH REVERSAL
If this Rises Thursday and Drops Friday (back to where it is now) = Very Bullish Reversal
If this price Rises Thursday AND Friday , with twice as much volume as this 1/2 week volume = Mind Blowing.
It only looks that easy ! 
Thanks for putting up with my long winded story, it is a true story and I just wanted to explain why I wasnt Tweeting out or posting here all day and especially after the release of the Fed Minutes. I had driven to my mothers house mid day to be closer to the dentist . Less Time needed to get there after the Fed. My morning charts were on my home computer and I was just watching closely from Fed Minutes on- the action was fast and exciting , crazy really. Friends were posting their thoughts and some believed the move was a head fake, others thought it had real zeal- the real deal. Many are still divided that way. EVEN if we drop tomorrow….It may be a buying opportunity, so I hope to have a few Miners charts drawn up in the Morning, before the open. Requests? Feel free to put any in the comments section.
Best to all!
~Alex
LOL… Dental hindsight, convenient!
Hi Tyler – They say there is pain before pleasure, right? : ) We’ll see
LOL… Dental hindsight, convenient!
Hi Tyler – They say there is pain before pleasure, right? : ) We’ll see
Why not simply play JNUG and a corresponding inverse?
Glmus- I think that is an excellent idea IF you can be in front of your screen or you can take the wild swings. JNUG , NUGT / JDST & DUST, GLL USLV , ZSL etc are very fast, so I often dont recommend them out loud, but if a reader feels comfortable in the Direction and risk involved…it can be rewarding.
I’m still wondering how you and Sandy get your names in red? : )
Why not simply play JNUG and a corresponding inverse?
Glmus- I think that is an excellent idea IF you can be in front of your screen or you can take the wild swings. JNUG , NUGT / JDST & DUST, GLL USLV , ZSL etc are very fast, so I often dont recommend them out loud, but if a reader feels comfortable in the Direction and risk involved…it can be rewarding.
I’m still wondering how you and Sandy get your names in red? : )
Thanks Alex, always a good read. Guess we now know the true definition of a chart freak. A guy who breaks a tooth and is in pain, makes a dental appointment, and then delays it for fed minutes :).
R41
R41 – LOL. I have seen so many whip saw Fed days (And even the day after Fed) that I just couldnt be in a dentist chair at that time with sentiment strongly pushing things ( unless there was no other alternative). Thankfully , He was able to switch the 2 p.m.with someone scheduled later, and pain releif was offered in the meantime .
Thanks for reading !
Thanks Alex, always a good read. Guess we now know the true definition of a chart freak. A guy who breaks a tooth and is in pain, makes a dental appointment, and then delays it for fed minutes :).
R41
R41 – LOL. I have seen so many whip saw Fed days (And even the day after Fed) that I just couldnt be in a dentist chair at that time with sentiment strongly pushing things ( unless there was no other alternative). Thankfully , He was able to switch the 2 p.m.with someone scheduled later, and pain releif was offered in the meantime .
Thanks for reading !
I”m not sure you,re quite forgiven… Way too loong a story. Also, I may well have doubled down with the insight of your pre/post Evans perspective. LOL. Those volume observations were everything. I was in for the excitement, after having sweated it out since friday nights ‘unbelievable buy’, under $10 in jnug.
Alex , how many screens you got running anyway?
Ahh, Mr. Beek , I keep telling myself “Less talk, More charts!” : ) I seriously had ignored Miners for most of Aug / Sept, until late Sept things just started to get emotional. Then I was stopped out 2x last week and it got really emotional, haha- so its not easy but I think these are those deep trade-able lows worth buying. Stay sharp & Time will tell. Nice to hear from you again.
I”m not sure you,re quite forgiven… Way too loong a story. Also, I may well have doubled down with the insight of your pre/post Evans perspective. LOL. Those volume observations were everything. I was in for the excitement, after having sweated it out since friday nights ‘unbelievable buy’, under $10 in jnug.
Alex , how many screens you got running anyway?
Ahh, Mr. Beek , I keep telling myself “Less talk, More charts!” : ) I seriously had ignored Miners for most of Aug / Sept, until late Sept things just started to get emotional. Then I was stopped out 2x last week and it got really emotional, haha- so its not easy but I think these are those deep trade-able lows worth buying. Stay sharp & Time will tell. Nice to hear from you again.
more important how might we measure the confidence in this move– DC,IC or maybe YCL, 1240, 1280 1320+
Jeez- Got it! Colorblind here.
Thanks as always…
Questions of YCL, ICL, and DCL are for your Cycle guys. I use my GUT / certain other indicators/ and the cycle guys
: ) For readers unfamiliar, there is a Yearly Cycle low (YCL) – the low of that year…and a deep , very trade-able Investing low (ICL) or just a DCL…a daily cycle low that bounces or rallies as lows roughly around 25 trading days -depending on “timing” .
more important how might we measure the confidence in this move– DC,IC or maybe YCL, 1240, 1280 1320+
Jeez- Got it! Colorblind here.
Thanks as always…
Questions of YCL, ICL, and DCL are for your Cycle guys. I use my GUT / certain other indicators/ and the cycle guys
: ) For readers unfamiliar, there is a Yearly Cycle low (YCL) – the low of that year…and a deep , very trade-able Investing low (ICL) or just a DCL…a daily cycle low that bounces or rallies as lows roughly around 25 trading days -depending on “timing” .
Alex thanks for the detail interesting insight!
Thank You Sandy, for stopping by and commenting!
Alex thanks for the detail interesting insight!
Thank You Sandy, for stopping by and commenting!
I asked a professional chartist and miners guy who is well known if he is preparing a strategy when this was THE low. it was a higher low in Gold. he does not. he will sell existing positions in strength and waiting for lower lows to come. a upmove without lower lows would surprise many. moreover he says gdx, gdxj etc. do not look right for an furhter and steady upmove. i am preparing for the steady up move and i bought some stocks too.
Gerhard – For me, it is and it certainly has been too hard to predict where final lows will be. OFTEN you do see prior lows “TESTED”, and I like to see the lows taken out (A stop run) assuming that the big Boys, Market akers need to run those stops to gather larger positions, but ANYTHING can happen.
I do NOT rule out Gold $1000, since it looks like a test of 2008 area for support and I’ve seen signs of deflation in OIL, Coal , Metals other areas. When will That change? Inflation ?
I also feel that the markets are AHEAD of those changes, . Smart Money gets in early & you see the changes ahead of the curve, so I also do NOT rule out June 2013 as The lows and repeated testing allows Big Money to soak up a larger position. So I really just try to take it step by step & “Time Will Tell” . Thanks for your input!
I asked a professional chartist and miners guy who is well known if he is preparing a strategy when this was THE low. it was a higher low in Gold. he does not. he will sell existing positions in strength and waiting for lower lows to come. a upmove without lower lows would surprise many. moreover he says gdx, gdxj etc. do not look right for an furhter and steady upmove. i am preparing for the steady up move and i bought some stocks too.
Gerhard – For me, it is and it certainly has been too hard to predict where final lows will be. OFTEN you do see prior lows “TESTED”, and I like to see the lows taken out (A stop run) assuming that the big Boys, Market akers need to run those stops to gather larger positions, but ANYTHING can happen.
I do NOT rule out Gold $1000, since it looks like a test of 2008 area for support and I’ve seen signs of deflation in OIL, Coal , Metals other areas. When will That change? Inflation ?
I also feel that the markets are AHEAD of those changes, . Smart Money gets in early & you see the changes ahead of the curve, so I also do NOT rule out June 2013 as The lows and repeated testing allows Big Money to soak up a larger position. So I really just try to take it step by step & “Time Will Tell” . Thanks for your input!
Great post, Alex. I was busy after the Fed minutes AND will be busy again this morning. Timing, you say???????? 🙂
Rob – Timing, yes, Timing….What could you possibly be doing during FED MINUTES? lol Hope you’re having fun in Ur new College courses – THAT may have been your best lesson. FED MINUTES = leave early
Great post, Alex. I was busy after the Fed minutes AND will be busy again this morning. Timing, you say???????? 🙂
Rob – Timing, yes, Timing….What could you possibly be doing during FED MINUTES? lol Hope you’re having fun in Ur new College courses – THAT may have been your best lesson. FED MINUTES = leave early
Er, Alex …you don’t eat the crunchy outside of the pistachio. Yo
Really? THAT explains a lot!! ha ha 🙂
Er, Alex …you don’t eat the crunchy outside of the pistachio. Yo
Really? THAT explains a lot!! ha ha 🙂
Thanks! Again!
Ur Welcome Liza : )
Thanks! Again!
Ur Welcome Liza : )